According to institutional analysis, the recent rise in pig prices, is not the end market appeared retaliatory consumption performance, remember last October, pig prices plummeted to the bottom, the market is about to fall to 5 yuan / kg, by the falling temperatures, the price of pork generally fell to 7 ~ 8 yuan / kg, consumers curing activities forward, the end of the consumer significantly boosted consumption, which supported the basis of last year's 3 quarters of the retaliatory rise in pig prices!
But now, the domestic north and south areas, hot temperatures, more precipitation, although, the domestic mask problem gradually improved, the consumer market rebounded slightly, but, food and beverage consumption is still in the off-season, for the lack of effective support for the rise in hog prices, so this round of hog prices is not a consumption boost, but in the market hogs tense!
As we all know, at the end of June last year, the domestic sow inventory reached a stage high of 45.64 million, and last year, August to September, pig prices continued to dive, the average price of hogs in early October fell to about 10.53 yuan / kg, therefore, August to September, the market panic, the breeding side of the sows to speed up the depopulation of the stockpile, and the sow stockpile affects the size of the 10-month-old hogs, so The pig price was excessively low in August ~ September last year, the breeding side of the substantial losses, the sow stock centralized clearing, which also caused the 6 ~ July, the pig supply tight fundamentals, especially, in July, the pig slaughter ring or further reduction in the amount!
And into December last year, pig prices briefly rushed high after the market bearish mood intensified, institutions, analysts, and farmers generally bearish 2022 second quarter pig price expectations, therefore, the end of last year and the beginning of this year, the breeding end of the capacity to accelerate the pace of de-capacitation, piglet replenishment of the enthusiasm for bias, superimposed on the winter epidemic phenomenon of the farms to increase the survival rate of piglets bias, which further aggravate the stage of the The pressure of hog supply!
And after the Spring Festival of the Year of the Tiger, pig prices were slow to stop falling, the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the international grain prices soared, the domestic soybean meal prices climbed sharply, feed costs rose too fast, the farmers pressed the barn sentiment weakened, the low and medium standard pigs in advance of the exits! In the second quarter of the weight of the pig source inventory further reduction, and the second fattening bullish mood turned strong, bottoming out in the low standard pig phenomenon increased, superimposed on the price of pigs bottoming out, farmers weakened the pressure of the fence, the soybean meal market gradually cooled down, the market aggravated pressure on the fence mood, the pig source of supply to further contraction!
Entering June, pig prices continued to climb, farmers chasing up emotions further fermentation, scale pig enterprises out of the plan to complete the weakening of enthusiasm, the control of the price of emotions soaring, the slaughterhouse to the plant pig sources further reduced in order to meet the daily orders, although, the consumer market to follow up poor, but, the slaughtering enterprises were forced to raise the price of the amount of protection, the domestic price of pigs in the counter-trend in the strong, at the end of June, the price of pigs smoothly rose above 10 yuan! / catty, stage, pig prices rose to 8.48 yuan / kg, an increase of more than 72%!
Now, pig prices are rising, in the support of the consumer market, pig prices rose smoothly into the "10 yuan era", but, too fast rise will also exacerbate the risk of the market in the late stage, alert the market to appear 2 new changes!
One, the second quarter of the lobbying bottom, the second fattening phenomenon increased! Accompanied by a sharp rise in pig prices and market optimism for the late pig prices, the second fertilization quite into the market, short-term plunge in the low standard pig phenomenon increased, at present, the market is still the second fertilization fill in the phenomenon of about 105 ~ 110 kg of commercial pigs, and the second fertilization accounted for a gradual increase in the impact on the late price of pigs will be significantly greater, due to the hot weather, consumers for the acceptance of the big pigs to turn bad, once, the second fertilization concentrated in the market, the market will be the first time in the future. Secondary fattening concentrated out of the market, the market supply of pigs gradually loose, pig prices have short-term downward pressure!
The second, pig prices rose too quickly, the normal rhythm of production at the breeding end was disrupted, two sows as well as piglets to replenish the high mood, for the medium and long term price of pigs there is a clear inhibition! At present, the domestic sow inventory depopulation is not complete, at the end of May, the sow inventory reached 41.92 million heads, an increase of 0.4% from the previous year, the sow inventory has been in the normal retention of more than 41 million heads, the sow inventory depopulation is not complete, and the pig price is rising too fast, further aggravating the expansion of the capital, the market in 4 quarters of the market supply of pig sources or will be loose, due to the normalization of the domestic mask problem, pork consumption support is limited. It is expected that, before the end of the year, pig prices may be less than expected, June to July pig prices are afraid to become the high point of the year's pig prices!
8.48 yuan! The price of hogs rose "new heights", what happened? The market is alert to 2 new changes! In this regard, how do we see it? The above is the author's personal views, pictures from the network, content for reference only!
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