In terms of sheep price, after the National Day, with the recovery of consumption, the price of sheep once stopped falling and rebounded, but recently the rebound of sheep price was blocked, and the quotations of the two major mutton sheep producing areas fell back.
In terms of food price, the price of corn and wheat is separated, the decline of wheat is intensified, and the price of corn is still rising steadily.
Finally, the price of urea, which had been falling for several days, rose again.
First of all, the warning of pork collapse
According to the pig price system, on June 20th, 165438+, the pig price dropped widely. According to the pig dealer's quotation, Henan dropped to 0.6 yuan, Anhui dropped to 0.7 yuan, Jiangsu dropped to 0.3 yuan, the northeast dropped to 0.25-0.3 yuan, the east dropped to 0. 1.225 yuan, and the north dropped to 0. 175.
The decline in the price of live pigs is an important reason for the agency to issue an early warning of pork collapse, but it is only one of the reasons. In addition, there is the following logic:
1. According to the previous data of domestic fertile sows and the second fattening situation, it is estimated that from June 165438+ 10 to February 65438+2, the slaughter amount of pigs in medium and large pig farms will increase by about 2. 1%, and the slaughter weight of pigs will increase slightly.
However, the output of the second fattening pig will increase by 15% and the weight will increase by 9.2%.
Considering the habit of free-range farmers selling pigs in winter, it is estimated that the pork supply will increase by 26% compared with the average supply from August to June.
2. "Guaranteed supply and stable price" has always existed. Recently, a spokesman for the International Development and Reform Commission said that in the future, the market dynamics of live pigs will be closely collected, and reserve meat will be put in time, and efforts will be intensified if necessary.
3. Pork consumption is "difficult in peak season". On the one hand, the centralized consumption demand of pork catering is weak because of the blockade. On the other hand, because the income of residents has been affected in recent years, young people are more accustomed to eating fresh meat, have no habit of hoarding meat, and are not particularly cold about pork.
The next pork supply and demand will be in a state of "increasing supply and decreasing demand", and the pork price will continue to weaken with great probability.
However, the recent release of fertilizer will weaken the supply pressure of pigs at the end of the year and form a certain support for the price of pigs at the end of the year.
Second, the price differentiation between corn and wheat.
The latest price shows that corn prices are still rising strongly, and the downward trend of wheat prices is intensifying.
165438+1On October 20th, deep processing enterprises in Shandong, North China and Northeast China raised the price of corn 10-20 yuan/ton, but flour milling enterprises in Shandong and Henan lowered the purchase price of wheat by 0.3-0.7 points.
Corn prices remain firm because transportation has not fully recovered, and the concentration of the corn market has not yet appeared, and enterprises are eager to replenish their stocks. The remaining vehicles of Shandong deep processing enterprises have dropped sharply in the morning, leaving less than 300 vehicles.
Then, at present, the purchase price of corn directly under the grain depot in many places in Northeast China is 1.35- 1.4 yuan. This operation has ignited the bull market in Northeast China, and grassroots farmers are reluctant to sell, so enterprises can only raise prices with the pace of grain depots.
We have repeatedly stressed that the trend of corn prices must focus on the recovery of transportation. The longer the current situation drags on, the more it will contribute to the rise of corn prices. Considering the expected reduction of new grain production, it is difficult for corn prices to fall sharply in the short to medium term.
The main reason why flour milling enterprises depress the price of wheat is that with the increase of wheat price, the pace of grain production of grass-roots farmers and traders is accelerated, and the difficulty of grain collection for enterprises is reduced.
But don't lose heart, the market price of wheat has no basis for a sharp drop:
1. After the price of wheat stops rising and falls, the quantity of wheat is bound to decrease, and the decline of wheat price is unsustainable.
In the next two months, the demand for flour will be gradually strengthened.
3. Recently, the premium of wheat auction is obvious, and the market has a high acceptance of high-priced wheat.
The continuous strength of corn price has caused the wheat price to bottom out.
Some organizations predict that the price of wheat will rise again before the end of the year, and the price quoted by flour enterprises may even reach 1.7 yuan. We will wait and see the specific situation.
Third, the rebound of sheep prices was blocked.
The latest quotation of Shandong bird's nest shows that the small-tailed Han sheep kebabs 120- 140 kg, 13.5- 13.3 yuan/kg, Xinmin sheep 125- 130 kg,/kloc-.
The latest quotation in Tangxian County, Hebei Province shows that the small-tailed Han sheep kebab 120- 140 kg, 13.4- 13. 1 yuan/kg, Xinmin sheep kebab125-/kloc-.
It can be found that the quotations of live sheep in the two major mutton sheep producing areas have declined.
After the National Day, due to the increase of mutton consumption demand, the supply of live sheep declined, and the price of live sheep once stopped falling and rebounded. The average price of sheep has increased 1-2 yuan, and one sheep can be sold more 150 yuan. Although farmers are still losing money, the losses are getting bigger and bigger.
So what caused the recent rebound in sheep prices to be blocked?
1, the price of pigs fell, and the price of sheep was not supported enough.
2. Although the price of sheep has rebounded, the increase in feed prices has kept sheep in a state of loss. With the recovery of sheep prices, some farmers began to eliminate ewes in order to stop losses.
3. The price of mutton is close to that of 40 yuan, and the catering industry is also depressed, so the consumption of mutton at the end is restrained.
As we said before, although the price of sheep has increased, the stock of live sheep in the market is still at a high level. It will take about half a year to completely change the loss of sheep raising, that is, it is possible to turn sheep raising from loss to profit in May and June next year.
Fourth, the price of urea has gone up again.
Although the demand for agricultural urea is in the off-season, the price of urea in the domestic market is rising again, and the price in the mainstream market is 10-40 yuan/ton, including Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, Heilongjiang, Guangxi, Guangdong and other places.
The direct logic of urea price increase is that it will increase in the near future, and the indirect logic is as follows:
1, coal prices continue to be firm, and urea production costs are at a high level.
2. The compound fertilizer market is developing well, the dealers are operating obviously, and the number of enterprises is increasing, which drives the demand for urea to increase.
3. In the process of storing fertilizer in winter, agricultural demand has improved.
4. The export news has a strong hype atmosphere.
Considering that the current price of urea is relatively high, and the price fluctuation is mostly market operation, and it has not sunk to the terminal, it is unlikely that urea will continue to rise.