Fourth, real estate sales were basically in line with expectations, with single-month sales growth recovering to -2.1%. Possibly containing a backfill effect on the epidemic shutdown period, new construction and land acquisition rose significantly faster. Construction and completion continued along the established trend of construction falling back and completion rising, but with little relative change.
Fifth, the rate of decline in consumption continues to narrow. One of the food and beverage is still -30% negative growth, the future room for improvement a little more. Retail has three areas more eye-catching: grain, oil and food continue to nearly 20% high growth; communication equipment (cell phone) further accelerated to 12.2%; automobile zero growth, but compared to the previous three months -30% growth significantly better. In addition, must-have consumer goods and real estate-based consumer durables also improved.
Sixth, employment generally lags slightly behind the economy, and the urban survey unemployment rate rose this month. This year, the pressure on employment comes from three levels, and may be throughout the year. Therefore, the policy is also more clear to "guarantee employment" as the first of the six guarantees.
Seventh, the economy in March-April is in a more typical "recovery period", basically all industries are compared to the January-February "pendulum period" improvement. The subsequent aggregate data may rise further, but at the same time accompanied by structural differentiation: infrastructure is expected to continue to improve, most areas of consumption will continue to improve, real estate, export areas may be hovering sway. Watch for structural clues in the economy.
In line with indicators such as power generation and coal consumption pointing in the same direction, industrial data continued to improve in April; the decline in the service sector production index narrowed, but remained in the negative growth range. This also means that implied real GDP growth is picking up in April, but at a lower rate than industrial growth. coal consumption by the six major groups narrowed to a -13% growth rate in April, from -20% in March, while power generation growth in April, released today, picked up to 0.3% from -4.6% in March. The two figures basically correspond to the industrial value added rose to 3.9% from -1.1% in March.
The services production index also trended better in April, narrowing from a -9.1% decline to -4.5%. The degree of recovery of the service sector as a whole is lower than the industry, in particular, catering, transportation, wholesale and retail three industries to form a pull-down, so the current is still in the negative growth range. coal consumption in the first week of May power generation and real estate sales in 30 cities has been restored to 97.5% of the same period last year, while the national food and beverage, lodging industry, the size of the consumption of the same period last year only recovered to about 70%; Tourism market recovered to 50% of the same period.
This structure means that the implied real GDP growth in April is likely to be lower than the growth of industrial value added (in addition to the relatively more stable agriculture, the composition of GDP is mainly industry, construction and services).
Which sectors are driving industrial value added? Compared with March, the improvement was evident in special equipment, general equipment, electrical machinery, automobiles, non-metallic mineral manufacturing (cement), and agri-food processing. In addition, in line with the signals from the export sector, the growth rate of microcomputer production rose sharply. There are several macro clues behind these industry performances. If you look at the industry structure of industrial value added, there is a category of growth has been higher, such as computer communications and other electronic equipment; there is a category of overall low growth and negative growth, such as textile and apparel, electricity and heat.
Compared with March, special-purpose equipment (14.3% in April, March -2.2%), general-purpose equipment (7.5% in April, March -5.4%), electrical machinery (9% in April, March -0.4%), automobiles (5.8% in April, March -22.4%), non-metallic mineral manufacturing (4.2% in April, March -4.5%), agricultural and food processing (April 3%, March March -4.8%) and other industries improved significantly in year-on-year growth.
Computer communications and other electronic equipment grew 11.8% in April, up from 9.9% in March. Among them, the smartphone (April -2.0%, March -0.7%), mobile communications phone (April -15.2%, March -9%) production in April year-on-year growth rate lower than in March; integrated circuits (April 29%, March 20%) production year-on-year growth rate higher than in March; microelectronic computers year-on-year growth rate rose rapidly (26.2% in April, March 0%).
This is consistent with export signals, as exports of "automatic data processing equipment and parts thereof" (tablets, laptops, etc.) rebounded sharply in April, which we understand to reflect "scenario demand" for quarantine and online offices during the epidemic. "
Simply put.
Simply put, the industry that drove industrial value added in April may come from a few clues:
First, infrastructure projects are heating up, so the production side of the general equipment, special equipment, non-metal (cement) and other industries to power up.
Second, durable consumption and some essential consumption repair, so automobile, electrical machinery (home appliance part), agricultural and sideline products processing and other industries ringing recovery.
Third, policy-oriented and scenario-driven, so integrated circuits, microcomputers and other industries continue to lift the growth rate.
Fixed asset investment continues to repair, of which the structure is infrastructure real estate guide. Infrastructure investment in a single month growth rate rebounded to 4.8%, leading the role of obvious; real estate investment in a single month growth of 7%, also significantly exceeded expectations. The downturn in manufacturing investment is related to the low growth of investment in some external demand and consumption sectors.
The cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment recovered from -16.1% in March to -10.3%.
Among them, the rebound of infrastructure investment is particularly obvious, the cumulative growth rate of investment from March -16.4% to -8.8%, the implied single-month growth rate has been to 4.8%, leading the role of significant.
The cumulative growth rate of real estate investment narrowed from -7.7% in March to -3.3%, and the implied single-month growth rate was 7%, which also exceeded expectations.
The growth rate of manufacturing investment narrowed from -25.2% in March to -18.8%, which is still significantly low in the overall investment structure. This is related to the low growth of investment in some external demand and consumption sectors, such as textile investment accumulated -32.5% and automobile manufacturing investment was -22.9%. Investment in these sectors is also improving, but at a lower rate than the overall.
Real estate sales were largely in line with expectations, with one-month sales growth recovering to -2.1%. Possibly including the backfill effect on the epidemic shutdown period, new construction and land acquisition rose significantly faster. Construction and completion continued along the established trend of construction falling back and completion rising, but with little relative change.
The cumulative growth rate of real estate sales area narrowed to -19.3% from -26.3% in March, and the implied one-month growth rate recovered to -2.1%. This situation is basically compounded expectations. Our previous report "resumption rate, employment and cement prices" also pointed out that the first week of May 30 city real estate sales recovered to about 97.5% of the same period last year.
Land acquisition and construction starts also recovered faster. The cumulative growth rate of new construction has narrowed from -27.2% to -18.4%, and the single-month growth rate has risen to -1.3%. Land acquisition narrowed sharply from -22.6% to -12%, with a one-month growth rate of 13.8%. The rise in new construction and land acquisition is related to relatively easier credit conditions and may also contain a backfill effect for the epidemic shutdown period.
The cumulative growth rate of construction area fell to 2.5% from 2.6% in March, and the cumulative growth rate of completed area narrowed to -14.5% from -15.8% in March, generally along the trend of cumulative growth rate of construction falling back and completion picking up, but the relative change is not significant.
The rate of decline in consumption continues to narrow. One of the food and beverage is still -30% or so negative growth, the future room for improvement a little more. There are three areas of retailing that are more eye-catching: grain, oil and food continue to grow at nearly 20%, communication equipment (cell phones) growth has further accelerated to 12.2%, and automobiles have zero growth, a significant improvement over the -30% growth in the previous three months. In addition, must-have consumer goods and real estate-based consumer durables have also improved.
Total retail sales of consumer goods grew at a rate of -7.5%, a significant improvement from -15.8% in March. Among them, the growth rate of food and beverage from -46.8% rebounded to -31.1%, that is to say, compared with the same period last year is still down 30%, the medium and long term space is larger; retail from -12.0% narrowed to -4.6%.
There are three areas of retailing that are more eye-catching: first, food, oil and foodstuffs, which continues to maintain a high growth rate of nearly 20%, with a growth rate of 18.2% in April, only slightly lower than the 19.2% in March; second, communication equipment (cell phones), with a growth rate further accelerated from 6.5% in March to 12.2%; and third, automobiles, which saw a zero-growth rate in April, which is a significant improvement over the -30% growth in the previous three months.
All three consumer durables segments of the real estate family continued to grow negatively, but the year-on-year decline has narrowed significantly: -8.5% for home appliances (-29.7% in March), -5.4% for furniture (-22.7% in March), and -5.8% for décor (-13.9% in March).
Cosmetics, which grew at a rate of 3.5% in April (-11.6% in March), and household goods, which grew at a rate of 8.3% (0.3% in March), also improved. However, there is still a significant gap from the trend value at the end of last year.
Employment generally lags slightly behind the economy, with the urban survey unemployment rate rising in April. This year, the employment pressure comes from three levels, may be throughout the year. Therefore, the policy is also more clear to "protect employment" as the first of the six guarantees.
The survey unemployment rate was 6.0% in April, up from 5.9% in March.
This year, the employment pressure comes from three levels, may be throughout the year: (1) the number of college graduates rose, amounting to 8.7 million; (2) the export industry chain is generally labor-intensive industries, and this year, the export industry chain, especially textile and clothing and other employment-absorbing industries there is a decline in the pressure of the order; (3) the epidemic prevention and control of the normalization of the catering and other services to restore the degree of insufficient to bring a certain degree of employment pressure. Employment pressure.
So the policy is also clearer to "protect employment" as the "six guarantees" first.
In March-April, the economy was in a typical "recovery period", with basically all sectors improving over the January-February "pause". Subsequent aggregate data may rise further, but accompanied by structural divergence: infrastructure is expected to continue to improve, consumption will continue to improve in most areas, real estate, exports may be swaying. Pay attention to the structural clues of the economy.
According to our framework of "pause period - repair period - differentiation period - stabilization period", the epidemic caused the economy to be in a certain sense of the "pause period" in February; thereafter, in March-April, with the restoration of transportation and logistics conditions, improved consumption conditions, and the rate of resumption of work to promote, basically, the economy is in the "pause period", the economy is in the "pause period". After March-April, with the restoration of transportation and logistics conditions, improved consumption conditions, and the advancement of the resumption rate, basically all industries have improved compared with January-February. after April, the resumption of work is basically completed, and continue to repair the main consumption environment. Subsequent total data may rise further, but due to the epidemic prevention and control of normalization phase of social radius there are certain constraints, coupled with the constraints of the downward trend of foreign demand orders, the industry may enter a stage of differentiation.
Infrastructure set a clear tone, coupled with the acceleration of project approvals in March-April, the expansion of special bonds and medium- and long-term loans, it is estimated that the follow-up will be a further rebound; the trend of rebound in the service category of consumption is more certain; the mandatory consumption in the current existence of compensatory consumption, higher growth rate of food, etc., the follow-up may be the end of the impulse to fall back to the norm; daily necessities, cosmetics, etc., by the scene, may continue to recover; Consumer durables may exist in the consumer environment to improve, the old reform and completion of the upward impulse driven, but home appliances and so on will also be partially subject to export constraints; real estate, export sector is less certain, there may be a short-term data swing.
Core assumptions risk: macroeconomic changes exceeded expectations, overseas economic changes exceeded expectations
This article is written by Guo Lei, from Guo Lei Macro Tea House, original title: "GF Macro Guo Lei which industries are pulling industrial value added"