I. Macroeconomic analysis
In 2008, the overall economic situation in China was better than expected. Judging from the development trend, the economic operation will be in a relatively normal green light area, and the possibility of "overheating" and "cooling" in China economy is relatively small. The positive factors mainly include: (1) the change of local government, and the institutional impulse of investment growth still exists. The historical data since the reform and opening up show that in the second year of the change of government, the investment in China will have an accelerated growth. Before the performance appraisal system has changed fundamentally, the institutional factors that stimulate investment through the transition effect still exist. This year is the first year of the new government, and we expect that the enthusiasm of all localities for economic development will still be relatively high, which will greatly promote investment growth. (2) The profits of enterprises in most industries have increased rapidly, and the capital situation is good, which has laid a good capital foundation for investment expansion. Although the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased in the first quarter, excluding four industries, such as petroleum processing and electric power, the profit growth rate of other industries (37.5%) is still accelerating, with a year-on-year increase of 6. 1 percentage point. In addition, the investment funds in place in the first quarter are also relatively good, and the urban fixed assets investment funds increased by 25.2%, still maintaining a relatively high growth rate. (3) The restoration and reconstruction of infrastructure in the affected southern provinces will also increase new investment demand. (4) Entrepreneur confidence index remains high. The results of the national business climate survey show that the entrepreneur confidence index (140.6) remained at a high level in the first quarter, which was the same as that in the last quarter. 56.0% of entrepreneurs are optimistic about the overall operation of their industry in 2008, and 6 1. 1% of entrepreneurs believe that the production and operation of enterprises will remain good in 2008, which shows that most entrepreneurs are still full of confidence in the current and future macroeconomic development.
Second, the industry environment analysis
In 2006, the macroeconomic situation continued to improve, and the income level of residents increased significantly. Under the background of this stable macroeconomic situation, the scale of China's construction industry has steadily expanded, the production situation has maintained a good momentum, and various indicators have reached new heights. The pace of structural adjustment in the construction industry has been accelerated, the transformation of production mode has been gradually carried out, and the market competition is still fierce. The gross output value of the national construction industry reached 4,097.55 billion yuan, an increase of 18.59% over the previous year. Completed the output value of 260510.23 billion yuan, an increase of 9.2%; The total profit reached 107 1 100 million yuan, an increase of 18% over the same period last year.
In 2006, the construction market with national key projects, urban public transportation and other infrastructure construction, real estate development, transportation energy construction, modern manufacturing development and new socialist countryside construction as the main body showed great vitality; The Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, the regional construction around Bohai Bay, the development of the western region and the revitalization of the northeast industrial zone are still the most prosperous construction markets. The strong position of the production level and ability of the construction industry in developed areas has been further consolidated and developed; The structural adjustment of large and medium-sized construction enterprises has been further developed; The foreign construction market is developing rapidly, and the market level and regional scope are more optimized.
In 2006, investment in fixed assets grew rapidly, and the growth rate dropped. The investment in fixed assets of the whole society was 1.9870 billion yuan, an increase of 24.0% over the previous year and a decrease of 1.7 percentage points. In 2006, the investment in real estate development was193.82 billion yuan, an increase of 2 1.8% over the previous year, 0.9 percentage points faster. The steady growth of investment in fixed assets has laid a solid foundation for the active construction market. Generally speaking, the demand for products in China's construction industry has been on the rise, especially in recent years, the construction and completed area of construction enterprises has increased steadily, indicating that the demand for residential construction in the whole society is increasing and the development potential of residential construction is huge. The supply situation of China's construction industry is: the total growth is stable, the speed remains stable, and it is in an adjustment period; The changing trend of supply structure is reflected in the increase of infrastructure supply and the proper control of real estate development supply.
The overall characteristics and development trend of economic operation in 2006 will continue into 2007. In 2007, China's economic development will still maintain a high growth rate, but the development will be more stable. The steady economic development in 2007 undoubtedly provided a good development environment for the construction industry, which was greatly affected by the national economic development cycle.
In 2007, the development of construction industry will still maintain the development speed of 18%, and such rapid growth will bring good prospects to the development of construction industry. However, the development of the construction industry is also facing problems such as waste of resource allocation and unbalanced regional development. At the same time, due to the overall increase in building materials prices in 2007, the cost pressure has increased and the profit margin has been further compressed.
First, the company background analysis
China National Color Corporation is a stock of China Nonferrous Metals Construction Co., Ltd. ..
(A) a brief analysis of the operating conditions
According to the financial data of the latest reporting period, the company's turnover increased significantly compared with the same period of last year, and its operating income was 65,438+0,777,683 yuan, an increase of 65,438+065,438+02.56% compared with the same period of last year. Operating profit was 429,068,000 yuan, up 65,438+030.63% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was1706.34 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97.48%.
The capital construction of Chifeng Zhongseku Bohongye Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. was completed and put into production, which further improved the zinc metal industry chain of the company. As the company's two main businesses, the role of resource development and project contracting is more and more obvious.
Tumurting-Aobao zinc mine in Mongolia, which is controlled by the company, has overcome the difficulties in climate and transportation. * * * Produce 55,000 tons (dry tons) of zinc concentrate and sell 58,400 tons (dry tons) of zinc concentrate. The production situation is stable, which brings stable income to the company.
(II) Analysis of the company's main business
1. Main business contents and business strategy: The company is mainly engaged in international engineering contracting, development of aluminum-zinc-based nonferrous metal resources at home and abroad, international technology contracting, international labor cooperation, import and export, etc. International project contracting has always been the company's main business. The company's business mainly drives the export of domestic complete sets of equipment and technical services by exporting China's non-ferrous metal industry technology. The company successfully developed and implemented such projects in the international market, and exported a large number of domestic complete sets of mechanical equipment and technical services, which created good economic benefits for the company. In recent years, according to the needs of China's economic development and changes in the market environment, our company adheres to the "going out" strategy and "resource strategy", and at the same time takes various measures to develop domestic and foreign non-ferrous metal resources, and continues to accelerate the transformation from a single engineering contracting enterprise to a resource-based enterprise. Project contracting and resource development promote each other and develop together. Our company will walk on two legs and accelerate development. At present, the above strategy has achieved initial results, and the company has made great progress in both project contracting and resource development.
2. The projects currently being implemented by the company include:
● The electrolytic aluminum project in Kazakhstan is a new project signed by our company in 2005. It is planned to be partially put into operation at the end of 2007 and completed in August 2008. Therefore, this project is the key project implemented by our company this year. During the reporting period, the equipment delivery and site construction progressed smoothly, and the project settlement amount was large, with a turnover of 676.888 million yuan.
● During the reporting period, our company provided construction and installation services under the contract for the project of Arak electrolytic aluminum plant in Iran. The first batch of electrolyzers of this project has been electrified and put into production, which has been well received by the owners. It is expected that the first phase of the project will be put into production this year. During the reporting period, the turnover of the project was RMB 55.785 million.
● During the reporting period, the civil works of each subproject of the smelter of Shengquan Copper Mine Project in Vietnam have been basically completed, and all the project equipment has been delivered. It is expected to be completed and put into operation in the second half of the year. During the reporting period, the turnover of the project was RMB 65,438+09,525,000.
The general contract for the vertical shaft project of kcm copper mine in Zambia was signed on June 65438+1October 65438+August 2006, with a contract amount of 37.5 million US dollars. During the reporting period, the project is stepping up, the site construction and equipment procurement are progressing smoothly, and the turnover in the first half of the year is 5,365,438+028,000 yuan.
3. The company has signed contracts or agreements, but the projects that have not been implemented or come into effect include:
● Iran Silwan Electrolytic Aluminum Factory Project: On March 2, 2006, Kloc-0, our company signed a general contract with Iran Wasid Silwan Aluminum Company (the project owner) in Tehran. According to the contract, the company will be responsible for all the design, equipment procurement, civil engineering, installation and commissioning of the Iranian Silwan 250,000 tons/year electrolytic aluminum plant, with a total contract amount of 998 million US dollars (see the announcement published in china securities journal on March 30, 2006 for details). At present, the contract has not yet come into effect.
● Saudi Jizan electrolytic aluminum project: In April, 2007, 19, Japanese company, China Machinery Industry Group Corporation and Saudi Western Industrial Development Corporation jointly signed the framework agreement of Saudi Jizan electrolytic aluminum project. With the support of the Saudi government, this project is to build an alumina plant with an annual output of 65,438+600,000 tons in Jizan, southeast Saudi Arabia. Our company will be the general contractor to undertake the alumina plant and electrolytic aluminum plant of this project, and SINOMACH will be the contractor of the wharf and power plant designated by Saudi Western Company. For details of this project, please refer to the relevant announcements published by our company in china securities journal and Juchao Information Online on May 25th, 2007.
(3) A description of the company's own operation.
1. The situation and reasons of major changes in the profitability of the main business compared with the same period of last year.
Because the gross profit margin of Kazakh electrolytic aluminum project implemented by the company during the reporting period was lower than that of Iran Arak electrolytic aluminum project in the same period last year, the gross profit margin of contracted engineering business decreased during the reporting period compared with the same period last year;
Since Chifeng Zhongsekubohongye Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. was completed and put into operation during the reporting period, and the gross profit margin of zinc smelting business engaged by the company was much lower than that of Mongolian zinc mining and dressing business, the gross profit margin of this business decreased compared with the same period of last year;
Other businesses are mainly the leasing business of China Nonferrous Building and the trading and power generation business of other holding subsidiaries. Due to the increase in gross profit margin of the company's trading business, the comprehensive gross profit margin of this kind of business has increased compared with the same period of last year.
Compared with the same period of last year, the proportion of the company's investment income increased, mainly due to the transfer income generated by the company's transfer of all the shares of its holding subsidiary Shenzhen Nanyou Hotel Co., Ltd. during the reporting period, while there was no equity transfer in the same period of last year.
2, the company's evaluation of itself
At present, the company is in the fastest developing stage since its establishment. Whether it is resource development or contracting engineering projects, these two main businesses will have a greater impact on the stability of the company's operating performance. The company's contracted projects are progressing smoothly, and several contracted projects or cooperation agreements have been signed. However, at present, the only non-ferrous metal resource project is the Mongolian zinc mine project, and the further development of the resource project has a great impact on the long-term development of the company. To this end, the company has increased its resource holdings in various ways, and expanded the industrial chain of related resource varieties when conditions permit, so that the company has a complete and stable development trend in resource business.
In recent years, the RMB exchange rate continues to appreciate, and the export tax rebate rate has dropped again and again, which has a certain impact on the company's operation. On the basis of the measures taken at present, the company will further reduce the risks caused by exchange rate fluctuations by modifying the project settlement currency, speeding up the collection and settlement of foreign exchange, adjusting the procurement structure at home and abroad, and strengthening financial management by using financial instruments. At the same time, the company will continue to seriously study the national export policy, adjust and optimize the product structure, make full use of the national preferential policies for export commodities, and resolve the impact of the decline in export tax rebate rate on the company.
Market value estimation of verb (verb's abbreviation)
I am going to use the market price/net profit ratio model in the relative value model, that is, the so-called price-earnings ratio model, to estimate the intrinsic value of China National Color Shares. (P/E ratio = price per share/net income per share)
The stock price model using P/E ratio is as follows:
Value per share of target enterprise = P/E ratio × net profit per share (dividend per share)
The model assumes that the stock market price is a certain multiple of the net income per share, and the greater the net income per share, the greater the stock value.
Table 7:
Proportion of capital stock structure (ten thousand shares) (%)
The total share capital is 58080 100.
Restricted shares 209836.1
Market value in circulation (100 million yuan) 149.46
Total market value (RMB 100 million) 234
Latest P/E ratio (times) 70.4
Dividend per share (RMB) 0.39
Latest P/B ratio (times) 17.7
Annual dividend yield (%) 0.3
Enterprise value-benefit ratio EV/EBITDA 59.65
Excerpted from Sina Stock/Stock/News/sogusina/sogu000758.htm.
As can be seen from the above data:
Intrinsic value per share = 70.4 × 0.39 = 27.456 yuan.
Current market circulation price per share =1494600/20983 = 71.22909,
Total market value per share = 2,340,000/58,080 = 40. 58880 . 5868688688 1
Both are greater than the intrinsic value per share.
Based on the above analysis, the shares of China National Color Co., Ltd. still have investment value in the long run and are worth investing.
Three technical analysis
(A) K-line analysis
K-line chart of China Nonferrous Metals from April 2007 to April 2008.
From the K-line chart from March 2007 to early May 2008, the price has obviously rebounded from the dormant bottom, showing a trend of long-term arrangement, which is a good opportunity for capital intervention. First of all, from the market situation, CICC formed an obvious outsole on April 22, 2008, and it has bottomed out for quite some time, showing a rebound trend in the later period. Secondly, the falling speed of the EMA has slowed down, gradually changing from an upward trend to a horizontal trend, and there are signs of an upward trend. Thirdly, the 5-day moving average, 10 moving average and the 20-day moving average cross the 30-day moving average upward, forming an obvious upward channel, and the buying signal is strong at this time.
(B) KDJ indicators
KDJ index, also known as stochastics, studies the closing price, the highest price and the lowest price, and reflects the strength of the price trend and the phenomenon of overbought and oversold by calculating the true amplitude of price fluctuations such as the highest price, the lowest price and the closing price on the same day or today. The following figure is the KDJ chart of China Color Corporation from September 2007 to April 2008:
As shown in the figure, at the beginning of April, the D value fell below 20, the lowest point 10, indicating that the stock has entered the oversold area, and the possibility of market rebound is high, which is a buying signal. When the J value drops to 0, it indicates that the market is oversold. At this time, the J value is more sensitive than the D line. As can be seen from the figure, the value of k is 19.80, the value of d is 13.88, and the value of k is greater than the value of d, indicating that the market is promising and a new round of upswing market is about to begin; Moreover, when the value of k is gradually greater than the value of d, the graph shows that the K line crosses the D line from below, indicating that the current trend is upward, so when the K line breaks through the D line graphically, it is a buy signal.
(3) MACD
MACD, called "Exponential Smoothing Average" in Chinese, is a technical index to judge the trading opportunity by using the aggregation and separation between the short-term (usually 12 days) moving average and the long-term (usually 26 days) moving average.
MACD technical index is to calculate the deviation between two smooth moving averages with different speeds as the basis of market judgment. In fact, it uses the signs of convergence and separation of fast and slow moving averages to judge the timing and signal of buying and selling. In practice, MACD indicators not only have the functions of bargain hunting and capturing strong rising points, but also capture selling points to help investors escape from the top successfully.
As shown in the figure, first of all, in April, the DIF and DEA values were below the 0-axis, which was a short market, and the DIF and DEA lines crossed the 0-axis upward, indicating that the market was gradually improving and the situation was clear. Secondly, the DIF line crosses the DEA line from bottom to top, indicating that the market is on the rise and should consider buying.
Judging from the column line. Since April, the color of the columnar line has changed from green to red, indicating that the trend has turned and started to move up from the state; Secondly, the continuous enlargement of the column line shows that the intensity of trend operation is gradually increasing.
Bias index
Deviation rate deviation is a technical index, which indicates the gap between the closing price of a stock index or individual stock and the moving average in the calculation period. It is an important supplement to the moving average theory. Its function is to measure the deviation of the stock price from the moving average in the process of change, so as to draw the conclusion that when the stock price changes sharply, it may be blocked from rebounding because it deviates too far from the moving trend. The following figure shows the deviation chart of China Color Corporation from September 2007 to April 2008:
First of all, from the shape of the bias line, the bottom of the bias curve appears at a low level, such as the bottom of W or triple bottom, which may indicate that the stock price will turn from weak to strong, and the stock price will rebound upward soon. At this time, it is a buying signal, and you can absorb stocks on dips.
Secondly, the combination of the bias curve and the stock price operation curve shows that the stock price curve and the bias curve rise synchronously from the low level, indicating that the stock price is expected to bottom out or continue to rise in the short term. At this point, investors can buy on dips, or they can hold shares to rise; At the same time, when the bias curve breaks through the 0-degree line from bottom to top and the stock price also breaks through the pressure of the short-term moving average, it indicates that the stock price will rise strongly in the short term, and investors should buy stocks in time.
Finally, judging from the value of the deviation rate, the deviation rate on the 6th is -6.43%, which indicates that the stock price is oversold and you can consider buying stocks. The deviation rate on 12 is-10.66%, which indicates that the stock index has oversold and can start to absorb stocks on dips.
(5) CCI index
CCI index is a unique technical analysis index, which introduces the concept of the average interval deviation between price and stock price in a certain period, and emphasizes the importance of the average absolute deviation of stock price in the technical analysis of stock market. CCI index is a kind of overbought and oversold index, which is specially used to measure whether the stock price is beyond the normal distribution range, but it has its own uniqueness compared with other overbought and oversold indexes. However, CCI index fluctuates between positive infinity and negative infinity, so there will be no passivation of the index, which will help investors to better judge the market, especially those abnormal markets with short-term ups and downs. The following figure is the CCI chart of China Color Corporation from September 2007 to April 2008:
First of all, from the CCI indicator range, when the CCI indicator broke through the-100 line from bottom to top in early April and re-entered the normal range, it indicates that the bottoming stage of the stock price may end and will enter the consolidation stage. Investors can buy stocks in small quantities on dips.
Secondly, from the CCI index form, when the CCI curve is far away from the low point below the-100 line in April, its trend shows a V-shaped bottom inversion form, indicating that the stock price is going from weak to strong, and it is about to rebound upward, so it can absorb a small number of stocks on dips. At this time, the stock price curve also appears in the same form, which can confirm the strong trend of the stock.
Finally, from the trend of CCI indicators, CCI curve has been running in the oversold area for quite a long time. In mid-April, the CCI curve broke through the-100 line and entered another abnormal range, and then began to turn around, indicating that the short-term bottom of the stock price was initially found, and investors could open a small amount of positions. The longer the CCI curve runs in the oversold area, the more you can confirm the short-term bottom.
Based on the above analysis, the shares of China National Color Co., Ltd. still have investment value in the long run and are worth investing.