Now shanzhai is not a new word, not only shanzhai mobile phones are overwhelming, but also shanzhai digital cameras, digital cameras and LCD monitors have swept the IT market.

Looking back a year ago, when the shanzhai mobile phone first appeared, it really subverted the rules of the game in the digital product market, with complete functions and low prices, taking the civilian route and sweeping away the high-end image of digital products. What are the new trends of shanzhai market after 2008, which is called the first year of shanzhai? Our reporter once again investigated the base camp of cottage products-Shenzhen Huaqiang North Electronic Market.

Will 3G mobile phones and Internet notebooks change the traditional territory of IT market again?

Longsheng Mobile Phone Center in Huaqiang North is one of the most important markets for shanzhai mobile phones in China. In a three-story market, the reporter saw the wholesale counters of mobile phones one after another, and customers patronized the narrow counters, and the business was very busy.

Reporter: "How much is this?"

Seller: "185 yuan, whose languages include traditional Chinese, Hongkong, Taiwan Province Province, and Arabic such as Thai and Malaysian."

The reporter walked around the market and found that digital cameras, video cameras and other electronic products that had been popular for some time had disappeared. The product that dominates the market is still a high imitation cottage phone. The difference is that the shanzhai mobile phone has more complete functions now, and the price is cheaper than in the past, with the lowest price of 150 RMB. Among the dazzling array of cottage phones, the reporter found that the publicity brand of 3G mobile phones was particularly eye-catching.

Reporter: "Look at your 3G mobile phone. How much is it cheap? "

Seller: "It's more than 400 cheaper and more than 600 more expensive."

A 3G mobile phone with Internet access costs several thousand yuan in brand stores, and only a few hundred yuan here, which is incredibly low.

Reporter: "Is 3G mobile phone so cheap?"

Seller: "Yes, because we are wholesale, the prices are all like this."

To the reporter's surprise, among these compact mobile phones, there are many high imitation laptops with exquisite appearance and complete functions, and the prices are also very low, ranging from 500 yuan to 2,200 yuan.

Vendor: "This is a copy of Sony and Samsung, not a copy of three or two. Its keyboard is Sony's, and its body design is Samsung's, supporting 3 G. "

Here, the reporter also found that many counters have become counters for selling laptops online. This is a big counter at the gate of Longsheng. At the end of last year, it was still a wholesale cottage mobile phone, and now it has been acquired by a company, specializing in the wholesale of online notebook computers.

Seller: "We bought a counter. I mainly accumulate customers here and take them to the company. "

At the same time, the reporter visited several major digital products wholesale markets in Shenzhen Huaqiang North, such as Sanda Electronics, Tong Ming Digital and SEG Electronics, and found that 3G mobile phones and laptops have become the latest selling points in Huaqiang North's electronic products market.

Reporter: "What brand?"

Seller: "It's fake, no brand, assembled by myself."

The reporter saw that Longsheng mobile phone market has been publicly renamed as 3G mobile phone market, and Sanda electronic products market, which used to be dominated by mobile phone wholesale, has completely become the largest and most comprehensive online notebook computer market in China. At the same time, the reporter found that a new market specializing in the wholesale of 3G mobile phones and netbooks was opened next to the digital market in Tong Ming.

Seller: "What is really selling now is 3G. This machine will not go out of date. It changes money every month, and money always changes. "

What is the most popular in the market, cottage electronic products will immediately follow the hot spots and bring forth the new ones, even if they are genuine. At present, the most popular cottage products in Huaqiang North market are 3G mobile phones and Internet notebooks. Will this change the traditional territory of the IT market again like a cottage phone?

This is the most popular time for shanzhai mobile phone sales in 2008. We took photos in the mobile phone market in Huaqiang North. A counter less than two meters can sell thousands of mobile phones at most a day. In 2006, MediaTek Company, a chip manufacturer in Taiwan Province Province, cracked the core technology of mobile phone production. As long as manufacturers buy MediaTek chips, they can assemble mobile phones with mobile phone cases and batteries. Such a simple mobile phone production method has made people from all walks of life join the ranks of mobile phone production, which has led to the rapid impact of cheap cottage mobile phones on domestic and foreign markets and brought about a price and consumption change in the mobile phone market. Similarly, the cottage netbook in Huaqiang North electronic products market is also copying the model of cottage mobile phone.

Li Qinqin, general manager of Shenzhen Aiteqi Technology Co., Ltd.: "In fact, the concept of netbook was first put forward by Intel, and many manufacturers also put forward a scheme of netbook, including Shanghai Ling Jie and VIA."

Li Qinqin is the owner of a small network notebook factory in Shenzhen. He told reporters that last year, a company named VIA Electronics in Taiwan Province Province copied the model of shanzhai mobile phone, and announced in Shenzhen that it would establish an "open ultra-mobile industry strategic alliance" with Microsoft * *, integrate the supply chain of portable notebooks, provide mobile solutions based on VIA open platform to all downstream manufacturers, and popularize the core technology of online notebooks, so that thousands of mobile phones, MP3 players and MP3 players were produced in the past.

Chen Shuiming, general manager of Shenzhen Jiliantong Digital Technology Co., Ltd.: "I estimate that there are no fewer than 100 netbooks in Baoan, and there are more accessories. If it is a supporting supplier of notebooks, there will be no fewer than 500 sets. "

Chen Shuiming, who specializes in providing computer motherboard accessories for online notebook manufacturers and assembly plants, told reporters that in the past, notebook computers were monopolized by several major brand enterprises, but in just half a year last year, more than 500 online notebook manufacturers were born in Shenzhen alone. At the same time, hundreds of mobile phone manufacturers around Shenzhen 1000 have launched or will soon launch notebook computer products. With the help of Shenzhen's mature electronic industry platform, in Huaqiang North, Shenzhen, around the cottage notebook manufacturers, a complete industrial chain has been formed from design, drawings, molds, parts, procurement, assembly, sales, banking, and even packaging boxes, lunch boxes and renting houses. As long as there is more than 500 thousand funds, you can put notebooks on the production line. Companies that used to produce accessories for mobile phones, MP3 players and other electronic products have also transformed to produce accessories for online notebooks.

Chen Shuiming: "In fact, the transformation is not particularly complicated. For example, in our mold factory, the shell of a plastic mobile phone is about100t. If you want a 10 inch netbook case, you need at least 250 tons. "

Chen Shuiming's enterprise used to only produce computer motherboard accessories. In June last year, he found that many manufacturers were involved in the production of online notebooks, so he invested more than 5 million yuan to set up an online notebook production line, hoping to get a slice of this hot market. However, the subsequent operation of the company was beyond his expectation.

Chen Shuiming: "This profit is much lower than the expected profit."

Reporter: "What was the original expected profit?"

Chen Shuiming: "The original expected profit was between 8% and 10%, but now the actual profit is between 3% and 5%, which is very low."

Chen Shuiming told reporters that the cracking of the technology platform and the huge downstream manufacturers joining the ranks of netbook production have reduced the price of online notebooks from several thousand yuan to ten thousand yuan to less than 2,000 yuan, although the price of netbooks of some brand manufacturers has also dropped to 2,500 yuan to 2,700 yuan. Some products of second-and third-tier brand manufacturers even reported ultra-low prices equivalent to cottage netbooks. However, low-price competition has not made netbooks as popular as cottage phones. After a short period of three months, disorderly price competition has made most manufacturers have no money to earn.

Wu Di, general manager of Shenzhen Lingtuo Technology Co., Ltd.: "The production cost of a normal notebook is probably 1.650 yuan does not include tax."

Chen Shuiming: "For example, the CPU of Intel N270 is probably 250 yuan, and then 10.2 inch display screen is 250 yuan."

Chen Shuiming calculated an account for the reporter. The cost of a standard netbook is roughly as follows: 10 inch b product monitor: 250 yuan, 160G hard disk: 270 yuan, 1G memory 75 yuan, CPU component 270 yuan, PCB board and other electronic materials: 230 yuan, 2200mA three-cell battery 95 yuan, processing fee, module and shell. However, according to the investigation in Huaqiang North electronic market, the price of most standard online notebooks is only about 1.600 yuan.

Reporter: "Are they all like this without a brand?"

Vendor: "I make my own brand, and I do wholesale."

Reporter: "How much can I buy the cheapest goods?"

Seller: "Get the goods, 1580 yuan"

How can the shanzhai survive tenaciously?

Internet notebooks have become the new favorite of shanzhai, and funds from all walks of life have poured in, and prices have also dropped sharply. I have a data here. China's online sales this year are about 2.5 million units, with sales of about 5 billion yuan.

According to the current profit rate of 5% of the cottage netbook, the sales of 5 billion yuan are only 250 million yuan. At present, there are at least 500 cottage netbook manufacturers in Shenzhen, and the average profit of each enterprise is only 500,000 yuan. Obviously, this is not a very profitable business. So, how did these shanzhai survive tenaciously?

In the Sanda electronic products market, which is known as the largest and most comprehensive online notebook in China, the reporter saw that the market was very deserted. Although it is a weekend, there are not many consumers who come to buy notebooks online.

Reporter: "Is your notebook easy to sell?"

Seller: "Not easy to sell."

Reporter: "How many channels can I take a day?"

Vendor: "Sometimes several sets, sometimes one set can't be sold in one day."

A salesman who once sold a cottage phone told reporters that a mobile phone can be used, but a laptop is not necessarily. In addition, the price is close to 2000 yuan, which is much more expensive than the cottage phone. Therefore, the demand for online notebooks in the market is far less than that of mobile phones. Although the price is close to the floor price now, online notebooks are still not easy to sell, sometimes one is sold in a few days, and even the selling price is lower than the cost price.

Wu Di, general manager of Shenzhen Lingtuo Technology Co., Ltd.: "It can only be said that the quality of products is different from all accessories, and may be different from regular products."

Chen Shuiming, general manager of Shenzhen JiUnicom Digital Technology Co., Ltd. said: "These are two kinds of shells with different costs. This shell is not sprayed with conductive paint, and this shell is sprayed with conductive paint, so its cost will be almost 15 yuan. "

Chen Shuiming did such an experiment for reporters, and pickled two socket fittings with different prices at the same time. As a result, the cheap fittings soon rusted.

Chen Shuiming: "Will this rust? The price is one yuan to two yuan."

Chen Shuiming told reporters that some netbooks have to use poor quality batteries, keyboards and other accessories to save costs in order to occupy the market, but these problems will gradually emerge in the process of using online notebooks in the future.

Chen Shuiming: "If a notebook battery is poor, it will decay faster, and it will be felt after 3 months."

The vicious competition among merchants makes the quality of netbooks questioned by consumers, which has caused a great impact on the newly emerging cottage online notebook market.

Li Qinqin, general manager of Shenzhen Aiteqi Technology Co., Ltd.: "At present, we feel that the whole netbook market is facing the same experience as a mobile phone. At the beginning, many factories rushed in, and as a result, many unqualified products reached consumers and became industry killers. This has caused consumers to disapprove of netbooks, which has led to the gradual possibility of this industry and great sales pressure. "

Li Qinqin, which used to produce MP3 players, invested millions of yuan to produce online notebooks last August. Instead of enjoying the harvest in this round of online notebook feast, he lost hundreds of thousands of yuan.

Li Qinqin: "At first, we invested 500 units, because many customers complained and were afraid to accept this product. At that time, we could hardly get out. Basically, there may be one or two units or even zero in a month, because we have completely lost confidence in this industry, including ourselves. "

Now Li Qinqin has started to produce MP3 again, and gradually improved the quality and technology of netbooks. However, Chen Shuiming, who invested millions in building an online notebook production line, recovered his investment cost by OEM production of notebooks for some American and Italian brands. So what impact does the downturn in the online notebook market have on upstream accessories manufacturers?

Jiaxing, general manager of fine steel Xing Precision Plastic Mould Products Co., Ltd.: "The price has been cut very badly, not only haggle over every ounce, but sometimes there is still one place after the decimal point, which is reserved to the centimeter, which has reached this level."

Jiaxing's company is a company specializing in anti-blocking of mobile phones and anti-slip and anti-shock strips of netbooks. He told reporters that the sharp price reduction of online notebooks transmitted this pressure to upstream enterprises, which also led to a decline in profits of upstream enterprises and even an unprofitable situation.

Jiaxing: "The price of molds is repeatedly pressed, which is basically the cost price, but for downstream suppliers like you and me, you can't do it without doing it. If you want to live, you must do so. "

It is not only Jiaxing that feels meager profits, but even many supporting enterprises in Shenzhen are in trouble, and some small factories are on the verge of bankruptcy.

Can Shenzhen's cottage electronic products continue to roam the rivers and lakes in the 3G era?

It has become the survival rule of many cottage notebook manufacturers to pass on the cost to upstream enterprises through shoddy accessories. Under such fierce competition pressure, many enterprises in Shenzhen quit the production of online notebooks and find another way out. However, the shanzhai electronic products in Shenzhen have formed a complete industrial chain and strong production capacity after all. What is the future fate of this industry? Can you continue to wander the rivers and lakes in the 3G era? This is like a huge question mark in front of people.

In the case of sluggish network notebook market, many enterprises in Shenzhen began to turn the future of electronic products to the development of 3G notebooks and 3G mobile phones. In the electronic product market of Huaqiang North, the reporter saw many so-called 3G mobile phones and netbooks.

Reporter: "Is it a 3G mobile phone? How much is it? "

Seller: "520 yuan."

Reporter: "How much memory does it support? The fuselage? "

Manufacturer: "More than 20 megabytes of fuselage,"

So, are these mobile phones with a memory of only over 20 megabytes and a price of several hundred yuan really 3G mobile phones?

Wang Guojun, general manager of mobile communication management department of Shenzhen Tongzhou Electronics Co., Ltd., said: "A real 3G mobile phone needs 200 megabytes of CPU and 256 megabytes of product memory. These application data can be processed at high speed in 3G bandwidth, and the cost will reach 800 to 1500 yuan. How can it be sold to 500 yuan, 300 yuan?

As a local brand enterprise in Shenzhen, Tongzhou Electronics has been developing and producing 3G notebook computers and 3G mobile phone technologies. Wang Guojun, who is in charge of production, thinks that the online digital products that can really dominate the market and be recognized by consumers for a long time in the future should be 3G-oriented and multifunctional smartphones and notebooks.

Wang Guojun: "We can use the mobile phone as the remote control of this TV set. We can upload the video and audio shot on the mobile phone to the TV and play it wirelessly. Now you are in Shenzhen on business and your home is in Beijing. You can click on your mobile phone to check the real-time dynamic pictures taken by your home camera at any time. This is achieved through 3G bandwidth. "

Real 3G mobile phones and 3G Internet access can bring more services to users, such as video, mobile office, monitoring TV interconnection and so on, but at present, this technical platform is not available to ordinary enterprises.

Zhang Tong, vice president of Shenzhen Tongzhou Electronics Co., Ltd.: "Unfortunately, there are only a few manufacturers who really make high-end Internet mobile phones in the field of 3G and terminals."

Zhang Tong told reporters that Tongzhou Electronics has invested 6 million US dollars every year only by cooperating with some international giants of R&D.. As the window of China's electronic products, the electronic products with 3G concept constantly introduced by Huaqiang North Electronic Products Market can only make the market more chaotic, and ultimately all enterprises will suffer. He also put forward his own suggestions for the chaos of the cottage 3G.

Zhang Tong: "I think at this time, we should join hands with relevant enterprises in government-related industries to turn these products that used to be shanzhai into standardized and regular products through a market-regulated behavior and a guiding behavior, and guide everyone to go more to the high end, to the high end of the whole Internet, and to establish an orderly market through market-regulated behavior."

Half-hour observation: where is the way out for the "cottage"

The word "shanzhai" has been full of controversy since its birth. On the one hand, shanzhai products mean cheap, convenient and personalized, on the other hand, shanzhai products can't get rid of the confusion of plagiarism, vicious competition and poor quality. Therefore, from the cottage mobile phone, cottage camera to cottage netbook, all the way to 3G products, the cottage finally hit the south wall.

On the surface, it seems that the low tide of cottage products comes from the high threshold of 3G products, and the vast majority of cottage manufacturers can only be turned away by huge technology research and development expenses. But the deeper crisis in this industry is still hidden in its own business model. Looking back now, almost every generation of cottage products has gone the same way. First, they cracked the technology, and then all kinds of social funds followed suit and bargained for the market. When the profit rate dropped sharply, everyone turned their guns and looked for the next target. In just one year, the hot spots sought after in the cottage market rotate like a lantern. This speculative psychology of fast-forward and fast-out is doomed that the cottage products will not have higher pursuit in technology and quality and become the mainstream of the market. It can be predicted that under this mode, even if 3G technology can be cracked in the future, the cottage products will still be difficult to get rid of the short-lived curse and are destined to continue the cottage.

However, on the other hand, we can't deny the rationality of the existence of shanzhai products. It is precisely because of the existence of cottage products that all regular big brands must reduce their prices to benefit the people. It can be expected that the contest between shanzhai and regular brands will continue for a long time to come. Who can get the upper hand is in the hands of consumers.

To be fair, there are very few truly famous national brands in digital products. Except Lenovo notebooks, almost all of them are foreign brands. Even several domestic mobile phones that were once famous in previous years are mostly gone now. Why didn't giants like Apple, Sony and Samsung come into being in our IT industry, but instead, an alternative like Shanzhai came into being? Why do we have strong industrial integration ability, but we can't condense into market competitiveness? These questions also need answers when paying attention to the fate of the cottage.