Opening the door, Beijing Mercedes-Benz shut down a day of loss of 400 million is a misinterpretation, but a day of economic loss of 400 million yuan of claims are based on evidence.

The epidemic is gradually coming under control, and it's a difficult multiple choice question whether to resume work or not. As long as the growth of cases continues, the manufacturing sector must face the risk of spreading if it chooses to return to work. However, just keep dragging it out is of course even worse. Do you want to keep the economic indicators, keep the growth?

Theoretically, our Chinese New Year holiday ends on February 2nd. Most of the people who were able to do some of their work in front of a computer screen, like us, started working from home on February 3rd. Some of this is actually quite true, such as the fact that if you continue to work from home, your boss is going to realize that it's the same thing with or without you, and that 99 percent of the time on conference calls, the only thing you say is "Hello, can you hear me?" . For the manufacturing industry, the resumption of work means that the staff need to go to work, the production line does not move up, it means that they are going to get 0 points.

February 6, Beijing Benz a letter of application caused the automotive industry financial industry to the masses of the discussion, the application letter probably has the following focus:

Company wants to return to work on February 10; the company's safety stock is only one day; the prerequisites for our resumption of work is that the suppliers can return to work; if we can not return to work, our daily economic loss is 400 million yuan, is the development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, a huge loss. huge loss.

The risk of resumption of work is not within the scope of our chat, and Mercedes-Benz has already resumed work in an orderly, smooth and safe manner. For the melon masses, 400 million, one day, 400,000,000 yuan yuan, probably can not imagine what a concept, most people at home to pick their feet for a day without work, the loss of 200, 300, 500 dollars almost.

So how exactly is this 400 million a day calculated?

First of all, Beijing Automobile is a listed company, the financial report revenue are public figures.February is not yet time to announce the full year 2019 financial report, we first find out its first half of 2019 financial report to see.

Beijing Automobile 2019 first half operating income of 87.764 billion yuan, to Q3 is 138.0299838 billion yuan, Beijing Mercedes-Benz in which the revenue accounted for a general statement in the 80% -90% or so, that is, according to the half-yearly report of at least 70 billion yuan, divided by half a year and 180 days, every day 3.9 billion. Based on the third-quarter report, that's over 400 million a day.

So stopping production for a day of economic loss of 400 million, this statement is not sensationalized, may just be that we are too poor, to have a lot of zeroes behind the kind of numbers to indicate the funds really do not have the concept.

And Beijing Mercedes-Benz has continued its growth momentum. in January 2020, sales rose 18.8 percent year-on-year to 67,572 units, with the Mercedes-Benz E-Class even surpassing 20,000 units sold per month. Note that this was achieved with last year's Chinese New Year in February and this year's in January. If such a good momentum is cut short due to factory production problems, do you think it's urgent?

But, at the same time, we need to point out some of the problems. A day's safety stock, we can not judge the authenticity of this message. But we start from the actual situation, the orderly resumption of work is not the same as the day can be opened at full power, at present, the country as a whole, the transportation and logistics and even the normal operation of the 4S stores have not been restored, the first day of work, but also for the GDP contribution of 400 million, which is not realistic.

So, our conclusion. First of all, in the front, only represents our simple analysis. The Beijing Mercedes-Benz plant lost 400 million dollars in economic losses on the first day of shutdown. Really! Suppliers do not immediately resume production in situ immediately plant shutdown, may not be so serious. February 10 successfully resumed work means that the full blood resurrection, which is also unrealistic.

But there is no doubt that the epidemic has had a serious impact on the nation's and the world's auto manufacturing industry.

First, there are the OEMs in Hubei, who will need more than an application to resume production. Dongfeng, Peugeot Citroen, Honda, Nissan Renault, companies with factories in Hubei are basically accounted for in February, which is obvious.

In fact, there are also a large number of auto parts manufacturers have set up factories in Hubei, including Bosch, BorgWarner, Visteon and so on. Automobile manufacturing is a game of globalization chess, Mercedes-Benz's argument is justified, suppliers have problems, I want to resume production can not. Temporary change of suppliers or supply from other factories of suppliers, and circled back to the problem of insufficient capacity.

The overseas factories of auto makers that have been affected by the tight supply of spare parts that led to production stoppages or reductions include Nissan's Kyushu plant, which suffered a shutdown on Feb. 4; Hyundai's plant in South Korea, which briefly interrupted production; and FCA, which said that inventories of some spare parts were very tight, and Jaguar Land Rover, which has been taking emergency measures such as airlift to ensure production at its U.K. plant. As you can see, even car companies that are currently producing normally are doing everything they can to ensure that they can continue to do so next month.

It's reassuring to see that the outbreak of the new coronavirus in China, except in Hubei province, has clearly improved, with factories starting up one after another, and the only problem that remains is that the flow of people is still poor, and the arrival rate of manufacturing workers is still not up to standard. One of my college roommates, who currently runs a foreign trade garment processing factory in Guangdong, told me a few days ago that the factory has already received approval to resume work, and the resumption of work is progressing in an orderly manner, but many workers still believe that it is risky to start work now, so they choose not to resume work for the time being. And transportation from the townships where people are leaving to the places where they are coming in still hasn't been fully restored.

In addition, the supplier shutdown will not only affect the auto manufacturing industry. Imagine, because there is no supply of spare parts, car dealers' after-sales maintenance will be equally seriously affected. You go to the 4S store to do a maintenance change a brake pads, 4S store told you that the factory shut down no goods waiting for it, what else can you do? Mercedes-Benz "four hundred million a day" is the epidemic on the manufacturing industry as well as a microcosm of the impact of normal production and life, really not today did not earn money so simple a thing.

This article comes from the author of the automobile home car, does not represent the views of the automobile home position.