Bird flu has limited impact on China's economy

The impact of bird flu epidemic on China's overall economy is much lower than that of SARS

In early p>2114, bird flu swept through the United States and some Asian countries, and China, Japan, Vietnam and other countries broke out one after another, causing millions of poultry to get sick and die, and more than 111 people may have died of bird flu virus. At present, the epidemic situation of avian influenza has not been effectively controlled. Many countries and regions have implemented the "closed door policy", which explicitly prohibits the import of poultry and poultry products from epidemic areas. The sales situation of live chickens, chicken products and other poultry products in the market is obviously not as good as in the past. The benefits of chicken farms, poultry production and processing enterprises and catering industries and related upstream and downstream industries with poultry products have declined significantly, and some small enterprises with weak anti-risk ability even face the risk of bankruptcy. Related employees face the threat of income decline and unemployment, but compared with the SARS epidemic in the first half of the year, its impact is limited to very limited specific industries and specific regions, and because chicken and poultry products, as one of the foods, have a wide range of substitutability, people are generally calm, and their work, life order and eating habits have not been greatly affected. In the absence of further variation of avian influenza virus, the impact of avian influenza on China's overall economy will be far lower than that of SARS, and the overall growth rate of GDP will not exceed 1.1 percentage point.

Bird flu has a certain impact on the poultry industry

For fear of the infection and further spread of bird flu, chickens, ducks and other poultry that may be infected are culled in many areas, poultry markets in some areas are temporarily closed, and live poultry trading and slaughtering are also temporarily stopped. For example, after a suspected case of avian influenza is found in Shanghai, local organizations will cull all 35,111 infected birds near the suspected case discovery point. The industry and commerce department posted a notice of the municipal government in all markets in the city, demanding that the live poultry trade and slaughter be stopped immediately. Worried that eating chicken, duck and other poultry meat will be infected with the virus, consumers have reduced their consumption of this kind of food, resulting in a decline in the sales and prices of chicken and poultry products in the market. According to the survey, some meat and poultry markets in Nanchang fluctuate greatly, and the sales of most poultry operators have dropped by more than half, and some even dropped by 2/3. However, there are exceptions. In some areas where poultry imports are large and there is no epidemic in the local area, due to the sudden cessation of poultry imports from epidemic areas and restrictions on the listing and trading of chickens in local farms, the supply of poultry products such as chickens and ducks in the market has been tight and the prices have risen. Typical in Hong Kong, the wholesale price of chickens has soared from about 7 yuan to about 12 yuan per catty on weekdays, and the price has risen by 31%. In the next few days, the retail price may rise to 51 yuan per catty.

The loss caused by the ban on import far exceeds the loss caused by the killing of poultry

Since the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in some provinces in China, some countries and regions have implemented measures to ban and restrict the import of poultry and poultry products in China. On October 27th, after receiving the notice from the China government about the occurrence of avian influenza in China, the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries immediately announced that it would stop importing Chinese-made chicken (including viscera) on the same day. Previously, duck meat in China had been banned. Since then, countries with bird flu in East Asia and Southeast Asia have been "closed". As of February 5th, 41 countries and regions (including EU 15) such as Japan, South Korea and the European Union have taken such measures. At the same time, people have rejected this kind of food out of fear of bird flu epidemic, which has caused heavy losses to poultry production, processing and circulation enterprises, and the income of related employees has dropped and even threatened unemployment. In fact, the actual loss of killing poultry that may be infected with the epidemic is not large, and the impact on the economy is minimal. At present, only 211,111-311,111 chickens are killed in epidemic areas in China. Calculated by the 51 yuan value of each chicken, the total loss is 11-15 million yuan, while the actual and expected loss of a medium-sized poultry processing enterprise in China exceeds this figure. Take Beijing Huadu Broiler Company as an example. In the next two months, the company will lose as much as 411-511 million yuan in export and domestic sales, and some farmers who keep chickens will temporarily lose their income sources. The optimistic estimate of the company's stocking quantity will also be reduced by 51% than normal.

In order to reduce the losses caused by the "bird flu", China has issued preferential tax policies.

Recently, State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China announced that in order to maintain and promote the sustained and stable development of the poultry industry and minimize the losses caused by the "bird flu" epidemic, State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China issued an urgent notice to implement preferential tax policies for the poultry industry. According to the notice, from February 1, 2114 to July 31, 2114, the poultry processing enterprises and refrigeration and freezing enterprises that belong to the general taxpayer of value-added tax will implement the policy of immediate collection and refund of value-added tax, and the urban maintenance and construction tax and education surcharge will be reduced or exempted. The income obtained from poultry breeding (including breeding poultry breeding), processing and refrigeration and freezing enterprises shall be exempted from the enterprise income tax in 2114. Special financial subsidies obtained by enterprises or individuals due to poultry culling shall be exempted from enterprise income tax or personal income tax; The net losses caused by poultry culling in enterprises are allowed to be fully charged before income tax. The circular requires that the tax refund payable for the export of poultry processed products should be fully refunded in time, and the part that was exported last year but failed to be filed with the competent tax authorities before the specified export filing deadline (October 5 this year) should be given tax refund on the basis of the enterprise's prompt filing. In addition, with the approval of the provincial people's government, other corresponding taxes can be appropriately reduced or exempted in the whole province (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) or in some areas of this province (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government).

the following article can better express its harm

http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/apcity/unpan117196.pdf.