11 most interesting Expo stocks
Oriental Pearl (611832): the first share of Expo tourism
Jinjiang (611754): the leader of budget hotels
Bailian (611631): the leading advantage of department stores
New World (611628): the hotel performance is expected to reach a new high < : passenger flow or explosive growth
shentong subway (611834): there is room for imagination for asset injection
Shanghai airport (611119): opportunities brought by aviation market recovery
mass transit (611611): hidden assets are expected to increase in value
bank of communications (611328): benefiting from the Expo and cheap in valuation
From the perspective of sectors, tourism and retail industry benefit the most, and transportation also directly benefits, and Expo sponsors will greatly enhance the brand value.
NO.1 Oriental Pearl (611832): the first share of Expo tourism
Expo benefit index: ★★★★☆
Total share capital: 3.186 billion shares
Earnings per share: 1.114 yuan (in the third quarter of 2119)
Net assets per share: 2.22 yuan (222 yuan). The company's main business income is "333" structure, with tourism, trade and media each accounting for about 31%, but the company's profit contribution pattern is different. The media business contributes about 51% of the company's profits, and the tourism profit accounts for about 45% of the total profits. The company's tourism business includes sightseeing, catering and other all-round tourism services.
Guoyuan Securities predicts that during the World Expo, the number of tourists will increase by 11 million, and the per capita consumption will also increase by about 9 yuan, and the income from tourism business will increase by about 91 million yuan; Hotel business will also have a greater growth; Pujiang cruise business will realize the mutual opening of the Oriental Pearl Wharf and the Expo Performing Arts Center during the World Expo. The Expo Performing Arts Center is the only venue near the river after the World Expo. After the two docks are connected, not only the cruise business is expected to double, but also the number of tourists at the two attractions will be indirectly increased.
The Expo Performing Arts Center is a bright spot. At present, the Expo Performing Arts Center has more than 81 boxes, and more than 51 boxes will be sold during the Expo, which will directly increase the income in 2111. The Expo Performing Arts Center will guarantee about 211 performances a year and 1.15 billion yuan in advertising revenue.
secondly, new media business will become the main growth point of media business in the future. The company's media business is divided into two parts: media advertising and transmission communication. Traditional media advertising mainly comes from group companies and related transactions, which brings the company 211 million yuan in income every year and has a high cost advantage; The new media advertising business is mainly the mobile TV business in transportation system and public places in hospitals. At present, this business has completed the initial investment and will become another profit growth point in the future. The company's wireless radio and television signal transmission business has a monopoly advantage in Shanghai, with an annual income of about 1 billion yuan.
in terms of cable transmission, the company holds 39% equity of Dongfang Cable and 51% equity of Taiyuan Cable. At present, the further promotion of the triple play policy is beneficial to the company's cable transmission business.
There is still room for the company to further increase its shareholding in Dongfang Cable.
At present, the company holds the shares of three listed companies, namely Haitong Securities, Radio and Television Network and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, with the number of shares being 159,631,361,111,111 respectively, and the holding cost is relatively low. This part of available-for-sale financial assets has played a positive role in smoothing the company's performance in the next few years.
Guoyuan Securities predicts that the company's earnings per share in 2119, 2111 and 2111 will reach 1.16 yuan, 1.19 yuan and 1.21 yuan respectively. Because the concept of Expo has been sought after by investors for many times, the company's current valuation level remains high and has been at a relatively high level in history.
Although the valuation is high, according to the development trend of the Oriental Pearl, Guohai Securities has a high probability of explosive growth. It is estimated that the company's earnings per share in 2119~2112 are 1.17, 1.29, 1.31 and 1.32 yuan, and the corresponding PE values are 71, 41, 39.8 and 37 times. Maintain the company's "buy" investment rating.
NO2. Jinjiang shares (611754): leader of budget hotels
Expo benefit index: ★★★★☆
Total share capital: 613 million shares
Earnings per share: 1.36 yuan (in the third quarter of 2119)
Net assets per share: 561 yuan (in the third quarter of 2119) The stable investment income of Shanghai KFC, Suzhou KFC, Wuxi KFC and Hangzhou KFC, which hold 42% of the shares, and the investment income of securities firms, banks and other shares.
By the end of July 2119, Jinjiang Inn had 389 stores and 51,514 rooms. According to the data of China budget hotel network, in the third quarter of 2119, Jinjiang Inn's market share in domestic budget hotels reached 11%, second only to Home Inn Group, and it has a well-deserved market leading position.
During the World Expo, the great increase in the number of tourists will definitely bring a steady stream of tourists to Jinjiang Star. It is estimated that the average occupancy rate of the company's stores in Shanghai and East China will reach 95% and 91% respectively in 2111, the average house price will increase by more than 11%, and the investment income of the four Kende companies will increase by about 31%.
everbright securities believes that Expo 2111 will increase the company's earnings per share by 1.11 yuan, and it may exceed expectations. From 2119 to 2111, the company's earnings per share were 1.46 yuan, 1.58 yuan and 1.71 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE was 56, 45 and 37 times.
At present, the company holds shares in changjiang securities, Quanjude, Tongda Venture, Yuyuan Mall, Bank of Communications and jinjiang investment. The latest market value of these financial assets totals about 2 billion yuan, equivalent to an asset price per share that exceeds that of 3 yuan.
guohai securities is optimistic that compared with home inn and qitian, the company's PB value is obviously superior. In the case that the store size is similar to that of Home Inns and the development potential is strong, the market value of the company is less than 51% of that of Home Inns. It is a stock with the potential and temperament of "increasing by 11 times in 2111" and gives the company the investment rating of "buying" for the first time.
NO.3 Bailian Co., Ltd. (611631): the advantage of leading department stores is fully displayed
Expo benefit index: ★★★★☆
Total share capital: 1 billion shares
Earnings per share: 1.29 yuan (in the third quarter of 2119)
Net assets per share: 5.19 yuan (in 2119) At present, the company has 11 urban department stores, shares in Hongqiao Friendship, 4 time-honored department stores, 3 community department stores and 1 outlet brand discount stores. In the future, the company will lay out the Yangtze River Delta and gradually open up regional space.
according to the calculation of guohai securities, "department store+supermarket" shopping brought 21 billion to 33 billion yuan in sales revenue during the Expo. According to the 31% sales share of Bailian shares in Shanghai department store retail companies, the World Expo will bring 6.3-9.9 billion yuan in sales revenue to Bailian shares. Pudong No.1 Yaohan is the main department store closest to the Expo site, and there are Oriental Commercial Building, Yong 'an Department Store, No.1 Department Store and Hualian Store on Nanjing Road. It is predicted that Nanjing Road will become the largest gathering place for foreign tourists in 2111, and Bailian stores will obviously benefit directly.
the financial equity held by the company is of great value. The company holds legal person shares such as orient securities, Shen Yin Wanguo and Shanghai International Trust and Investment Company, and also holds shares in financial shares such as Haitong Securities and Bank of Communications. Only one equity of Haitong Securities is considered. With the lifting of the ban on restricted shares of Haitong Securities in October 2111, even if more than 211 million shares of the company are sold in six years, the average price is 15 yuan, and the company's earnings per share can be increased by 1.34 yuan regardless of dividends.
in addition, the company's asset integration also brings good expectations to the market. The injection of major shareholder's assets will effectively enhance the company's valuation. Bailian Group, a major shareholder, has many assets and has platform advantages and resource advantages in integrating retail business.
analysts judge that the integration of friendship shares will be the priority entry point of Bailian Group's integration, because Bailian Group is likely to integrate department store assets with Bailian shares as a platform and supermarket assets with friendship shares as a platform. Once friendship shares exchanges its non-supermarket assets for Lianhua Supermarket shares held by Bailian Group, friendship shares Holdings Lianhua Supermarket and Hualian Supermarket will form a supermarket platform after the replacement, and the integration of Bailian shares will follow.
guohai securities predicts that the company's earnings per share in 2119~2111 will be 1.4 yuan and 1.47 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 45 times and 41 times respectively. In 2111, the price-earnings ratio of department store retail stocks was 33 times, and the company's valuation can enjoy at least 31% premium, that is, the price-earnings ratio in 2111 was 43 times, so the company's share price is still undervalued. Analysts warned that because the World Expo is the icing on the cake for Bailian shares, the revaluation has built a safety margin for investors and maintained the company's "buy" investment rating.
Shen Yin IWC predicts that the company will achieve earnings per share of 1.39 yuan, 1.45 yuan and 1.47 yuan respectively in 2119-2111, and maintain its investment rating of "overweight", with moderate risk.
NO.4 New World (Quote Bar) (611628): Hotel performance is expected to reach a new high
Expo Benefit Index: ★★★☆
Total share capital: 532 million shares
Earnings per share: 1.24 yuan (in the third quarter of 2119)
Net assets per share: 3.23. The department store with an area of nearly 111,111 square meters in New World is located at the intersection of Nanjing Road and People's Square, which is the most central area of Shanghai, with an average daily passenger flow of 111,111.
During the World Expo, Nanjing Road is expected to become the business district with the densest passenger flow. With the construction of the Expo track network, New World is becoming a shopping center providing one-stop service for eating, drinking and having fun. It is expected to achieve sales growth of more than 31% in 2111, and contribute more than 111 million yuan in net profit to the company.
The Radisson Hotel under the company is a five-star tourist hotel. Since its official opening in October 2115, the occupancy rate has always been higher than the average occupancy rate of five-star hotels in Shanghai. Radisson Hotel is the most flexible part of the company's performance in 2111. During the six-month World Expo, the room rate and occupancy rate of Radisson Hotel will also be greatly improved, and its performance is expected to hit a record high. Northeast Securities expects the Radisson Hotel to achieve more than 51% revenue growth in 2111.
The company has recently made preparations for cultural marketing for the World Expo, hoping to build the company into a fully functional commercial flagship on Nanjing Road through the mechanism of business travel linkage. At present, we have contacted relevant travel agencies, and used the unique business model of Madame Tussauds to increase the capacity of gathering customers and expand the scope of cooperation.
analysts believe that the value of the company's commercial mergers and acquisitions is more prominent, and the largest shareholder, Huangpu District State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, has clearly expressed its support for the integration of its commercial assets. Huangpu District is an old commercial district in Shanghai. At present, 68 commercial properties on Nanjing Road are owned by 1/3 of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Huangpu District, and there are other high-quality assets such as real estate, so there is a lot of room for integration.
Northeast Securities estimated that the company's earnings per share in 2119-2111 were 1.35, 1.46 and 1.48 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 51.25, 38.27 and 36.83 times respectively, giving the company an investment rating of "cautious recommendation".
guohai securities believes that in 2111, the PE of commercial stocks and hotel stocks was 35 times, and the company can enjoy a valuation premium of 31%, giving the company an investment rating of "buying" for the first time.
The investment risk is that the Expo's promotion of the concept of big consumption is lower than expected, and the company's asset injection expectation is facing greater uncertainty.
NO.5 Yuyuan Mall (611655): passenger flow or explosive growth
Expo benefit index: ★★★☆
Total share capital: 799 million shares
Earnings per share: 1.51 yuan
Net assets per share: 4.66 yuan
As an old Shanghai brand, Yuyuan Garden. The Shanghai World Expo will rejuvenate the time-honored brand, and many businesses of the company will be in by going up one flight of stairs, and sales revenue and profits will increase.
the company has successively won three blocks of the food court in the Expo site, with a business area of 8,831 square meters, accounting for 11.4% of the total dining area in the park. The catering business of the company in the Expo Park is mainly divided into two parts: first, the self-operated business with a building area of about 3,811 square meters has begun preparations for the selection of snacks, the confirmation of logistics, procurement, and the investment promotion of booths and advertising spaces; Second, the entrusted management area of about 5111 square meters. There are 21,111 cultural performances in the Shanghai World Expo Park, and evening performances are arranged. At that time, more than 85% of visitors may dine in the park, and there are great business opportunities for Expo catering.
according to the official forecast, the catering consumption during the World Expo may reach 1.8 billion yuan. According to the business area, the sales revenue of the self-operated bid section of Yuyuan Garden is expected to exceed 81 million yuan, and with the income of the entrusted bid section, it is expected to achieve more than 1 billion yuan. This alone will bring 22.7% sales revenue growth to the company's catering business.
the preparation work outside the park is concentrated in the Yuyuan area, and the service is mainly improved. At present, the company's shops in Yuyuan Business Circle have partially completed the appearance transformation and product structure adjustment. It is expected that Yuyuan Garden will welcome guests at home and abroad with a brand-new look before the World Expo.
Benefiting from the passenger flow growth brought by the World Expo, Tianxiang Investment Co., Ltd. predicts that the passenger flow in Yuyuan Park will probably increase explosively by 31-41 million in 2111, nearly doubling the 37 million in 2118. In 2111, due to the lack of Expo visitors, the flow of people in Yuyuan Garden returned to normal, and it is expected to remain at 41 million. It is estimated that in 2111 and 2111, the company will realize the operating income of catering business of 938 million yuan and 563 million yuan.
The company's gold business has the characteristics of both offensive and defensive. With the promotion of the company's industrial chain status and the triple impetus of gold sales, this business will achieve obvious growth in the early stage of the World Expo.
because the price of the company's equity transfer of Debon Securities is not clear, the analyst raised the company's earnings per share to 1.71 yuan, 1.15 yuan and 1.31 yuan in 2119, 2111 and 2111 only from various businesses and integrating the investment income from Zhaojin Mining and Forte Donghu International Project. It is estimated that the reasonable transfer of PB of Debon Securities is about 2~3 times, and the total transfer price is about 1.181 ~ 1.772 billion yuan. After deducting the cost of 331 million yuan, the investment income is about 8.51 ~ 1.4.