"At present, our inventory is not high. Last year, Apple's purchase price exceeded expectations, so we adjusted our plan in June of 5438+00 and only bought 60% of the normal year. Now that the price of Apple has dropped, I intend to make a second acquisition. " Feng Xiaoqiang said. The surplus of apple freezers in China is about 7 135800 tons, accounting for 62.8% of the basic inventory. The surplus of apple freezers in China is1110,000 tons more than that in the same period last year, which is 20. 1% more than that in the same period last year. Apple stock is nearly 6.5438+0.2 million tons. According to the average yield of 2,500 kilograms per mu, the planting area is about 480,000 mu, and 45,000 standard football fields can be planted. Chi Guangyuan, general manager of Penglai Guangyuan Fruit Industry Co., Ltd., Yantai City, Shandong Province, who has been engaged in apple trade for many years, still remembers the scene of grabbing apples during the acquisition season from June to 10 last year. Buyers robbed things, fruit farmers refused to sell apples after picking them, and the purchase price rose again. Especially in the western region, northern Shaanxi and northern Guanzhong, which are rich in apples, a large number of red apples have flooded into cold storage, and fruit farmers and traders have high expectations for apple prices next year.
Apple will usher in the last and most important consumption period of this season. It is expected that inventory consumption will accelerate, but the time window is limited and it is difficult to support the spot price. How much is left in the 05 contract under the weak spot price environment? At present, the only spot price that can be fixed as 05 is the price of 03 contract, but before that, we think we need to consider some important issues. Under the condition of storing the "ordinary" futures price of Apple in May, the mutual promotion of spot during the demand period is further reduced. It is expected that the decline of the previous futures price will depend more on the inventory pressure, so the further space of Hu Shi's futures price needs the actual opening of the spot space. As the contract price drops, our attention gradually shifts to the contract for the new season.
The process of flowering, fruiting and bagging has never been experienced, but not to mention the downward direction, the risks in the middle are quite clear. From the long-term development of the industry, there is no obvious productivity and no obvious consumption point, and the upward trend of prices is difficult to support. On the other hand, under the trend of declining standards, the new season is stronger than the new season. The only explanation is, will there be serious meteorological disasters soon? When small probability events dominate the plate, the market outlook is likely to pick up. At the same time, we can see the last dark situation of traders grabbing goods in 2020. 202 1, the balance price may be affected by more experiences. Once there is no meteorological disaster, it is easy to step on the price.