Correspondingly, the consumer price index released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in March 2023, the national consumer price rose by 0.7% year-on-year and decreased by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. This is also the second time since February 2022 that CPI has fallen below "1", down 0.2 percentage points from 0.9% in February 2022, hitting a new low in a year.
On the one hand, the number of residents continues to increase at a hidden high level, on the other hand, the consumer price index continues to fall, which is also at a low level, which is 2. 1 percentage point lower than the relative high of 2.8% in September 2022. For them, it seems to belong to two categories, and there is no direct correlation between the data. But it is not difficult to find that they all reflect the same problem, that is, the downturn in the consumer market. If the consumer market is prosperous, residents' enthusiasm for consumption is high, and their willingness to save should not be too strong. Especially when the employment situation has not been effectively improved, business operation is still difficult, and residents' income growth is not very fast, the continuous increase of residents' savings can only show that residents' enthusiasm for consumption and investment is not very high, especially for consumption, showing obvious lack of confidence and expectations.
It is precisely because of residents' lack of desire and confidence that the consumer market is depressed and consumer prices are falling. Of course, it has some positive effects on residents' lives and can reduce expenses. However, from the perspective of economic development and enterprise management, it is not the same thing. It is necessary to take measures to enhance residents' confidence in consumption, stimulate residents' desire for consumption, maximize the activation of the consumer market, effectively stimulate the economy and form a positive role for enterprises. Otherwise, it may fall into the quagmire of deflation, which will have a very adverse impact on employment.
As far as the actual situation in China is concerned, deflation is unlikely and intolerable. Because the current problem is mainly the impact of the epidemic for three years, the economy is still recovering steadily and has not entered the fast lane. It can be felt that the rapid recovery is mainly in tourism, culture, catering, accommodation and other fields. And the consumption of automobile demand, daily necessities, housing, etc., which have rebounded through the "price war", have not obviously rebounded, so the overall pattern of the consumer market has not yet produced a positive effect.
It should be noted that the continuous increase of residents' savings has something to do with residents' low investment enthusiasm, except that their desire for consumption is not very strong and the consumer market is still relatively sluggish. At present, the investment fields such as stock market, bank financing and insurance are not very good. If residents have a strong desire to invest, they can effectively disperse their savings and will not form a phenomenon of continuous increase in savings. The stock market, in particular, has been in a downturn for a long time. As long as residents choose to invest in the stock market, they may suffer losses. Naturally, investors will stay away from the stock market, and then regain bank savings, so that their money is safe and don't take too much risks.
If the investment enthusiasm is not high and the consumption desire is not strong, the willingness to save will naturally become stronger and stronger. Reflected in loans, RMB loans increased by 10.6 trillion in the first quarter, an increase of 2.27 trillion over the same period of last year, which is also a little worse than deposits, indicating that the demand for funds by enterprises has not recovered to a vigorous state. In other words, the bank's credit support for small and medium-sized enterprises has not really entered a "reassuring" state, and it still cherishes loans and only wants to lend to large enterprises, local government financing platforms and developers. Obviously, this is not conducive to economic recovery and enterprises out of trouble.
We must attach great importance to and be alert to the continuous increase of residents' savings and the continuous decline of residents' consumer prices. These are not two isolated problems, nor are they two unrelated problems. Residents' consumption expectations reflected by the continuous increase in household savings are not strong, and the market downturn and residents' lack of enthusiasm for consumption reflected by the continuous decline in consumer prices may affect the level of economic recovery, that is, consumption has not yet played a strong role in driving economic recovery, and residents are still too calm on consumption issues, especially housing consumption, which is generally on the sidelines. Even if the policies are frequent, but the majority of residents do not move, there is no consumption trend, which not only affects the recovery of the whole consumption field, but also affects the recovery of the real estate market. How long can the developer's affordability last? This is a problem.
Many experts suggest that more policies should be introduced to encourage consumption. To tell the truth, these suggestions are taken for granted, but it's easy to stand and talk. The policy of encouraging consumption is to seek temporary benefits and make consumers consume impulsively and blindly, thus creating conditions for the recovery of the consumer market and meeting the immediate needs of economic interests. In fact, this is a means to overdraw the future development and has no substantive significance. On the contrary, it will have greater negative effects. Therefore, it is still necessary to let nature take its course and let residents restore their confidence and enthusiasm for consumption. As long as the economy recovers, residents' consumer confidence will definitely recover. There is no objection to this. There is only one policy to encourage residents to consume, and that is to give money. This in turn will leave room for inflation.