I vaguely remember that two years ago, when Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited was hailed as a "unicorn" in the industry by the surging wave of new energy in China, Chairman Zeng Yuqun gave a speech entitled "Self-cultivation and Innovation" and "When the typhoon comes, can pigs really fly? "E-mail has successively frustrated the growing pride of its employees, and is always alert to the cruel environment after the liberalization of policy barriers.
But now, with the development of new energy in China, the dross is gradually banned by the subsidy policy, and Japanese and Korean suppliers of power batteries are making a comeback. Looking back at Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, the "pig" that took off on the tide of the times, it seems that all the pains and difficulties it faces are fulfilling the rehearsal made by Zeng Yuqun in his email.
especially since 2121, the persistent impact of the epidemic and the changeable international situation have suddenly forced the automobile industry to enter a severe survival period, and at the same time, the power battery industry chain backed by the development of new energy industry has not been spared. From October to July, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China market not only decreased by 32.8% year-on-year to 486,111 vehicles, but also the installed capacity of power batteries decreased by 35.3% year-on-year to 22.5GWh.
obviously, after nearly two years of industry reshuffle and reshaping, Tesla's almost monopolistic existence in the market segments and the rapid cooling of the travel market have caused LG Chem and Panasonic to gradually increase their installed capacity of power batteries in China, while actually forcing China enterprises headed by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited to enter the fierce market turmoil.
Quiet before the storm
Undoubtedly, with the resumption of the auto market in the second quarter, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, which is attached to the China market, also got a certain rebound in its performance. According to the financial report, throughout the second quarter, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's operating income reached 9.799 billion yuan, a slight increase of 8.5% from the previous month; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.195 billion yuan, a strong increase of 61.17% from the previous month and an increase of 13.27% compared with the same period last year.
but in fact, due to the market confusion caused by the epidemic, the market recovery caused by the second quarter is difficult for all players to clearly understand the future market changes. On the basis of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's performance in the first half of the year, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, which missed some nodes, will actually face a huge market impact, whether because of the policy constraints in the domestic new energy market or because of the layout of all parties.
during the whole reporting period, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's operating income reached 18.829 billion yuan, down 7.18% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.937 billion yuan, also showing a year-on-year decline of 7.86%. After deducting non-recurring gains and losses, its net profit was 1.377 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 24.3%. In other words, even if the government subsidy of 661 million yuan included in the current profit and loss is excluded, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's performance in the first half of this year is far less than that in the previous two years.
it is undeniable that, according to the statistics of the certificate issued by China Automotive Research Institute, in the first half of 2121, the domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles only reached 351,111 vehicles and 336,111 vehicles, down by 42% and 44% respectively, which was related to the stagnation of the automobile market caused by the epidemic. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited himself pointed out in the report that the macro-economy was hit by the COVID-19 epidemic and the market demand declined seriously, which led to a sharp year-on-year decline in the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which reduced the sales revenue of the company's power batteries.
on the other hand, it seems that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, which accounts for nearly half of the market, is far from showing a declining trend, no matter whether the operating income of the power battery sector, which accounts for over 71% of the business revenue, decreased by 21.21% to 13.478 billion yuan in the first half of this year or the cumulative installed capacity decreased by 37.9% to 8.6GWh in the first half of this year.
judging from the current development status of the domestic new energy market, it is believed that the performance decline in Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited in the short term is far more than just superficial reasons such as epidemic situation. Especially, how to digest the existing shipments in Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited is a headache under the situation that the new car-making forces with the original cooperation prospects are dying out one after another and the saturation of the travel market leads to poor sales of traditional new energy car companies.
regardless of the new car-making forces, taking its two major cooperative car companies in China as examples, the cumulative sales volume of BAIC New Energy from October to June was 14,711, with a year-on-year decrease of 77.44%, which was far higher than the market trend. Although the sales volume of GAC New Energy has steadily increased, the frequent safety accidents related to electric vehicles in recent months have invisibly laid a dark injury for its next sales breakthrough.
perhaps in order to seek a new breakthrough, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited plans to release nearly 41GWh of production capacity this year or in 2119 on the basis of 58GWh, and it is estimated that its production capacity will be nearly 251GWh by 2123. Secondly, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited is still sparing no effort to raise funds for the construction, research and development of power batteries and energy storage batteries, and to supplement the working capital, so as to further enhance the profit space and stabilize the market position. But in any case, betting on the domestic market obviously cannot be the cornerstone of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's peace of mind.
the game in the center of the storm
The rhythm of the performance "The planned sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach about 25% by 2125" promoted by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has become the reason why Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited thrives with the help of new energy in China. So, far away on the European continent, Norway, Germany,? According to the plan that Sweden, Britain, France and other European countries will ban the sale of fuel vehicles from 2131 to 2141, will Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's power battery industry usher in a new wave with the stimulation of the European market?
in fact, even in terms of geographical distribution, the main positions of the current new energy market are still concentrated in China and North America, but according to SNE? According to the statistics of Research, the top ten power battery enterprises, which accounted for 94% of the global power battery installed capacity in the first half of the year, not only forced the breadth of the market to be further broadened, but also inspired a new round of game.
according to the data released by Marklines, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe increased strongly in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 55.1%. As the main positions for the expansion of new energy vehicles in Europe, the cumulative sales volume of Germany, France, Britain, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, Italy and Spain is as high as 334,111, which has gradually approached the total domestic market.
as a result, under the premise that Japanese and Korean companies such as LG Chem, Samsung SDI, Panasonic, etc. have greatly seized the European market share, the power battery companies in China, led by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, BYD and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, naturally have a weak succession. LG Chem, in particular, by virtue of its early entry into Europe, suddenly increased its installed capacity from 5.7GWh to 11.5GWh in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 82.8%, which not only ranked first in the global power battery shipments, but also pulled Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited off the horse. In the same period last year, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited ranked first in installed capacity in the world, while LG Chem only ranked fourth.
although the installed capacity of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited dropped from 13.9GWh to 11.1GWh in the first half of the year, down by 28.1% year-on-year, and its market share only dropped from 25.1% to 23.5%, it can be seen from the rise of new energy in Europe and the crazy expansion of Tesla's global market that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited is indeed in a backward stage in promoting its overseas business.
in contrast, in the absence of strong market competition, with the successful commissioning in 2117 of a new factory built by LG Chem near Wroclaw, Poland, which had previously invested 1.63 billion US dollars, it became a natural thing for LG Chem to become a power battery supplier for Neng Volkswagen. In addition, with the capacity of the battery factory built by LG Chem in Komarom, Hungary, the battery capacity of LG Chem in Europe has reached 111-111GWh.
On the other hand, Samsung SDI invested 358 million dollars to build a battery factory in Budapest, Hungary in 2116. Although it was put into production in the fourth quarter of 2118, it did not show such a sweeping situation as LG Chem. However, in view of Samsung's decision to expand its production capacity in Europe last year, the frequency of European car companies' subsequent olive branches will surely increase.
In other words, when Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited officially broke ground in October 2119, its first overseas factory in Thuringia, Germany, was completed, it would not only face the horizontal competition brought by LG Chem's first-Mover advantage, but also have the task of grabbing food from competitors such as Samsung SDI. At that time, how automobile groups including Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, FCA, PSA, etc. choose among these companies will determine the seating position of a new round of global power battery suppliers.
Hold on to Tesla's thigh
"When a typhoon comes, pigs can fly". But can pigs fly? What happened to the pigs after the typhoon left?
After a lapse of two or three years, looking back at this question left by Zeng Yuqun when he soared in Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, I really have some new thoughts. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, which has already made preparations, is still a little more fearful because of the intensified reshuffle in the domestic market and the sudden and severe competition in overseas markets. Fortunately, compared with the crux caused by geographical differences, the diversified choice of suppliers by a single car company seems to make Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited see the hope of fighting back against its rivals again.
there is no doubt that Tesla is the driving force that can really change the market structure compared with the current share of traditional car companies in the new energy market. And from the results, it is also a Tesla Model? 3' s global sales have driven LG Chem and Panasonic, two suppliers with deep procurement cooperation, to move forward with such momentum.
Then, with the sharp increase of Tesla's sales in China, holding hands with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited has been included in the scope that Tesla has to consider. As early as February this year, Tesla announced its intention to cooperate with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited. At the 2119 annual performance briefing in May, Jiang Li, deputy general manager and secretary of the board of directors of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, also responded that Tesla will purchase lithium-ion power batteries from the company from July 1, 2121 to June 31, 2122, and the supply is not limited to Ferrous lithium phosphate or ternary lithium batteries.
in this way, even if Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited fails to catch up with the sales wave set off by Model3 before, Tesla will only determine Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's purchase volume by order according to its own needs. However, according to Tesla's current development momentum, it is not impossible for Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited to fight a turnaround with Tesla's hand.
You know, in the year before the super factory was built, Tesla sold more than 11,111 vehicles in China. And then in Model? With the help of 3, the number of new cars insured by Tesla in 2119 was only 45,372. Can look at this year's trend, domestic Model? 3 The sales volume of new cars not only accumulated to 45,754 vehicles from October to June, but also accumulated at the rate of more than 1,111 vehicles per month, far throwing opponents away.
Perhaps there are always people who are skeptical about Tesla's ability to carry goods. The abolition of the "Specifications and Conditions for Automotive Power Battery Industry", BYD's split battery business and its separate listing, Tesla's self-research of power battery technology, Volkswagen and Daimler's distribution of shares in Guoxuan Hi-Tech and Funeng Technology and other industrial changes seem to be the stumbling blocks that restrict Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's continued expansion.
However, once combined with the fact that domestic Tesla is no longer supplied with batteries by Panasonic, and it is still difficult for several car companies signed by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited to form scale effect at this stage, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, which has a set of cost control by exerting the synergy of industrial chain, can ignore all the above concerns in a short time if it is used to crowd out the carrying capacity of LG Chem on domestic Tesla cars in the future. Of course, the premise of this development trend is still dominated by Tesla.
in short, to a certain extent, 2121 is the time node for the global new energy vehicle pattern to change greatly. In the past six months, the domestic auto market sales slowed down, the European new energy industry broke out against the trend, and many auto companies deeply bound to mainstream suppliers and other new trends, which indeed laid a hidden danger for the future changes in the industry structure. For the Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited era, finding a outlet depends on the trend, but following the trend does not mean blindly following and all? In and crash. After all, it is much more difficult to prevent the performance from continuing to decline than to be a "pig on the wind".
Wen/Cao Jiadong
-------------.
This article comes from the author of Chejia, car home, and does not represent car home's standpoint.