Economic operation has good support.
In response to the economic and social impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, China has successively promulgated and implemented a series of fiscal, monetary and employment policies, and recently the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Conference further clarified a number of policy measures. What is the main focus of these macro policies?
Liu Shangxi: The negative impact of COVID-19 epidemic makes employment, business operation and personal daily life in a highly uncertain environment. The epidemic has two direct effects. First, on the demand side, it causes the group demand to shrink, especially in tourism, catering, transportation and other industries, with obvious, direct and rapid impact; Second, on the supply side, affected by the epidemic, it is difficult for many enterprises to return to work after the Spring Festival.
A series of policies adopted by the state are aimed at injecting certainty, sharing risks and hedging the uncertainty and risks brought by the epidemic. In terms of fiscal policy, we should maintain a positive fiscal policy orientation and take effective measures, including strengthening financial security, reducing taxes and fees, and subsidizing loans. Recently, the central government has further proposed some important measures, such as appropriately increasing the fiscal deficit ratio, issuing special government bonds and increasing the scale of special local government bonds. These measures have washed away the negative impact of the epidemic on the stable operation of the economy and society, and highlighted the role of financial emergency. In terms of monetary policy, a series of measures have been taken to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity. These intensive policies have provided good support for winning the epidemic prevention and control war and stabilizing economic operation.
Liu Qiao: According to the economic data of February/kloc-0 released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the COVID-19 epidemic has had a great impact on the economy and society of China. At the beginning of the outbreak, China adopted a series of macro policies in a timely and decisive manner and strengthened counter-cyclical adjustment. These policies have played an important role in hedging the impact of the epidemic and preventing the economic operation from slipping out of the reasonable range.
For example, the central bank cut interest rates through the medium-term loan facility (MLF) and a large number of reverse repurchase operations, ensuring the relative adequacy of market and enterprise liquidity; A series of fiscal policies to reduce taxes and fees and reduce the burden on enterprises have also been introduced. These policies have played a positive role in stabilizing growth, stabilizing employment and helping the hardest-hit SMEs tide over the difficulties.
Wen Bin: Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, under the overall arrangement of the CPC Central Committee, various departments have issued many policies to help enterprises go global. For example, the central bank and other five departments jointly issued "Financial Article 30" to support epidemic prevention measures; Monetary policy will intensify the operation of the open market, maintain a reasonable and abundant market liquidity by reducing RRR and interest rates, reduce the financing cost of the real economy, and increase targeted support through special refinancing, rediscount and temporary extension of loans for small and micro enterprises. The financial department issued a series of fiscal and taxation policies in a timely manner, offering subsidies or tax concessions to patients in COVID-19, medical personnel and epidemic prevention personnel involved in prevention and control, and employees affected by the epidemic, giving financial discounts to loans from key enterprises for epidemic prevention and control, and implementing measures such as tax reduction and fee reduction for industries and enterprises that are greatly affected by the epidemic.
It can be said that the introduction and implementation of these policies have strongly supported the epidemic prevention and control work, played an important role in maintaining normal economic operation and ensuring social stability under the epidemic situation, and will also play a supporting role in accelerating the current economic recovery.
Insist on paying attention to structural problems
The central government proposed to strengthen the adjustment and implementation of macro policies. How should China's macro-policy maintain its strategic strength? What kind of logic should be used to formulate macro policies?
Liu Qiao: In the second quarter of this year, the global economy faced a "shutdown" for most of the time, which not only seriously affected external demand, but also brought the risk of global supply chain interruption, which inevitably brought great uncertainty to China's economic recovery. We need to think deeply about the macro-policy paradigm to hedge the impact of China epidemic, and further clarify the key areas of macro-policy positioning and implementation.
Under the situation that China's economy has turned to high-quality development and China's core growth logic has changed, we should persist in paying attention to structural problems in the face of the crisis, and the focus of macroeconomic policies should shift to hedging the structural impact of the epidemic on China's economy.
At present, the epidemic is spreading rapidly all over the world, and the goal of macroeconomic policy should be to hedge the structural impact of the epidemic on China's economy. Compared with the economic aggregate and growth rate, we should pay more attention to those indicators that can reflect the economic and social structure, such as the growth rate of total factor productivity, the changes in industrial and employment structure, the vitality of microeconomic units, the income distribution structure, the participation and positioning of global value chains, the intensity and innovation ability of R&D, and the return on investment capital. It should be a new paradigm of macro-policy in China to get rid of the constraints of rigid growth targets and intensify structural reforms.
Liu Shangxi: In addition to the economic level, the global epidemic risk will also have a great impact on the global industrial chain and supply chain. China's industrial supply chain has entered the global economy, which will affect the whole body. We need short-term measures and long-term consideration.
The impact of the epidemic on the economy is phased and short-term, and will not change the long-term positive fundamentals of China's economy. The epidemic will have a great impact on economic growth, especially in the first quarter, but through a series of policy hedging, the impact of the epidemic on the economy can be minimized. At present, we must do a solid job of "six stabilities", especially to stabilize expectations and push the economy and society back to normal as soon as possible. However, the uncertainties and risks brought by the epidemic cannot be overestimated. With adequate preparation, the risks in great changes become strategic opportunities.
Wen Bin: We should adhere to the principle of "focusing on ourselves" when formulating macro policies, and formulate and implement appropriate control policies according to the situation of domestic epidemic prevention and control and the situation and needs of economic and social development. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the spillover effect brought by overseas economic stimulus policies, as well as the impact of global economic recession and financial market volatility. It is necessary to increase the flexibility of macro policies, strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, and make full preparations to guard against various risk shocks.
Push more tax reduction and fee reduction measures.
Recently, China has adopted a series of fiscal and taxation measures, such as increasing capital investment and reducing taxes and fees. Next, how can a proactive fiscal policy be more active?
Liu Shangxi: We need to jump out of the traditional thinking, comprehensively analyze the public risks in various fields of economy and society, and make the fiscal policy more active from the perspective of stabilizing market expectations and enhancing social confidence under the controllable financial risks.
For the measures that have been clearly defined by the central government, such as appropriately increasing the proportion of fiscal deficit, issuing special government bonds, and increasing the scale of local government special bonds, it is necessary to further formulate specific implementation plans and give full play to the policy effect as soon as possible.
In the long run, promoting economic recovery and development requires not only policy arrangements to rescue the market, but also deepening reform and opening up and improving the business environment. Only by introducing new reform measures can we fundamentally enhance confidence and improve enterprise expectations.
Facing the unprecedented pressure of increasing revenue and reducing expenditure, we should vigorously optimize the expenditure structure. It is necessary to comprehensively adjust the budget and rearrange the expenditure items. It is necessary to optimize the allocation of financial funds and break the solidified pattern of expenditure. The projects that should be cut are resolutely cut, and the projects that should be guaranteed are guaranteed.
Financial funds are not unlimited. We should guide market forces and social forces. It is necessary to encourage the government to cooperate with social capital (PPP) and purchase services, introduce market-oriented reform measures, coordinate financial resources with market and social resources, form a joint force to fight the epidemic, and meet the people's demand for public services in an innovative way of * * * * * *.
At the same time, it is necessary to establish a feedback mechanism, make a timely and dynamic scientific evaluation of the policy effect, and constantly consolidate, revise and adjust it according to the changes in policy implementation and actual situation. Like drugs to treat diseases, policies and measures under uncertain conditions should always match the changes in risk status.
Liu Qiao: In view of the impact of the crisis on China's economy and the risks it brings, I think a more active fiscal policy should be implemented. From the structural impact, the impact of the epidemic is mainly reflected in two aspects. First, the impact on economic micro-basic enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises; The second is the impact on consumption and employment. Small and medium-sized enterprises provide more than 80% jobs in China, and consumption drives nearly 60% economic growth in China by 20 19. China's fiscal policy should focus on stabilizing employment and promoting consumption, and strive to create a better business environment for more than 30 million small and medium-sized enterprises and more than 90 million individual industrial and commercial households.
For small and medium-sized enterprises, more measures can be introduced in tax reduction and fee reduction. China's value-added tax reform is basically in place, and corporate income tax can be lowered in the future, which will enhance the investment confidence of small and medium-sized enterprises and improve the return on investment capital.
In promoting consumption, some policies can be adopted to hedge the impact of the epidemic. For example, by further adjusting personal income tax, increase the disposable income of individuals and families; Issue coupons for low-income groups and residents in Hubei Province; Wait a minute.
Wen Bin: Fiscal policy should give full play to the role of finance in making up for the failure of market allocation of resources and ensuring the smooth operation of the national economy. Specifically, we can appropriately expand the issuance scale of national debt and local government bonds, speed up the project progress, and form effective investment as soon as possible; Implement the tax reduction and fee reduction policies that have been introduced to effectively reduce the burden on enterprises; Increase financial support for "new infrastructure" and make up for shortcomings, promote infrastructure investment to play a supporting role, and form new economic growth points.
Monetary policy should be precise.
In the next step, how can a prudent monetary policy be more flexible and appropriate to provide accurate financial services for epidemic prevention and control, resumption of work and production, and development of the real economy?
Wen Bin: The requirement of "flexibility and moderation" continued the deployment of monetary policy at the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of last year. There are more difficulties and difficulties in China's economic development, so monetary policy should take into account multiple objectives. For example, at present, we should focus on fighting epidemic, inflation, exchange rate stability and economic development and find a balance point. At present, the COVID-19 epidemic has had a great impact on the economy, and the production and operation of small and medium-sized enterprises are generally difficult, especially the monetary policy needs greater support.
In the next stage, monetary policy should continue to intensify open market operations and interest rate cuts, maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and make great efforts to reduce the financing cost of the real economy. In view of the current high cost of bank liabilities, the limited space for pressure drop spreads, the deposits of enterprises and residential departments account for more than 60% of the total liabilities of banks, and the policy interest rate should not be changed frequently. It is obvious that lowering the benchmark interest rate of deposits in a timely and moderate manner will have a downward effect on LPR.
In addition, it is necessary to guide the steady decline of China's national debt yield, narrow the spread between China and the United States to a moderate level, increase the flexibility of RMB exchange rate, strengthen the monitoring and management of short-term cross-border funds, and guard against financial risks.
Qiao Liu: Even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates sharply, it will be difficult for the Bank of China to actively follow suit. First, China's current monetary policy transmission mechanism is still not smooth, and the interest rate "dual track system" still exists; Second, affected by the epidemic, the international industrial chain and supply chain have bottlenecks, and China's economy is facing greater inflationary pressure. Therefore, the formulation of monetary policy should not be flooded with water, but should emphasize precise policy, meet real credit demand and prevent credit crunch.
Liu Shangxi: Monetary policy should focus on improving liquidity. While monetary policy is tight and moderate, it is necessary to remove the obstacles of policy transmission and dredge the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Monetary policy should really improve liquidity, and even take unconventional financial measures, such as some foreign central banks directly buying corporate commercial paper to stabilize corporate capital chain, industrial chain and supply chain.
Dealing with risks requires coordination.
At present, the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase. What targeted policy measures can be taken? How do macro-policy tools work together?
Liu Qiao: To stabilize economic growth, we must play the role of effective investment, and we must look for new and large-scale investment fields according to the changes in China's economic logic. It is suggested that all parties pay attention to two investment fields related to infrastructure and with large space.
First, infrastructure investment related to people's livelihood, such as old city reconstruction, rental housing, urban public facilities construction and other fields.
The second is the construction of infrastructure and public service facilities in central cities and metropolitan areas. By promoting the integration of infrastructure and equalization of basic services, we will increase the urban agglomeration effect and the optimal population size that cities can accommodate, promote the formation of a unified big market, let more people enter the "market", achieve per capita income growth through agglomeration, and narrow the development gap.
Liu Shangxi: The essence of state governance is public risk management. Whether public risks can be minimized and whether people can live and work in peace and contentment is the basic standard to measure the modernization of state governance. In the final analysis, it is still necessary to boost social confidence and prevent public risks by deepening reforms.
Coping with public risks is not just a matter for one or some departments, but involves the governance of the whole country, which requires the full cooperation of all departments. Therefore, macro policies such as finance, currency and employment should not be "single-handedly", but a policy combination and coordination mechanism should be established. In addition, it is necessary to establish a scientific assessment mechanism to evaluate, assess and supervise the work of departments from the perspective of policy effects, so as to avoid "leaving traces" of supervision. For example, enterprise financing, finance should be coordinated with financial policy. By providing financial means such as loan discount and guarantee fee subsidy, the financial shortage faced by some industries and enterprises can be solved in a targeted manner and the financing cost can be reduced.
We should give priority to stabilizing employment. A large number of small and medium-sized enterprises are on the owner's channel. On the one hand, protecting the capital chain of small and medium-sized enterprises means protecting jobs, reducing the impact of the epidemic on the employment stock and avoiding the transformation of economic risks into social risks; On the other hand, it creates conditions for small and medium-sized enterprises to resume work and production, and provides help for recruitment.
Wen Bin: Macro-policies should strengthen coordination and cooperation, form a joint force, effectively cope with the impact of the epidemic and global economic fluctuations, and accelerate economic and social recovery and development.
For example, in view of the short-term impact caused by the epidemic, according to the characteristics of different industries, targeted support measures such as employment, industry, finance, and finance were introduced to open up channels for people flow, logistics, and capital flow to ensure the labor, raw materials, and funds needed for resumption of work and production. We should continue to make good use of financial means such as loan discount and guarantee subsidy. Give full play to the policy role and reduce the financing cost of enterprises. It is necessary to promote the temporary postponement of repayment of principal and interest of loans for small and medium-sized enterprises as a whole, and financial, financial and regulatory support should be given.
Policies should be more balanced. Employment is related to residents' life and social stability. It is necessary to strengthen the support of macro policies such as finance and finance for employment, especially for services, manufacturing and other industries and major investment projects that attract more employment, and increase support in terms of funds, policies and guarantees.
A large number of private enterprises and small and micro enterprises are the main force to absorb employment, and the difficulties encountered by these enterprises in the epidemic are widely concerned. It is necessary to implement the policies that have been promulgated, do everything possible to make them survive, and ensure the overall situation of basically stable employment.