But now December is already halfway through, consumption is still no obvious improvement, pig prices are even lower and lower.
Where did the promised peak season go?
Since the October hog prices rose in advance, it seems to have exhausted its strength in advance, to November after the hog prices began to fall straight down, but also basically stabilized at the position of 22-23 yuan / kg.
If we follow the script, December to the peak season of consumption, with the growth of consumption, hog prices should have been a pattern of stopping the decline back to warm up.
But the hog market has suffered a "heavy setback" after the rhythm was completely disrupted.
To be exact, pig prices have suffered two rounds of "heavy setbacks":
The first round is the epidemic in November sealed control, so that consumption continues to weaken.
In fact, in November, some of the southern region has been signs of pickling, but in November, with the recurrence of the epidemic, the country sealed control, food and beverage and supermarkets and other consumption significantly lower.
Consumption is not good, coupled with the slaughterhouse trend price pressure, so pig prices continue to fall.
On the other hand, compared to the big rise in October, the fall in November seems to be very panic, greatly exceeding the market expectations, and even under the rapid decline, farmers began to panic out of the pen, resulting in a further decline in pig prices.
In this way, the price of hogs from the position of 28 yuan / kg in October back to 22 yuan / kg, the decline can not be said to be not big, but this time with the change of 2 factors, so that the hog market has become still predictable.
The first is that as time goes on, into December, the weather becomes colder, meat consumption gradually ushered in the peak season.
Combined with an earlier Spring Festival this year, which means that stockpiling before the year will also be advanced, pork consumption is expected to usher in an upturn.
The second is that the adjustment of the prevention and control policy is a major benefit to both restaurants and consumption.
But what the market did not expect is that this good has become the second round of pig market "setback".
Because with the unsealing, the market and catering consumption did not usher in the expected growth, but the rapid growth of infection rates around the world, but more people at home to take medication to rest, supermarkets, markets and so on, but became even more than before, which makes the consumption of cold again.
On the other hand, the scale of the farm is still increasing, to seize market share, and even a number of large-scale farms have to shift to next year's trend.
So under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, the price of hogs in December not only did not usher in a rebound, but even more frustrated, and has fallen below the 20 yuan / kg mark, which means that the price of hogs has fallen back into the single digits.
In the previous analysis of the trend, we have mentioned that for this year's pig market, the epidemic is the biggest "gray rhino", because it is too many uncertain factors.
And now look, this "gray rhino" is really powerful.
So, the original rhythm of the pig market has been completely disrupted.
On the one hand, the follow-up to see, although this year's Spring Festival will be significantly more people will go home to celebrate the New Year, is conducive to boosting consumption, but according to official forecasts, the next month will usher in the infection of the peak, which in turn formed a significant suppression of consumption.
If before the market for the price of hogs still have a glimmer of hope, but now basically do not expect it to rise how much, or no longer continue to fall is fortunate.
On the other hand, although it is said that after the winter solstice, consumption is expected to gradually warm up, but in the position of the current price of hogs, farmers, especially the second fattening households have no hope for the follow-up, the only current expectation is to be able to lose a little less.