Pig market:
With the arrival of New Year's Eve, the dust settled in the Lunar New Year pig market in 2022, and the pig price showed a "jumping tail" performance. On June 5,438+1October 2 1, the pig price hovered around 15.38 yuan/kg, and at the end of the twelfth lunar month, the pig price stopped falling and rose by about 10.24%. However, the price of pigs increased significantly before the holiday.
During the Spring Festival holiday, the purchase and sale of live pigs stopped, and slaughterhouses stopped working for a holiday. Although some small and medium slaughterhouses still have pig collection plans, the domestic pig market is difficult to change significantly, and the pig price fluctuates sideways! For the market after the year, the pig price will go down with the trend!
On the one hand, the inertia of consumer demand weakens after the year, and residents stock up more before the festival. After the year, the consumption of refrigerator inventory is the main reason, and the enthusiasm for purchasing pork is poor. At that time, students had not returned to school, migrant workers had not returned, the catering industry recovered slowly, and the demand was significantly reduced!
On the other hand, before the Spring Festival, the daily average slaughter pressure of pigs was greater, and the losses at the breeding end were obvious. Retail investors and some second-time fattening pigs are getting worse, and some suitable pig sources that have not been cleaned up in time will be slaughtered after the year. The supply of live pigs is relatively loose, there are fewer orders downstream of slaughterhouses, and the mood of purchasing on demand is strong, and the mood of price reduction is high!
Therefore, there is a high probability that the pig price will fluctuate downward after the year. However, due to the low price of live pigs, the space for pig prices to fall may be narrow. In particular, the ratio of pig to grain continued to decline, and the market bullish sentiment gradually picked up. Boosted by official purchasing and storage expectations, the market may fluctuate strongly after a short-term decline after the pig price holiday. But at present, it seems that the support for the rise of pig prices is insufficient, and the rebound rate of pig prices is weak!
Egg market:
Near New Year's Eve, the upward trend of domestic egg prices has gradually come to an end. Due to the decrease in the arrival of goods in the sales market, the increase in freight rates and the strong downstream demand, this also supports the trend that the egg price in the wholesale market remains high and sideways! However, with the weakening of the supply of goods in the producing areas, the market stocking has gradually come to an end, and the price of eggs in the producing areas has gradually decreased. With the arrival of New Year's Eve, the supply and demand market has gradually stagnated, and prices have also dropped to some extent. Among them, the price of eggs in the production and marketing market fell to 4.86~5.02 yuan/kg!
Judging from the trend of eggs in the Spring Festival market over the years, from 20 18 to 2022, the price of eggs after the holiday generally decreased by 3~ 10% compared with that before the holiday, and the price of eggs after the holiday in 20 19 decreased by 22%.
From the market experience, egg prices are still weak and fluctuating after the Spring Festival!
According to the institutional analysis, newly opened layers in 1 month were affected by the supplement of chickens in September. Because the market added 4.25% in September, the egg production capacity increased slightly this month. However, due to the elimination of old chickens, the production capacity is still tight after this month's discount, and the pressure on egg supply is not reduced!
After the Spring Festival, the inertia of the demand side fell, and the market was dominated by inventory backlog. Traders are not interested in obtaining goods. However, the eggs in the producing areas were affected by the Spring Festival, and the phenomenon of inventory accumulation increased, and the price of eggs fell after the holiday! In the market of producing areas, the average price of eggs will drop to about 4.3 yuan/kg. However, with the return of students and the resumption of production, the demand for collectivization will gradually increase, and the price of eggs will gradually strengthen!
Refined oil market:
In 2023 1 month, domestic refined oil prices were adjusted twice. After the discount, the oil price rises by about 45 yuan/ton! The oil price of 65438+1October 24:00 17 was lowered by 205 yuan and 195 yuan/ton respectively, of which the price of No.92 gasoline in Shandong remained at 7.58 yuan/liter, and that of No.92 gasoline in Beijing remained at 7.62 yuan/liter!
As the oil price was lowered for the first time this year, a new pricing cycle began. At present, in the first three working days after the end, the change rate of crude oil is maintained at 5. 14%, and the oil price is expected to increase by 2 10 yuan/ton, which is 10 yuan higher than the previous working day, which is equivalent to an increase of 0. 16~0.2 yuan/liter.
According to the international crude oil market, as of press time, the price of WTI crude oil in the United States remained at 80.7 USD/barrel, and the price of Brent crude oil remained at 86. 19 USD/barrel. In recent days, the oil price in the international crude oil market has fluctuated sideways, and the price level of WTI crude oil hovers around $80!
Therefore, due to the recent sharp rise in crude oil prices, the domestic crude oil change rate remains strong. Therefore, this round of oil price increase may be the general trend. However, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the current pricing cycle still has 7 working days and will span the Spring Festival holiday. The price adjustment window will open at 24: 00 on February 3, and there are still some variables in oil prices. However, personally, the market is expected to rise strongly!
Market changes! After the Spring Festival, the prices of live pigs, eggs and gasoline "decreased by 2 and increased by 1". What happened? What do you think of this? The above is my personal opinion!
Solve puzzles (riddles) on the question bank of the Lantern Festival in tanzhou town, Zho