GDP is expected to grow by 6.9 percent for the whole of 2015, with CPI rising by 1.5 percent. Looking ahead to 2016 economic growth, China's economic development in the long-term good fundamentals have not changed, but by the structural, cyclical factors superimposed on the impact of the next year's economic operation is still facing a greater downward pressure, the need to take proactive and powerful macro-policies and speed up the promotion of reforms to cope with it, and can still be maintained in a reasonable range.
●Overall Characteristics of Annual Economic Operation
The overall characteristics of economic operation in 2015 are slowing down, progressing, and worrying in a steady manner, with increasing differentiation in various fields, and coexistence of favorable and unfavorable factors in the process of power transformation.
Industrial structure continues to be optimized, with structural recession and structural prosperity co-existing. In the first three quarters, the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP reached 51.4%, up 2.3 percentage points from the same period of the previous year, and 10.8 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry. The internal structural adjustment of industry has been accelerated, new industries, new forms and new products have grown faster, and the industrial structure has accelerated to the middle and high-end level. However, there are big differences in the prosperity of the industry.
One is part of the overcapacity industry is very difficult. Resource-based, heavy chemical industry generally in trouble, the growth rate fell sharply, coal, iron and steel, cement and other products output fell significantly, the industry's overall inventory pressure is greater, is still in the adjustment of the bottom of the development stage, to get out of the predicament will take some time. Second, the rapid development of high-tech industries. Computer communications, new energy, new materials, pharmaceutical manufacturing and other industries have obvious advantages, the growth rate is much faster than the traditional manufacturing industry. Third, the development of new service industry is strong. Service new forms, new modes to continue the high growth trend in the past two years, e-commerce, logistics and express delivery industry performance is particularly eye-catching.
The three major demand tends to balance the development of internal differentiation gradually highlighted. since 2015, the consumption growth remains stable, the investment growth rate continues to slow down, the export growth rate shifting gears, the three major demand tends to balance the development. In the first three quarters, final consumption expenditure contributed 58.4% to GDP growth, 15 percentage points higher than investment, and consumption has become the main engine of economic growth. From the internal view of the three major demands, the differentiation is gradually highlighted, and both depression and prosperity coexist. Investment, real estate investment continued to fall, monthly investment has been negative growth, infrastructure investment to maintain a faster growth rate, manufacturing investment stabilized in slow.
Consumption, online retailing, communication goods, tourism and other areas of consumption grew rapidly, while oil and products consumption declined sharply. In terms of exports, general trade exports maintained positive growth, while processing trade exports declined sharply, and the export advantage of the traditional seven categories of labor-intensive products declined significantly.
Regional economic growth disparities are significant, and a multi-speed growth pattern has emerged. Some industrial foundation, structural diversification, fast pace of adjustment, high degree of openness of the region, the economy still maintains a good momentum of development; while some of the industrial structure of backward single, overcapacity in the industry is more concentrated in the region, the economic downturn faster.
Chongqing and Guizhou two places against the market upward, achieved 10% and above the ultra-high-speed growth, leading the country; the vast majority of provinces is relatively stable, remain in the 7%-9% medium and high speed growth range; Liaoning, Shanxi and other resource-based, heavy chemical industry province downward pressure, deceleration is large, the growth rate is less than 3%, and even some of the province's cities and municipalities in negative growth, the situation is extremely unpromising. The situation is extremely bleak.
Enterprise sentiment polarization, the same industry within the ice and fire. On the one hand, some large enterprises, listed companies to seize the market, policy opportunities, to play its scale, brand and other advantages, the development of relatively good. On the other hand, a large number of traditional enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises are still generally facing difficulties in survival and transformation.
People's livelihood continued to improve, with income and employment indicators performing relatively well. In the first three quarters, 10.66 million people were newly employed in urban areas, ahead of the full-year target, and the urban survey unemployment rate stabilized at 5.1%-5.2%. Residents' incomes have realized the requirement of being "two times higher than". In the first three quarters, per capita disposable income of residents nationwide reached RMB 16,367, an increase of 7.7% year-on-year in real terms, which was 0.8 percentage points higher than the growth rate of GDP in the same period. The disposable income per capita of rural residents increased by 8.1% year-on-year, 1.3 percentage points higher than the real growth rate of disposable income per capita of urban residents in the same period.
Prices were generally stable, with structural deflationary pressures increasing. Influenced by the lack of new upward factors and seasonal and climatic factors, monthly consumer price increases throughout the year were less than 2%, with individual months below 1%, and the overall price level was stable. However, by the overall weak domestic demand and international commodity prices continue to fall the impact of production in the field of raw materials, fuel prices continue to decline, producer price index PPI for 45 consecutive months of negative growth, and the rate of decline, the risk of structural deflation in the industrial sector has become more prominent.
● The main problems in economic operation
One is the lack of investment growth momentum. 1-November total investment in new projects planned year-on-year growth of only 4.7%, a decline of 8.8 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Especially more than 100 million yuan of new projects planned total investment growth rate is even lower, the lack of new large projects is more prominent. Mainly due to the local government by the financing platform cleanup, real estate market downturn and economic growth caused by the decline in fiscal revenue growth rate and other factors, some of the projects, especially large projects of the source of funds is limited, resulting in some of the measures to stabilize growth is difficult to land.
At the same time, despite the country's efforts to promote decentralization, but the reform measures have not yet been fully in place, the active service consciousness is poor, there are still investment projects need to tandem signatures of various departments to approve the phenomenon of approval of the many links, administrative efficiency is also low, affecting the implementation of measures to stabilize growth.
The second is the market clearing difficulties. As of November, industrial factory prices have been 45 consecutive months of negative growth, more than the 1997 Asian financial crisis period of negative growth record, and along with the economic growth rate downward, the capacity utilization rate further decline in the situation of overcapacity to ease the difficulty of further increase in excess industry has expanded the trend. Overcapacity has led to the continued deterioration of business efficiency.
1 - October, the national large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises accumulated losses to 38.638 billion yuan, of which the main business loss of 72 billion yuan, 101 large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises in the 48 losses, losses expanded to 47.5%. October, the country's 22 cities in the five categories of varieties of steel social inventories rose from the previous year. The total steel market inventory of 8.381 million tons, an increase of 269,300 tons over the previous month, up 3.35%. Currently there is an urgent need to restore the balance of supply and demand in the market through market clearance.
But by the excess capacity of the industry's asset-heavy technical and economic characteristics, local government protection and other subjective and objective factors, the resolution of overcapacity and the removal of "zombie enterprises" are still facing various difficulties. A large amount of resources solidified in the overcapacity industry, inhibiting the development of strategic new industries and modern service industry and other areas.
Thirdly, the pressure on employment is gradually coming to the fore. This year, the rapid growth of the tertiary industry to promote employment stability, but by the capital market fluctuations, the impact of the downturn in aggregate demand, non-manufacturing sector of the boom is also on the downward trend in October non-manufacturing PMI index has been lower than the year's high in July, 0.8 percentage points, the tertiary industry's ability to absorb employment is weakened.
And with the further increase of economic downward pressure, some traditional industries and overcapacity industries are barely maintaining the employment situation may be broken, part of the hidden unemployment may become visible, the employment pressure will be further highlighted, and may have an impact on the stability of employment next year.
At the same time, despite the online retailing of goods, express delivery and other emerging industries have created some new jobs, but must also note the impact of online stores on brick-and-mortar stores and the significant substitution effect. Research reflects that books, clothing, home appliances and other products of the physical stores have been the biggest impact, some physical stores operating difficulties and even appeared to close the tide. Some of the traditional department stores have also suffered a greater impact, the business climate continues to decline, which has a greater impact on the employment of the relevant groups.
Fourth, financial risks have increased. The problems of the real economy, such as the serious problem of overcapacity, the deterioration of enterprise efficiency, and the liquidation of local government financing platforms, have begun to be transmitted to the financial sector. since 2012, the non-performing loan balances of commercial banks have shown a quarterly upward trend, and have now risen for 16 consecutive quarters, with the rate of non-performing loans rising from 0.94% in the first quarter of 2012 to 1.50% in the second quarter of 2015, and further rising to 1.59% in the third quarter. further rose to 1.59%, up 0.09% quarter-on-quarter, and the provision coverage ratio fell from 287.40% to 190.79% during the same period. Difficult and expensive financing has also led to the rise of illegal fund-raising in some areas. These problems are intertwined and transmitted to each other, increasing the downward pressure on the economy and leading to a rise in financial risks.
●Analysis of economic growth trend in 2016
Investment growth may drop to around 9% in 2016.
Manufacturing investment growth may fall by 1.5 percentage points, pulling down investment growth by about 0.5 percentage points. First, the decline in business sentiment affects investment enthusiasm. The study found that 60% of the change in the growth rate of manufacturing investment can be explained by the previous year's corporate profit growth rate.
Since 2015, the total profits of industrial enterprises continued to grow negatively, down about 5 percentage points from the previous year. The deterioration of industrial corporate profits inhibited enterprises from expanding investment. And in the first half of the year benefited from the stock market continued to be active, the rapid growth of non-main business income of enterprises, if you remove its impact, the business situation of enterprises is worse than the profit data show.
Two is the overcapacity is still prominent, new investment is not enough power. From this year's industry statistics, the problem of overcapacity is still prominent, and along with the economic downturn, the capacity utilization rate further decline, overcapacity industry has a tendency to expand. Third, the high-tech manufacturing industry is still small, difficult to provide sufficient investment support. The national high-tech manufacturing investment year-on-year growth higher than all manufacturing investment of nearly 4 percentage points, but its share is less than 10% of manufacturing investment growth pulling weak.
Real estate investment may fall to zero growth. First, the current structure of the source of funds is difficult to support the growth of real estate investment. Although 1-11 months of real estate development enterprises in place of funds increased by 1.3% year-on-year, the growth rate for many months to improve. But from the source of funds, domestic loans, foreign capital, self-financing are negative growth for many months, only the deposit and advance receipts and personal mortgage loans positive growth.
The second is the real estate development enterprises land acquisition area of negative year-on-year growth. 1-11 months, real estate development enterprises land acquisition area fell 33.1% year-on-year. Third, the current real estate market boom is still not fully recovered. The current real estate market boom is structural rather than overall. From the regional point of view, the first and second tier cities have more uptrend, while the third and fourth tier cities are in the doldrums. From the structure of housing purchases, the improvement of housing boom degree is high, while the boom degree of rigid housing and high-end housing category is relatively low. real estate sales growth rate has been declining since October.
Infrastructure investment growth may fall back 2 percentage points. First, the source of funds is limited. Affected by the economic downturn, the growth rate of fiscal revenue fell sharply, and if the real estate market boom next year again, the local government's sources of funding will be subject to great constraints. Secondly, some reform measures may inhibit local government investment expansion in the short term. The new budget law, limit local investment competition and local judicial, discipline system reform to strengthen the checks and balances of local government economic behavior constraints, the short term may inhibit the expansion of local investment and financing.
Consumption is likely to enter single-digit growth.
One is the continued deceleration of urban and rural residents' income growth. Residents' income in the first three quarters grew by 7.7% in real terms, 0.8 percentage points higher than the economic growth rate. However, in terms of annual comparison, it is a continuous deceleration. Second, consumer confidence may be weakened by the impact of factors such as unemployment manifestation. Third, some hot consumption may slow down. Firstly, the effect of the automobile consumption encouragement policy has weakened. Secondly, this year by the fluctuation of gold prices and stock market fluctuations caused by increased risk aversion, the third quarter for the purpose of preservation of value-added gold, silver and jewelry category of consumption greatly strengthened, the average growth rate of 13%, but not sustainable.
Exports may be slightly higher than this year.
One is the external environment remains complex. The International Monetary Fund's October report expects the recovery of advanced economies to weaken in 2016, but the growth rate of emerging market countries has picked up in 2016. Second, the policy environment optimization and low base may improve export growth, imports may be low growth. The reason for the negative growth of imports this year is mainly due to the decline in commodity prices, the decline in the number of imports is not large. It is expected that next year, the number of imports will be a narrow decline in the impact of prices to reduce imports to achieve a low rate of growth.
Overall, the economy is still facing greater downward pressure next year, and the economic growth rate is likely to fall further.
Macro policy choices in 2016
The focus of macro policy in 2016 is still to grasp the balance of stabilizing growth, adjusting structure and preventing risks, based on the present, focusing on the long term, and exerting efforts from both sides of supply and demand.
Active fiscal policy is more vigorous. First, it is proposed to further expand the size of the deficit, increase the deficit rate, and the new deficit will be mainly used for major national projects, cross-regional and cross-basin investment projects and key projects with strong externalities.
Second, it is recommended that consideration be given to increasing the scale of issuance of central government bonds and appropriately raising the amount of local government bond issuance, continuing to push forward the work of debt replacement at the right time, easing the pressure on local governments to repay their debts, freeing up some space for localities to use for other areas of expenditure, guaranteeing a reasonable level of investment in local public ****services and a stable supply of public ****infrastructure construction, and boosting economic growth.
Thirdly, further efforts will be made to revitalize the stock of funds, which will be coordinated and used for expenditures in key areas such as transportation, water conservancy and people's livelihood. Fourth, it will appropriately increase transfer payments for the northeastern region and other difficult areas, and work with other related policies to enhance their independent growth momentum.
The prudent monetary policy is more loose and tight. First, it is recommended to continue to reduce the reserve requirement ratio and benchmark interest rate, to maintain abundant liquidity in the face of increased capital outflows, and to guide market interest rates downward. In the context of maintaining the overall trend of the exchange rate is basically stable, according to the market situation, continue to release the pressure of RMB depreciation, and further reduce the pressure on the export sector.
Secondly, stabilize the stock market, develop the multi-level capital market, and further improve the financing function of the capital market. Wide entry and strict exit, to prevent the risk of large-scale capital outflow. Third, play a good role in targeted regulation, further expand the scale of capital utilization by developmental and policy financial institutions, and support the construction of key areas.
Speed up structural reform. Continue to promote decentralization, accelerate the dissolution of excess capacity and clean up zombie enterprises, take effective measures to effectively reduce the cost of various types of enterprises, guide the "double creation" activities to a deeper depth, and deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises.
To fully mobilize local enthusiasm. Establish a positive incentive mechanism for local governments in reform and development, and overcome the tendency of inaction. Actively explore a new type of competition mechanism for local governments in the new situation, to ensure fairness and justice, but also to fully mobilize local enthusiasm.