New Beijing News (Reporter Jiang Huizi) recently, 31 provinces in the first half of this year, the main economic indicators are all out, with the new Crown pneumonia epidemic prevention and control situation is good, the economy around the steady recovery trend. In the first half of the year, the total economic output of six provinces exceeded 2 trillion yuan, the top three for Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shandong, Guangdong to 4,923,420,000,000 yuan to lead. In terms of economic growth, 16 provinces realized positive growth, with 13 seats occupied by central and western provinces, and Tibet ranked first in the country with a growth rate of 5.1%.

Economic recovery is inseparable from investment, consumption and exports. In the second quarter, the three major demand is obviously warming up, *** with pulling the regional economic growth. GDP growth rate of the top two Tibet and Xinjiang, its fixed asset investment growth rate is also to "double-digit" leading the country. The total retail sales of consumer goods growth rate of the first two Anhui and Jiangxi, its GDP also realized positive growth.

GDP: 16 provinces with positive growth, 13 in the central and western provinces

In terms of economic output, the top three provinces are still Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shandong, with Guangdong continuing to lead the country with 4,923.42 billion yuan. In the first half of the year, six provinces have an economic total of more than 2 trillion yuan; 19 provinces have an economic total of more than 1 trillion yuan.

From the point of view of economic growth, 16 provinces realized positive GDP growth in the first half of the year, 15 more than in the first quarter. Among them, the central and western provinces occupy 13 seats, 7 provinces economic growth rate of more than 1%. Tibet ranked first in the country with a growth rate of 5.1%; Xinjiang was second with a growth rate of 3.3%.

Among the three eastern provinces, Jilin had the best economic data in the first half of the year, with its GDP growth rate rebounding from -6.6% in the first quarter to -0.4%, narrowing the decline by 6.2 percentage points, much higher than that of Heilongjiang (-4.9%) and Liaoning (-3.9%).

Hubei, hit hardest by the epidemic, had the lowest economic growth rate in the country in the first half of the year at -19.3%. However, with the city unsealed, the resumption of work and production in an orderly and accelerated, Hubei's economy has shown a strong momentum, the first half of the economic growth rate rebounded in the 31 provinces, the largest, the rate of decline than the first quarter narrowed by 19.9 percentage points.

Interpretation: After the epidemic is under control, the economy will gradually become normal

The reporter combed through the total economic volume of more than 1 trillion yuan in 19 provinces, the economic growth rate of 10 provinces, growth rate of more than 1% of only one province, Hunan. The remaining six provinces with growth rates of more than 1% are located in the second half of the total list.

Analyzing the reasons, Jia Kang, a researcher at the China Academy of Fiscal Sciences, believes that the epidemic impact is the most important factor, and the provinces with better economic growth performance are generally less impacted by the epidemic. Larger volume, better structure of the provinces, due to stores, restaurants, theaters and other services in the economic structure of a higher proportion of the service sector was hit hard, affecting the overall economic data performance, the epidemic after the still need a period of time to recover.

"However, this situation will gradually converge, and after the epidemic is under control, the economic performance will gradually approach the regular state." Jia Kang said.

Jia Kang believes that from the first half of the year around the situation, the pace of economic recovery overall in line with expectations. In the first half of the economy to achieve positive growth in the provinces has increased from 1 in the first quarter to 16, which shows that the negative growth in the first quarter is only a short-term phenomenon under the superposition of a variety of factors.

At present, the short-term impact of the main wave has passed, can be seen in the uncertainty of certainty, 2020 economic operation from the "before the low" into the "after the high" is an inevitable trend. In the long run, although there are still a lot of uncertainties from the short term to the medium and long term, but "the long-term trend of the Chinese economy remains unchanged," the judgment is real and objective basis.

Consumption: Growth of total retail sales of consumer goods in 31 provinces was negative

Total retail sales of consumer goods, which reflects the consumption situation, remained negative in the first half of the year, dropping by 11.4% year-on-year. However, the rate of decline has continued to narrow, with total retail sales of social consumption goods falling 1.8% year-on-year in June.

By province, the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumption goods was negative in 31 provinces, with Hubei down 34.1% year-on-year, and Heilongjiang, Tianjin, and Jilin down 22.7%, 21.7%, and 20% year-on-year, respectively. In addition, there were 12 provinces with double-digit declines. Anhui, Jiangxi, Fujian fell 3.5%, 4.2% and 5.4%, respectively, the best performance.

However, the warmth of the consumer recovery can be seen in the monthly data. In Anhui, total retail sales of consumer goods in the second quarter turned from an 11.9% decline in the first quarter to an increase of 5.1%, with retail sales of limited consumer goods in April, May, and June increasing by 10%, 12%, and 7.9%, respectively. The Anhui Provincial Bureau of Statistics said that the consumer market has gradually entered a sustained growth stage.

Jiangxi in June, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 7.0%, respectively, compared with April, May 5.4 and 7.8 percentage points, showing accelerated warming trend. Among them, the limit above the unit realized retail sales growth of 12.7%, only 0.2 percentage points lower than the same period last year, basically back to the normal level.

Interpretation: The recurrence of small-scale epidemics has little impact on consumption

New consumption is bucking the trend, providing support for the steady rebound of consumption.

Anhui in the first half of the limited wholesale and retail enterprises online merchandise retail sales increased by 38.7% year-on-year, accelerated by 5.2 percentage points compared to the first quarter; limited to the accommodation and catering enterprises through the Internet to achieve a 58.8% increase in meal revenue, accelerated by 15.6 percentage points.

Jiangxi in the first half of the limited units through the public **** network to achieve retail sales of goods 13.827 billion yuan, an increase of 34.7%, 36.6 percentage points higher than the increase in retail sales of limited units. The proportion of retail sales accounted for 10.0%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points over the same period last year.

At the same time, the traditional aggregated consumption with the prevention and control of the orderly relaxation of restrictions is also a steady rebound.

According to the data provided by Lian Ping, chief economist of Phython Investments, as of mid-July, the resumption rate of enterprises above the quota of retail businesses was more than 96%, and the catering and night market continued to rebound. National rural tourism resumption of work resumption rate of 90% as a whole, theater resumption rate rose from 8.1% on July 20 to 46.5% on July 26, resumption of work since the week of the cumulative total box office of about 113 million yuan, reaching about 9.84% of the same period last year.

In terms of specific measures, Beijing recently restarted the "season of consumption" activities, and many places again issued consumption coupons.

There are also a number of policies to support automobile consumption.

According to Lian Ping, although a small epidemic recurred in some areas in July, the overall impact on the growth of retail sales of consumer goods was not significant. The recovery of aggregated consumption may enhance the overall rebound of consumption, and the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumption in July may turn from negative to positive.

Real estate: most provinces' real estate investment growth rate is lower than last year

By the impact of the new Crown Pneumonia epidemic, the national property market is in the doldrums. To June, the relevant indicators only appeared to rebound warmth. National Bureau of Statistics data show that in the first half of the year, real estate development investment "from decline to rise", a year-on-year growth of 1.9%, while 1-5 months for the decline of 0.3%. Among them, residential investment growth of 2.6%, the growth rate accelerated by 2.6 percentage points.

In the first half of the real estate investment growth rate has been announced in 28 provinces, Hubei, Hainan, Tianjin, Liaoning, four provinces with negative growth rates, respectively -38.3%, -10.2%, -6.3% and -0.6%, Tibet's real estate investment growth rate of 56.1%, the country's first, to maintain a double-digit growth in the provinces and Ningxia, Jilin and Yunnan.

In addition to Hubei due to the severe impact of the epidemic, the data is different from the usual, Tibet continues to maintain the total amount is not large, but the growth rate of the top of the past trend; Hainan is still in addition to Hubei, real estate investment growth rate of the lowest provinces. The rest of the provinces growth rate fluctuations are smoother, the overall slightly lower than the same period last year.

"Whether real estate will become the grip of economic recovery after the epidemic", this in the early days after the epidemic had been hotly debated topic has been answered.

The recent meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee once again made it clear that "houses are for living, not for speculation". 24 July held a forum on real estate work also put forward, adhere to the real estate as a short-term means of stimulating the economy, adhere to the stabilization of land prices, stable housing prices, stability of expectations, according to the city policy, a city policy, from the actual start, adopt differentiated regulation and control from each place. The actual start, to take differentiated control measures.

Interpretation: real estate is not the main force, and will not be excessively shrink

The reporter noted that the current control policies around the world to maintain a certain degree of differentiation, July tightening of the city, including Shenzhen, Ningbo, Nanjing, Dongguan, etc., and Changchun and other places gradually relax the restriction on the purchase policy.

"Housing without speculation" in the context of how to understand the role of real estate in this round of economic recovery? In the view of Yu Miaojie, real estate will not be the main driving force of China's economic growth, but also will not shrink excessively, but in this round of economic recovery to play a positive role in pulling the economy.

Lian Ping also believes that in recent years, the overall operation of the real estate market is relatively stable, although there are still some structural problems, such as the existence of some local areas of the situation of faster price increases, but from the overall perspective of the market price fluctuations are relatively calm.

Analysis of the trend, Lian Ping believes that, in general, market demand in further recovery, real estate this year to next year is in a short-cycle up phase, coupled with the economic recovery to promote and monetary policy steady loose, the second half of the real estate market recovery can be expected.

Specifically, as the macro policy tone is still in the counter-cyclical adjustment stage, in adherence to the "city-specific policy" tone, property sales are expected to gradually narrow the decline in the second half of the year is expected to achieve positive growth. Real estate investment in the land acquisition growth, financing environment is relatively friendly to continue to rise. Localized policy tightening, home price increases are generally controllable.

Investment: 22 provinces realized positive growth in fixed asset investment

In the first half of the year, 22 provinces realized positive growth in fixed asset investment, an increase of 8 from January to May. From the data, the GDP growth rate of the top two Tibet and Xinjiang, the fixed asset investment growth rate to "double-digit" leading the country.

In the first half of the year, Jilin fixed asset investment growth rate "from negative to positive", an increase of 7.8% year-on-year, an increase of 12.9 percentage points over the same period last year, higher than the country's 10.9 percentage points, ranked fourth in the country. The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods, which reflects the consumption situation, narrowed by 7.3 percentage points compared with the first quarter, but the decline still reached 20%.

Yu Miaojie, vice president of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, judged that the contribution of consumption to economic growth will decline this year, and exports show flat or slow growth, pulling up the role of not strong. In this case, to ensure a more moderate economic growth throughout the year, we must rely on effective investment.

Jia Kang also believes that consumption is indeed the purpose and destination of all economic activities, including investment, but if there is no effective investment, consumption will fall into the "no water, no wood" predicament.

Interpretation: "two new and one heavy" play an important role in stabilizing employment

The structure of investment presents new features, local investment is accelerating the flow of "two new and one heavy" (new infrastructure, new urbanization construction, transportation, water conservancy). The new infrastructure, new urbanization construction, transportation, water conservancy and other major engineering construction) and high-tech industries.

As a new word in this year's government work report, macro policy for the "two new and one heavy" to build up strength. This year, the arrangement of local government special bonds 3.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan over last year, for the expansion of effective investment, focusing on supporting both the promotion of consumption to benefit people's livelihoods and adjusting the structure to increase the strength of the "two new a heavy" construction.

Yu Miaojie believes that the "two new a heavy" will play an important role in driving the development of related industries and increase employment. For example, this year, the transformation of 39,000 new urban old neighborhoods, involving nearly 7 million residents, is expected to pull the investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. At the same time, the transformation of old urban neighborhoods on the upstream and downstream related industries will have a significant pull, providing employment opportunities for these industries.

Edited by Chen Si Proofread by Liu Baoqing