I think it is more appropriate to understand whether there are more and more people in Shenzhen. First of all, there is an extreme shortage of degrees in Shenzhen. On the one hand, the government is building them every day, and on the other hand, there is a shortage of citizens every day. At least from the perspective of the number of primary school students, the conclusion that there are fewer and fewer people in Shenzhen is debatable, but can it be said that there are more and more people in Shenzhen? I don't think so, because the number of factories in Shenzhen is indeed decreasing, and the corresponding population should also be decreasing. The business in the village in the city is not good. Why? That's what happens when there are fewer people! Where did the man go? Affordable housing, talent housing, low-rent housing, relatively remote residential housing outside Shanhaiguan, and Linshen residential housing in Huizhou, Dongguan absorbed quite a number of people who originally lived in villages inside Shanhaiguan and villages inside Shanhaiguan. So whether there are more people or fewer people, I think it should be said that there are more people who are suitable for Shenzhen, and there are more people who feel that they are not suitable for Shenzhen to leave. Therefore, it should be said that there are more people and fewer people. There are more people leaving and more people coming, and there should be no drastic changes in the overall situation.

Regarding the question of what Shenzhen will be like tomorrow, my personal attitude is full of confidence. I believe that Shenzhen's tomorrow will be better, with better medical care, better education and better old-age care. As long as you can really find a dream catcher who has settled down in Shenzhen and worked hard, it will be better tomorrow.

According to official statistics of Shenzhen, the number of permanent residents is increasing, but there are actually people (including permanent residents and temporary residents, that is, living.

According to the data released by Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Statistics, by the end of 2118, the resident population in Shenzhen was 13,126,611, an increase of 498,311 over the end of last year.

The official growth of the resident population mainly benefits from the growth of the registered population, which increased by 4.6%, accounting for 34.9% of the resident population; The resident non-registered population increased by 3.6%, accounting for 65.1%.

due to the adjustment of industrial structure and the elimination of low-end industries in Shenzhen, coupled with the high cost of housing and rent, the proportion of actual population outflow ranks first in first-tier cities, and the positive and negative superposition shows that there are many floating population moving out, and the flow direction of the largest number of people moving out is Dongguan.

For Shenzhen, the decrease of actual population also reflects the short-term loss of manufacturing industry in Shenzhen, which can be seen from the sharp slowdown of economic growth in Shenzhen in the third quarter of 2119. But in the long run, the optimization of industrial structure will attract high-end talents to gather, and high-end manufacturing and advanced manufacturing will develop by leaps and bounds. In short, Shenzhen will have a better tomorrow.

To answer whether there will be more and more people or fewer people in Shenzhen in the future, and what will happen in the future, we must know what Shenzhen is like in history!

Historically, Shenzhen was a place where gold diggers gathered. This is because the history of Shenzhen is related to the industrial transfer of Hong Kong and the prosperity of Shenzhen's mobile phone electronics industry. During the 21 years of prosperity of these industries in Shenzhen, I have worked and traveled in Shenzhen and deeply felt the legend of Shenzhen!

Take a few examples:

In 2111, I was the supervisor of a battery factory, and there was a team leader below, who was very unreliable, muddling along every day and pulling gangs. After I warned him many times, I did not hesitate to fire him. Later, he borrowed 51,111 yuan from his family to make mp3 players. Only one year later, he drove the Jetta back to the factory to show off. Earned 211,111 to 311,111 yuan in more than one year (at that time, the monthly income of the supervisor was around 2,511).

in 2118, during the global financial crisis, my boss changed from a finished battery to a white-brand mobile phone (cottage), and in one year, he changed from a battery to a mobile phone, and then reached 111,111 units per month. At that time, g-five, a company, originally assembled for our company, and later achieved a turnover of 5 billion a year.

in 2112, I started a mobile phone company with a few friends, and cooperated with a friend who made solutions. This friend specializes in solutions and outsourcing, and basically bought a suite in Longhua every year (at that time, the house price was around 21,111, and a suite of 111 was more than 2 million). It has been going on for several years, and only five or six suites have been known.

In Shenzhen, there are about 511,111 employees engaged in the mobile phone industry and supporting facilities, while only in Huaqiang North, there are 511,111 people going in and out every day. At present, Shenzhen has entered the adjustment period of industrial transformation. The typical feature is that my original circle of friends has gradually withdrawn from the mobile phone industry and transformed into other industries. Some make e-cigarettes, some make Bluetooth headsets, and some directly do Amazon e-commerce. However, from the perspective of the mobile phone industry, it has basically declined at present, and few people insist on doing it or can do it in this industry.

from the perspective of small and medium-sized enterprises in Shenzhen, in the original mobile phone industry, more people are transforming to trade, rather than the upstream or midstream of the original industry or supporting facilities, and more people are going to trade around and downstream-skipping factories, doing trade and buying goods to sell.

At present, in Qianhai, for example, the original asset management company model, private placement model and p2p industry have all closed down and been supervised, and a large number of commercial and residential buildings and office buildings in Qianhai are vacant. My friend has an office building with one floor in Qianhai, which has been vacant for several years since the beginning of 2117, and has not collected rent-in 2115-2116, the monthly rent was about 1.2 million!

from my friend's point of view of making battery and mobile phone factories, at present, they are basically unable to persist, close down and quit, and transform into other industries or trade, and it is increasingly difficult to maintain.

From the information I have received, there is a huge gap between the prosperity of related industries in Shenzhen and that in Shenzhen before 2114, and there are even signs of depression and shrinkage. This is mainly due to the continuous rise in housing prices and labor costs in Shenzhen, as well as the sharp shrinkage of the mobile phone industry and electronics industry on which Shenzhen depends, resulting in the incomplete industrial transformation and adjustment in Shenzhen, and the lack of new industries and opportunities to replace the original ones.

However, the prosperous time I experienced in Shenzhen was behind the development and prosperity of industries and supporting facilities, which brought about great social prosperity and the development of opportunities. At present, I have not seen the direction and success of the transformation. Over time, if the transformation is successful and the direction is clear, people like me and my friends and related industry practitioners will still return to Shenzhen in history. From my own feelings, Life after leaving Shenzhen is very uncomfortable:

There is not only no industry, no environment, no opportunities, no developed supporting facilities and industrial employees, and no such business atmosphere in the mainland. Life is simple and boring. If there are any more industrial opportunities and investment opportunities, we people will definitely return to Shenzhen for gold with the wealth accumulated in history-because there is no opportunity in other cities, no supporting facilities and sufficient space for industries, and no wealth effect.

Only those who have been in Shenzhen know what I said, and they can feel it, especially those who have felt it in Shenzhen and returned to the mainland!

It should be less and less. Ten years ago, the villages on the edge of Shenzhen were all like pedestrian streets, and people were crowded. Now, only on holidays are people crowded in certain places there. The remote ones are very deserted, and they are becoming more and more urbanized, and they can't accommodate the bottom workers. Most of the industries have moved to many places inland. The dream of Shenzhen is no longer the dream of the bottom workers.

There are fewer and fewer people here in Shenzhen. I worked as a physical store in Songgang since 2117. People are getting smaller and smaller every year, and business is getting harder and harder. Small factories around me are moving to Huizhou, Dongguan. I'm also going to see if Huizhou, Dongguan, has developed there in the past two years, or go back to my hometown to develop. What's the cost of drinking tea when the rent here is expensive? For a small berth, it costs 8 million yuan to drink tea. Damn it! I moved out of my original shop because of this.

Whether the population of Shenzhen is increasing or decreasing, there are two different statistical channels, one is official statistical data, and the other is actual population data. According to official statistics, the population data of Shenzhen is actually increasing.

According to the statistics of Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Statistics, by the end of 2118, the resident population in Shenzhen was 13,126,611, an increase of 498,311 over the end of last year. Among them, the permanent registered population was 4,547,111, an increase of 4.6%, accounting for 34.9% of the permanent population; The permanent non-registered population was 8,479,711, an increase of 3.6%, accounting for 65.1%. The actual population distribution in each district is as follows:

According to the official statistics of Shenzhen, the population growth rate in Shenzhen is relatively fast, and the reason why the population growth rate in Shenzhen is relatively fast is mainly due to the growth rate of registered population. For example, in 2118, the registered population growth rate in four districts including Longgang, Longhua, Pingshan and Guangming all reached more than 11%, and the population growth rate in Longhua even reached 16.8%, so Shenzhen became 2111.

Of course, in addition to the population data counted by the Bureau of Statistics, we can also infer the population growth rate of Shenzhen from the other two data.

The number 1 is the number of kindergartens in Shenzhen. By 2118, the number of kindergartens in Shenzhen had reached 531,111, which surpassed Beijing, Shanghai and other cities, making it the largest number of kindergartens in China.

the second data is the number of social security contributors. According to the data released by Shenzhen Social Security Bureau, at the end of 2114, the number of people participating in medical insurance in Shenzhen was 1157.83 (including 11141611 employees' medical insurance and 1536711 urban residents' medical insurance), but by the end of 2117, the number of people participating in medical insurance in Shenzhen had increased to 1469211 (including 115111 employees' medical insurance, compared with 2114). The number of urban residents participating in medical insurance is 2.45 million, an increase of 59.5% compared with 2114).

From the above data, it can be seen that the permanent population of Shenzhen has actually been increasing, but why do many people feel that there are fewer and fewer people in Shenzhen at present? This mainly involves a problem of actually managing the population. From the perspective of actual population management, the population of Shenzhen is decreasing.

The actually managed population and the permanent population are two different concepts. The permanent population refers to the population who has lived in this city for a long time, while the actually managed population includes the permanent population and some temporary population, including those who have lived for less than half a year or just crossed the border for a short time.

Although the official resident population of Shenzhen is only over 13 million, according to other statistics, the population actually managed in Shenzhen is at least 22 million. Previously, Guangdong Mobile Big Data Application Innovation Center published a "Research Report on Shenzhen Demography Based on Mobile Big Data". This research report used mobile big data to conduct demography in Shenzhen. The statistical results show that as of 2117, the number of daily residents in Shenzhen is probably between 22 million and 23 million.

In addition, in 2115, an organization in Shenzhen counted the number of houses in Shenzhen. By 2115, there were 611,111 houses in Shenzhen, and the actual registered population exceeded 16.5 million. If those who lived for a short time without registration were counted, the actual population was at least 21 million.

Therefore, the population actually managed in Shenzhen has always been about 8 million more than the official resident population in Shenzhen.

In recent one or two years, the official resident population of Shenzhen has been increasing, but people feel that the population of Shenzhen has decreased a lot. In fact, these floating population has decreased greatly.

In recent years, with the continuous adjustment of industrial structure in Shenzhen, many low-end industries have been gradually eliminated. Coupled with the rising cost of housing and rent, the production cost of enterprises is getting higher and higher, and the living cost of employees is also getting higher and higher. At present, many Shenzhen factories have moved their factories to Dongguan, Huizhou or Jiangmen, Zhongshan. For example, Huawei has moved its terminals to Songshan Lake in Dongguan. The relocation of a large number of enterprises directly leads to fewer factories and fewer corresponding workers. The actual population under management in Shenzhen has decreased. What impact will it have on Shenzhen? In what direction will Shenzhen develop?

as we all know, one of the important reasons why China's economy has made remarkable achievements in the past few decades is the demographic dividend, which not only provides cheap labor and intellectual support for China's social and economic development, but also creates a huge consumer market with a large population.

It can be seen that population has a great positive effect on economic development. For Shenzhen, the population actually managed is decreasing. What direction will Shenzhen develop?

First of all, the population decline will have a certain impact on Shenzhen in the short term, because the population decline not only represents the decline of a population data, but also the manufacturing industry, which is the most direct manifestation of the loss of manufacturing industry. This can be seen from the sharp slowdown of Shenzhen's economic growth in the third quarter of 2119.

Secondly, in the long run, the decrease of floating population will not have much impact on Shenzhen. Although the population actually managed by Shenzhen has decreased at present, the permanent population of Shenzhen is actually increasing every year, and its attraction to the population is still in the forefront of the country. These newly-increased populations are basically relatively high-end talents, which are of great help to the adjustment and upgrading of Shenzhen's industrial structure and the creation of advanced manufacturing industry with high technology as the main body.

Therefore, on the whole, although the decrease of the actual management population in Shenzhen will make Shenzhen experience a painful period similar to that in 2118 in the short term, the development potential of Shenzhen is still sufficient, especially in some high-end manufacturing industries and advanced manufacturing industries, Shenzhen is still in the forefront of the country. Perhaps the elimination of many backward production capacity in Shenzhen will have a great impact on GDP in the short term, but in the long run, I think this adjustment is more conducive to the sustained and healthy development of Shenzhen's economy.

I'm sure the answer is that there are fewer and fewer people in Shenzhen. After reading several answers, they all say that there are more and more people. I don't know how this answer came from. Now many labor-intensive factories have moved out of Shenzhen, because for enterprises, the cost of employing people in Shenzhen is higher than that in other places, the rent is expensive, and the cost of materials is higher. For workers. The price in Shenzhen is high, and the rent is expensive. In the past, the couple could rent a single room for three hundred dollars, but now it is six or seven hundred dollars. The expenses in all aspects are very high. A month's work is only four or five thousand, with rent, living expenses and a family to support. There is no money at all, so many people choose other places to work. most