By 2019, the speed of store replacement accelerated significantly, and the business project began to concentrate, there were only two selling fruits and vegetables at the beginning, as a result, four or five opened by now. If you look carefully, you will find that these stores are basically based on life services, and rarely overlap with online shopping goods. Convenience stores, vegetable and fruit stores, express delivery, beauty, hairdressing, seafood, real estate agents, baking, pediatric massage, community clinics, that's all.
The same scenario is playing out in more and more cities, with brick-and-mortar stores struggling to do business, high rents eroding too much profit, and closures being the only way out for most loss-making stores.
Rising house prices have driven up rents, and brick-and-mortar store operators have no choice but to raise prices in order to make a profit. A clothing cost price of 30 yuan, 50 yuan online package can be sold, but put into the physical store often sells for as much as 80 yuan or even more than 100 yuan. It is because of the physical store prices are high, the cost of raising landlords passed on to consumers, resulting in physical store business is becoming more and more difficult to do. After all, for consumers, nowadays, buying a house, raising children, education, health care, old age, layers of heavy pressure, can save as much as possible, online shopping is also a helpless choice.
Online shopping can be a national price comparison, looking for more cost-effective goods, more convenient, no more than waiting for two or three days, not to mention that there are countless do preferential activities of the goods, more cost-effective.
Vegetables and fruits are just in demand, with high requirements for freshness, precisely because of the constraints of weight and freshness, leaving more than enough space for offline stores. Birthday cakes are equally difficult to transport, which is the basis for the existence of bakery stores. But for other retail goods, online shopping prices are one-third or even more than half lower, consumers will naturally make a rational choice, unless they do not like online shopping consumers.
The number of brick-and-mortar store employees is up to tens of millions, solving a large number of jobs and facilitating national life. Can online shopping more cost-effective can be online shopping, but many things are not suitable for online shopping, brick-and-mortar stores are still essential.
As mentioned earlier, by the impact of online shopping brick-and-mortar store closure will continue, but some of the stores providing services business will not be too affected. As long as the heart to do a good job of service, the formation of a relatively stable customer base, physical stores still have a huge market space. But in any case, for inexperienced people, opening a store in 2019 and the next few years is no longer a good choice, unless there is a unique advantage and competitiveness, the rent alone can easily crush a new store.
But in business, technology is a means to an end. The economy will naturally gravitate toward the lower-cost side, and if the e-commerce business is behind its own demons, it may also play itself to death.
Regardless of how high the brand premium is and how much value is added, cost is always the key to doing business. A big reason why the Japanese were able to rise in the 80s is that the major Japanese companies, to control costs as the key to competitiveness.
E-commerce was able to break through that year, beating the entity industry can not find the north, the biggest advantage is the cost advantage. On the network do not have to pay any rent, do not have to ask too much labor, also do not have to pay those messy fees. Pull the price directly to the level of the wholesale price. How can a brick and mortar store beat that?
The current brick-and-mortar stores are mainly catering, this kind of e-commerce temporarily irreplaceable. I understand that the current annual elimination rate of food and beverage is 80%, and the unprofitable part of the company of e-commerce, also 80%. This coincidence shows that brick-and-mortar stores and e-commerce in their respective positioning, the elimination rate is similar. To put it another way then, the cost of e-commerce to sell circulating goods and the cost of brick and mortar stores to sell services are similar.
Since the cost of e-commerce has been similar to the cost of the entity, then the current can survive the physical store will not disappear. Because 20% of the physical stores still live quite well.
The entity's "demise" boils down to two reasons, high real estate costs, and high profits and low quality. The former is the real estate development to the entity store harm, more and more high real estate costs passed on to the entity store products, competitiveness naturally become low. The latter is the physical store practitioners own demon, I remember reading the university without electricity, go out shopping for clothes, that love to buy the attitude of not buying, 20 yuan cost of clothes dare to call 300 yuan. Ask price not to buy, but also in the back to scold you a meal. E-commerce a mouthful of "pro", not satisfied with no reason for a refund, the entity store a moment to "whole climb".
Now the physical store has a high quality, high service to re-call "users". It is also their own demon themselves swallowed the bitter fruit. However, e-commerce recently also a bit of a sign of the demon, e-commerce platform entry threshold is getting higher and higher. Some cat, some east of the threshold cost has been raised to several hundred thousand (deposit plus payment), with the opening of the physical store is no difference. Bidding is also getting higher and higher, the flow of big more and more strength to buy traffic, flow of small desperately hit the money to mention weight. Why a lot of businessmen and users to get up so much, is because he is still "very cheap". If the physical store can continue to improve themselves, e-commerce in turn continue to make a demon. Then it is likely that in a few years, brick-and-mortar stores are more popular than e-commerce.
I think the physical store will not only not disappear, but will usher in a spring. 1 online shopping is the majority of 80/90 after the consumer groups, of course, can also drive a part of the 60/70 after the age of the majority of people who hold the economic power is still in the hands of the 70/80 after their generation is doomed to accept the impact of this new thing! After a period of time of bonding, if the advantages of online shopping platforms all occupy a clear advantage, online shopping to replace the brick-and-mortar store time will be shortened, and vice versa will become longer. In this wait-and-see state, the physical store to do a good job of traditional services, it will form a good counterattack. Will still occupy a certain proportion of consumption!
2019 physical store stores will not disappear, but the reshuffle and transformation will continue. Influenced by the competition of the same industry, the impact of e-commerce, and the increase in rent prices, the proportion of physical store closures in the future will be relatively high, but another group of high-quality brick-and-mortar stores related to the lives of residents, such as a variety of convenience stores, community stores, etc., will come to the fore.
So why do we say that the physical store will not disappear, but will face the opportunity to transform, will grow stronger and stronger? First of all, the competition between physical stores and e-commerce each has its own characteristics. Physical stores can be intuitive, have experience, such as you go to the store to buy things, can intuitively see the quality of this commodity strengths and weaknesses, and stores in your neighborhood, buy something bad can be immediately returned. And e-commerce is mainly inexpensive, and delivery directly to your home, more convenient, but there is no commodity experience this scene.
In fact, brick-and-mortar stores still have some of their own advantages, which is the e-commerce platform can not be replaced. For example, the community around the vegetable and fruit store, beauty, hairdressing, seafood, dry cleaners, coffee shops, etc. These are e-commerce platform can not be replaced, and now e-commerce on the impact of brick-and-mortar stores is mainly standardized daily commodities. Online can buy, offline can also buy, online to buy the price is cheaper, everyone will choose to buy online.
Moreover, in the past, the low-cost advantage of e-commerce is obvious, and the rent of physical stores is too high, physical stores can not really compete with them, only about the store is the only way out. However, as the scale of the e-commerce platform grows, the threshold of entry is raised, and the cost of traffic is raised. E-commerce hidden "store rent" is also rising year by year, e-commerce in the cost of the advantage is gradually weakened. Therefore, e-commerce now want to completely bump physical stores, is also almost impossible.
Once again, the physical stores in the previous years and e-commerce competition in the losing battle, and now also summarize the experience, ready to fight again. For large shopping malls, to create a variety of scenarios, in order to be more attractive than e-commerce. For example, a young couple to a large shopping mall in the evening to watch a movie, after watching the movie and then go to the restaurant to eat late-night snacks, and then to the fashion store to select clothes, and then to the bookstore in the shopping mall to read for a while, so that shopping malls to create a scene, to extend the customer's stay time as long as possible, which can be more appealing than the monotonous and boring, only to know that the shopping e-commerce.
Finally, it is now the e-commerce rush to lay out the physical stores offline, while the physical stores are often scrambling to get online to do the business of e-commerce. The future of the Internet of Things is not isolated, but the integration of various business scenarios. For example, Ms. Wang bought a set of fashion in the online store, and will give their body size to the e-commerce, but Ms. Wang found that the courier sent the new clothes slightly larger. The e-commerce company can then notify her that she can go to the nearest brick-and-mortar store to exchange a set of clothes with a more suitable size. This way the physical store can make up for the e-commerce's weakness in experience.
Some e-commerce and brick-and-mortar stores will disappear in 2019 due to poor business. But the future between e-commerce and brick-and-mortar stores will no longer be a "you die, I live" relationship, but will be the result of the integration of online and offline scenes together. On the surface, the emergence of e-commerce platforms on the survival of the physical store pressure, in fact, the real cause of the survival of the physical store is still difficult to compete with the industry, as well as high rent. After a big wave of physical stores, either differentiated competition with e-commerce, to survive. Either do O2O mode, the online and offline resources are integrated together, e-commerce and physical stores **** the same development.
In 2019, physical stores will not disappear, and never will. But the speed of store iteration will be faster.
There's no doubting the vitality of brick-and-mortar stores, but the adaptation of retail merchants to the marketplace is not. Because of my job, I moved to live in an urban village last year. There are a lot of small alleys, but the stores change very frequently. The same location, a year past at least 10 stores have been changed, from catering, burgers, barbecue, fruit stores, etc., each type of business in turn, but unfortunately the average survival of less than 2 months immediately withdrawn. Less than 50 meters of the path, next month over the advantage of another scene.
Entity stores certainly have their advantages in the least entity stores based on location advantages, there is a basic flow of customers in. Do not want to online stores, once not advertised, will be completely ignored by consumers. But the traffic passing through the store is the potential consumer opportunities in the physical store. Why can't the business go on? Why is ultimately closed stores to end? This is also related to the physical store's own limitations.
The first day of store opening traffic is often the most, because the opening of the activities often have a big payoff, huge discounts attracted many guests into the store, to be honest, this time has decided this wave of customers whether they will come back to the store. Small storefront businesses tend to operate most of the existence of "petty" phenomenon, is not willing to pay more to serve customers. The first day of business service attitude, service quality, product quality, cost-effective directly determine the consumer's image of you, the second store decision. Some shopkeepers because of customers will be sent to the requirements of the service, you can lose a lot of customers.
But more importantly, the follow-up marketing efforts are close to nothing. The opening day because of the taste and high discounts, customers are willing to come to experience, once the surrounding service competition is big, the business did not follow up with other activities to promote marketing, then customers will be lost faster. Most of the brick-and-mortar experience merchants on the traditional side, the understanding and mastery of new marketing activities is not as good as the e-commerce merchants, for the flow of customers is even worse, the cost will be difficult to recover.
Frankly speaking, the physical store will not disappear, but most of the small businesses will be injured, annexed or expelled by those large merchants, which is the first to be affected by the change in the batch. Entity merchants only themselves to adapt to the market, master the new retail play and operation methods, landing actual, will not face the plight of elimination.
First of all, to answer this question, physical stores, whether in the present or future, will certainly not disappear, although the current Internet has a certain impact on the traditional economy, but the advantages of physical stores is the Internet can never be changed
Entity stores, although they will not disappear, but in this era of consumer upgrading, the traditional entity economy is facing an imminent transformation. In the future, the physical economy will be social and user experience as the premise to serve customers, and store around the community will become the core customer base of each physical store, how to do a good job of store around the community is the first homework of each store.
In this decade, the rapid rise of the Internet let the entity store suffered a lot of blows, but when everyone's attention on the Internet, the Internet's money-making effect will be more and more reduced, the C-terminal market has begun to gradually enter the state of zero-sum game. In the past two years, we should also feel this. The market will always be a few people can make money, which is the same as the nature of stock speculation, when you find a stock is fired, you also want to buy this stock to get a piece of the pie, but the results of their own become a receiver. At the moment everyone is focusing on the Internet, the Internet dividend has long been worn out, at this time the offline store has the possibility of breaking the game.
Entity stores and Internet relations are not dead or alive, but complementary relationship. At present, I think this online combined with offline mode is the best Ma Yun's "box horse fresh". Ma Yun's box horse physical store can be used as a warehouse to store fresh food and can be used as a supermarket for offline consumers to buy goods, and finally in the payment link through the box horse App through. The advantage of doing so is that through the online influence to drive offline consumption, covering the cost of the physical store or even profit, and offline to increase the user's consumption experience, forming a good business closed loop.
In this era, whoever looks further ahead has a better chance of making money, let's cheer together
In 2019, not only will the physical store not disappear, but it will never disappear.
I. Where there is human existence there is an exchange of goods, there is an exchange that will form a market, and the physical store is an important carrier for the exchange of goods, which is an indispensable part of the human living environment.
Two. Physical stores belong to the circulation of goods, is an important part of the tertiary industry in the development of the national economy, the more developed the economy, the higher the degree of development of the tertiary industry, so each country is vigorously develop the tertiary industry, increase the proportion of the tertiary industry in the development of the national economy, but also the development of the country's market economy of the new growth point, so the physical stores not only won't disappear, but also by the state strongly support.
III. The tertiary industry is labor-intensive industry, can absorb a large number of laborers, reduce the burden of national employment, the state has introduced relevant preferential policies to support and encourage employment every year, the physical store for the country to share the worry, solve the problem of employment of many surplus labor, if the physical store disappeared, how many people across the country to be unemployed.
Four. In recent years, on the one hand, the country's economic development transformation and upgrading, economic growth slowdown, indirectly affecting the operation of brick-and-mortar stores, on the other hand, the rapid development of the Internet, e-commerce stands out to the physical stores to form a powerful shockwave, the impact of a number of factors, so that brick-and-mortar stores operating the loss of market competitiveness, although brick-and-mortar stores have entered a trough period of business, but brick-and-mortar stores will not be lost in the space of survival.
Throughout the above, the physical store is not going to disappear, only the development of the physical store has been hindered, due to the large number of physical stores, decentralized operations, their own, failed to form a competitive advantage in the market, so the physical store is also in a period of transition to seek a new mode of development, I believe that the physical store in the near future will certainly re-emerge.
How can entity stores disappear?2018, I believe we all remember the unmanned supermarkets engaged in by Tmall, claiming to pass the last kilometer of online and offline. As a result, the store was quickly withdrawn, and there was no trace of it anymore. Those who follow the investment have lost money. Why?
First, the shopping experience is not good. Unmanned supermarkets must be in the case of your absolute understanding of all the products before you can shop, including product layout and use. Without human help, all you'll be dealing with are cold machines.
The simplest salesperson service, telling you where a particular product is, is also enough to save you a lot of time. The salesperson only needs to tell you that the product works well, and you'll be in the mindset to try it out. Unmanned supermarkets can not bring such an experience, the results can only be defeated.
Second, the high cost. Pay and supervise this whole set of system investment is high, and the late maintenance of the labor cost is not low, far more than the savings of the salesman fee is much higher.
Health cleaning, logistics and transportation, goods on the shelves still can not be less. The only thing missing is a collection link that doesn't do much good.
Unless all kinds of costs are reduced in the future, artificial intelligence can be more efficient, through holographic projection or robotic services, perhaps to bring a better experience. But it's a long way from now.
Third, human nature under the supervision of no one. When people are faced with people will have unconscious limitations, when there is no one to supervise, many people will indulge. For example, there are unmanned supermarkets exploded, some of the amazons lying inside to cool off. In fact, this is a very obvious phenomenon in many supermarkets, but after all, there are people coming and going attendants, more or less convergence. But when the unmanned supermarket is completely unmanned, people's self-restraint may be even lower.
Overall, brick-and-mortar stores will never go away, not only can they drive a lot of employment, but they are a necessary living condition for people.
I'm the smiling Liu Jiajia, and I'm happy to discuss this with you.
I personally feel that not only in 19 years, 29.39.49......99 years physical stores will not disappear, they will just change a form of appearance, and on the contrary, they will meet their "spring".
In recent years, the online shopping market has slowly begun to saturate, the growth rate began to slow down, although the two years of "618" "11.11" sales data year after year growth, and the magnitude is not small. But this does not mean that the online shopping market has completely covered the physical market.
Take our usual examples of our lives
Supermarkets are increasing year by year
In many places, it is obvious to see the construction of large supermarkets such as RT-Mart, Suning Eshop, Wangfujing, etc., which marks the expansion of the physical stores. At the same time can be seen from the life of some large supermarkets every day the flow of people are huge, usually like the evening is the peak of the flow of people.
The rise of "new retail"
A while ago, the term "new retail" was hot on the Internet, and a lot of companies began to do the new retail, such as unmanned supermarkets, the United States Mission, Hungry Mou's model is similar to the beginning of the new retail. With the Century Lianhua, RT-Mart was Alibaba's acquisition, also indicates that Alibaba also want to cut from the "new retail" this piece.