Vietnam is a country in the east of Indochina Peninsula in Southeast Asia. Although its territory is not large, many people have high hopes for it. Since1980s, Vietnam has successively carried out economic and political reforms. Although Vietnam's reform has taken the old road of China, its reform speed is much faster than that of China. For example, the parliamentary system has been implemented in Vietnam for a long time, and all members of parliament are elected by universal suffrage. The life tenure system of civil servants has been abolished, and clerks have to disclose their property. Land has been privatized long ago, and the household registration system has been abolished. Therefore, Japan, South Korea and other countries attach great importance to Vietnam, so they began to transfer many domestic enterprises to Vietnam to make full use of Vietnam's cheap labor. At the beginning of this year, the article in Japan-Beijing Asia Review will continue to advocate Vietnam, believing that the high growth of Vietnam's economy will be a bright spot in the world economy. However, a few months later, Vietnam's economic performance was not as good as expected, even contrary to people's expectations. In the first half of 200210, Vietnam was short-circuited by foreign investors, and lost1600 billion VND, equivalent to about 107 billion RMB. In China, this10 billion may be nothing. After all, China's gdp reached1123.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2002/kloc-0, but Vietnam is different. This10 billion is a huge blow to Vietnam, and this short-selling behavior of foreign capital is far from stopping.
By August 9, 20021year, Vietnam had been sold by them as much as 50 trillion Vietnamese dong, equivalent to shorting RMB1423.5 billion. Although short selling of assets does not mean that Vietnam's economy is not good, we can't just use this data to evaluate Vietnam's economic development level, but Vietnam is really bad now, just by comparing the foreign trade volume of various countries. On the surface, Vietnam's economy grew by 5.64% in the first half of this year. In contrast, the gdp of the United States increased by 12.2%, that of China was 7.99%, and even that of Russia increased by 4.6% in the first half of this year. Some people may say that Vietnam's small land area can achieve a growth rate of 5.56%, which is also a good result. I believe that the future of Vietnam is still worth looking forward to.
However, as mentioned above, Vietnam has the support of the United States, Japan, Europe and other countries. Vietnam, which received so much extra help, only achieved such results in the first half of the year, which really hit the Japanese media in the face. Vietnam's economic growth is not good, and the foreign trade situation is even more worrying. In the first half of this year, Vietnam's foreign trade deficit reached US$ 6,543.804 billion, which means that the sales revenue of export goods is not as high as the cost of imported goods. Frankly speaking, Vietnam has been losing money in the first half of this year. Vietnam is a country that relies on cheap labor and undertakes a large number of low-end industries to make profits, but it does not make money in foreign trade. What is the difference between this and being exploited? The Vietnamese people should be vigilant now. If these conditions are not improved, Turkey is their lesson. Over the years, Turkey has developed with the help of US dollars. On the surface, the national economic data is increasing, but in fact, foreign trade is often in a deficit position. Instead of growth, the economy is regressing, and the currency is frequently devalued, which makes people complain. Although the situation in Vietnam is not as severe as that in Turkey, it will be a matter of time, because Vietnam's current foreign policy is too open, its domestic economy is controlled by foreign capital, and its manufacturing advantages are not prominent. It has to rely on borrowing money to develop its economy, and it is on the same road as Turkey in those days.
So how did Vietnam become like this? As mentioned earlier, Vietnam began to reform from 1980. Objectively speaking, they are indeed more thorough than China's reform, but more thorough reform is not necessarily a good thing, just as Vietnam's political and economic reform is more free and market-oriented than ours. Take the financial industry as an example. As of 20 18, there are more than 60 foreign banks in Vietnam, most of which are controlled by private capital. On the surface, these foreign capitals have brought a standardized financial operation mode to Vietnam and promoted the development of Vietnam's financial industry, but they have also made Vietnam's finance gradually controlled by foreign capitals and private capital. We also need to know that since Vietnam itself is a socialist country, the opening of the financial sector means that foreign investors have the opportunity to short the market. Earlier this year, foreign groups suddenly pushed up the Vietnamese stock market, making the world crazy. In China, on the Internet, people sometimes laugh at the fact that the China stock market is inferior to the Vietnamese stock market. As a result, these foreign capitals suddenly sold collectively, resulting in a net sale of 50 trillion yuan of Vietnamese Dong securities assets. This is why we mentioned the short-term losses in Vietnam before. It is an exaggeration to say that all the wealth created by the Vietnamese people in the first half of this year was exploited by foreign countries.
On the surface, Vietnam's political and economic reform is indeed conducive to short-term economic development, but in the long run, the ultimate beneficiary is the capitalist. If a country becomes a cultural relic of capital, its manufacturing industry will continue to be squeezed, thus expanding the financial industry that capitalists value most. This is the biggest crisis facing Vietnam in the future. In order to control Vietnam, these financial capitalists have let Vietnam directly use the US dollar, which means that there are great risks in the country's finance, because the US dollar can easily harvest the country's wealth. Whenever there is an economic crisis, its currency will plummet, and then a lot of wealth will be directly harvested by the dollar. As a result, Vietnam's losses in the first half of the year are self-evident.
Why is Vietnam's political and economic reform so radical? This is related to the history of Vietnam, which was divided into South Vietnam and North Vietnam. Vietnam was supported by the United States, but was finally defeated by North Vietnam and unified Vietnam. Despite the reunification of Vietnam, the internal division between the north and the south has continued to this day, and the national leaders have been balancing the forces between the north and the south for a long time. For example, if a person from the north is elected president, a person from the south will definitely be elected prime minister, which can also be said to be a constraint on Vietnam's economic development, so many policies beneficial to the country cannot be implemented in practice. Due to the long-term influence of the United States, the southern economy has developed well and yearned for capitalism. Therefore, although Vietnam flaunts itself as a socialist country, it can be said that it is completely capitalist economically. And politically, it is more and more like capitalism. Because the south was controlled by the United States for a long time, Vietnam's pro-American forces were very strong and began to learn from the United States, leading to radical policies, such as land privatization and financial reform. In fact, all this is ultimately just for the better exploitation of financial capital, especially after the privatization of land, Vietnam will definitely regret this decision in the future. Because many countries in the world learn from the United States, they are finally destroyed by pro-American factions supported by the United States, and then financial capitalists make big profits. From this, the future development of Vietnam is not optimistic. Now that the United States has basically controlled Vietnam, if this continues, Vietnam will embark on the road of industrialization, eliminate the manufacturing industry and develop the financial industry. In this way, people's wealth will be harvested by capitalists and foreign forces, the gap between the rich and the poor in China will gradually widen, and people's lives will no longer be happy.
Vietnam suffered heavy losses in the Southeast Asian financial crisis from 65438 to 0998, and suffered heavy losses again in the global financial storm in 2008, and this year's epidemic is no exception. Some people may say that Vietnam's manufacturing industry has developed quite rapidly in recent years. Of course, we must admit this, but until today, Vietnam still relies entirely on foreign-funded enterprises, and Samsung alone contributes more than 25% to the country's gdp. Vietnam's current economic development is too dependent on foreign capital. As Vietnam further opens its market, foreign capital may eventually kidnap the country's economy. Although Vietnam is known as the world factory, it only plays the role of assembly in this process, without establishing a complete industrial chain or cultivating its own brand. To become a world factory, we need a complete industrial chain. Only in this way can you ensure the production efficiency of the enterprise and export to the world quickly.
In addition, what Vietnam is attracted to foreign countries now is that their labor force is very cheap. If they want to continue the current development route, they need to train more cheap labor for the presence of foreign-funded enterprises, and their own labor quality will be lower and lower. But in the future, with the development of science and technology, the demand for workers will be increasing, and workers with low education or poor professional skills will be replaced by machinery. By then, a large number of workers in Vietnam will be unable to find jobs. At present, most industries in Vietnam have been controlled by foreign countries, and the development of domestic local enterprises is not good. After decades of reform and opening up, Vietnam has not cultivated an international brand, and all the money earned has fallen into the hands of foreign capitalists. In order to solve the domestic difficulties, the Vietnamese government can only borrow more dollars to develop, forming a vicious circle.
In addition, as a result of long-term dependence on other countries, the Vietnamese government has largely lost its decision-making ability. Due to the outbreak of the second epidemic, 67,000 new enterprises and more than 70,000 enterprises in Vietnam closed down in the first half of this year. This situation confuses many people. Isn't the first epidemic in Vietnam under control? How did this happen the second time? This is because during the first epidemic, although the epidemic was controlled, it also suffered some economic losses. When the second epidemic spread, Vietnamese officials began to hesitate to think about whether to learn from the experience of the United States and Europe in dealing with the virus, which eventually led to the epidemic getting out of control. Vietnam's economic gate has been controlled by foreign capital. The most striking feature is that Vietnam is gradually abandoning state ownership and turning to private ownership. Their political reform is only to ease the contradiction between the north and the south, but it cannot solve the essential problem. In the end, the contradiction between the two parties will become more and more serious, because economic interests determine the superstructure, so the internal contradictions in Vietnam will be more serious than in the United States in the future, because they still have social problems to be solved urgently. If the above situation does not change, what will happen later? I'm afraid it's hard for them to control themselves. Perhaps the fate of this country has been in the hands of others since the day they opened to foreign investment with a grain of salt.