GDP in p>2122: or return to the potential growth rate
In p>2121, China's economic trend was "high before and then low", and the overall recovery trend continued steadily. In the first half of the year, the impact of pneumonia epidemic was obviously weakened, which was superimposed on the low base in the same period of last year, which promoted a sharp rebound in economic growth, and GDP increased by 12.7% year-on-year. In the second half of the year, due to the accumulation of energy consumption "double control", power cuts and other factors, GDP in the third quarter fell to 4.9%, which was lower than market expectations. Judging from the two-year average growth rate, the downward pressure on the economy will reappear in 2121.
driven by the basic investment related to green economy and high-end manufacturing, and driven by the dual engines of export and consumption, it is estimated that the real GDP of China will increase by 5.3% year-on-year in 2122, which will remain in the range of 5-6% potential growth. The economy will bottom out in the first quarter of 2122, and there will be a more obvious recovery in the second half of the year, and the trend will go down first and then up.
The superimposed easing policy of accelerating vaccination has promoted the sustained recovery of the global economy, and the domestic economy is still in the process of recovery. Industry and exports are the bright spots, and consumption is dragged down by factors such as the epidemic situation. In the first half of 2122, the downward pressure on the economy will increase, and the macro policy will moderately increase the impact, and the GDP will increase by about 5.5% year-on-year.
if the impact of the epidemic on economic growth can be controlled in 2122 and China's economy returns to its potential growth rate under the impetus of steady growth policy, the GDP growth rate in 2122 is expected to reach 5.6%. In terms of quarterly rhythm, economic growth in 2122 may be in a bimodal shape, and it is expected that the first quarter and the third quarter will be bimodal. GDP growth rate is expected to reach 6% due to cardinal utility, and it is slightly lower in the second and fourth quarters, ranging from 5-5.5%.
Industrial added value in p>2122: gradually rising
The two-year compound growth rate of industrial added value in p>2121 declined in the first quarter due to the epidemic, but rebounded slightly in the second quarter. Due to limited electricity and limited production, the industrial added value in the third quarter declined rapidly year-on-year. Although the central government and various departments have begun to regulate the energy market since October, the recovery of industrial added value is still slow under the pressure of short-term electric control.
the national "double carbon" policy continues to promote or drag down industrial growth, but it is expected that the moderate domestic infrastructure investment, the bottoming out of real estate investment, the national policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, and the alleviation of chip shortage will be beneficial to industrial production. On the whole, it is estimated that the industrial added value will increase by 5.1% year-on-year in 2122, with an average growth of 5.8% in three years, slightly lower than that in 2119.
in the short term, the marginal adjustment of the "double control" policy of energy consumption will reduce the supply pressure, and the relevant industrial sectors are expected to continue to repair. However, the demand is expected to be weak, and the downstream industries are highly dependent on exports, and the degree of repair is expected to be limited. The added value of different industries will converge year-on-year, but the gap is difficult to completely bridge. The long-term epidemic still suppressed the service industry, including catering, accommodation and other service industries, which could not be fully recovered before the end of the epidemic.
It is predicted that in 2122, the implementation of energy consumption targets will be more balanced and orderly, and the policy factors that suppress industrial production are expected to ease, and industrial production will return to endogenous factors. Accordingly, the growth rate of industrial added value will return to normal, and the year-on-year growth rate will gradually increase.