At the turn of the third and fourth quarters, most institutions predicted that the year-on-year GDP growth rate in the third quarter would fall within the range of 5.0-5.7%, and Wind unanimously expected 5.2%. On the other hand, there are frequent signs of slowing economic recovery in the third quarter, and there are contradictions between them. We are not so optimistic about predicting the economic situation in the third quarter by measuring the GDP of various industries respectively: the overall GDP growth rate in the country is about 4.9%, which is lower than the lowest value predicted by various institutions, so we should beware of the expected difference and pessimism caused by the data being released less than expected.
At present, economic production activities are still in the recovery range, but the high-speed recovery period of production basically ended in September, and it is predicted that the recovery rate of production in the fourth quarter will be further weakened than that in the third quarter. At the same time, domestic policies are gradually returning to normalization, and it is normal for the economy as a whole to return to the potential output level.
In terms of price, the current consumer price has fallen back to a reasonable range, so there is no need to worry about inflationary pressure in the short term. Although the PPI rebound is suspended, it is a short-term fluctuation and is still in the upward cycle. In the long run, the global economy will continue to repair and the domestic economy will continue to improve. The PPI trend will continue to be maintained under the basic demand.
Topic: Economic growth in the third quarter may be lower than expected.
In March and July of this year, Munger used the high-frequency data of the industry to forecast GDP by industry. The year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the first and second quarters is about -7% and 3. 15% respectively, which is very consistent with the actual results and confirms the forecasting effect of this method. Now that we have the high-frequency data of the third quarter, we continue to use this method to predict the GDP growth rate in the third quarter and discuss the economic situation in the third quarter.
The following table summarizes our calculation results of GDP of various industries. Judging from the results, the economic situation in the third quarter is not so optimistic: the predicted growth rate of the national overall GDP is about 4.9%, which is lower than the lowest value predicted by various institutions. We should be alert to the expected differences and pessimism caused by the data release being less than expected. From the perspective of industry, the economy in the third quarter showed two major characteristics:
1. Various industries generally continue to pick up.
Among the 1 1 industries announced by the Bureau of Statistics, the growth rates of nine industries, including industry, wholesale and retail, and real estate, continued to rise, laying the foundation for the overall economic recovery. Among them, PMI production reached 54 in September, maintaining a high level of prosperity; In August, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value also reached 5.6%, indicating that the industrial sector continued to improve, so we judged that the industrial growth rate rose from 4. 1% in the second quarter to about 5.6%. However, recent high-frequency data show that since September, the coal consumption of power generation in Zhejiang has decreased compared with that in August, and it is not excluded that the recent industrial production recovery trend has slowed down.
In the wholesale, retail and transportation industries, the total retail sales of social consumer goods of enterprises above designated size has rebounded to 4.4% in August. High-frequency data show that car sales in September increased by about 23% year-on-year, indicating that the rebound in consumption led to wholesale and retail. In August, the growth rate of total freight volume in the country also reached 4.8%, and the recovery speed was very fast. Therefore, we judge that the growth rate of wholesale and retail industry has increased from 1.2% in the second quarter to about 5.0%, and the growth rate of transportation, warehousing and postal industry has increased from 1.7% in the second quarter to about 5.9%.
After the epidemic situation gradually slowed down and people's lives gradually returned to normal, the service industry generally picked up. Overall, the PMI index of service industry rose from 52.6 in the middle of the year to 54.2 in the third quarter, accelerating the recovery. Among them, although the catering industry is still affected by the epidemic, it recovered quickly in the third quarter from the perspective of catering income of catering enterprises above designated size. Although the sales of commercial housing have not completely stepped out of the negative growth range after a round of blows, the recovery speed is very fast, and real estate developers are also more active. It is estimated that the real estate industry index will reach about 6.8% in the third quarter.
2. The growth rate of the construction industry declined.
In the second quarter, the recovery momentum of the construction industry and the financial industry was strong, and the growth rate of the real estate industry was also higher than the average, thanks to the loose policies, which boosted the overall economic growth rate. However, since the third quarter, on the one hand, affected by floods, the construction industry has been delayed, on the other hand, the increase of policy funds in the second half of the year is limited, resulting in the overall high level of construction activities. This can also be verified from the data. The average PMI of the construction industry in the third quarter was 60.3, slightly higher than 60. 1 in the second quarter. High-frequency data of construction steel output such as thread shows a downward trend from a high level. Therefore, we judge that the growth rate of the construction industry in the third quarter dropped slightly compared with the second quarter, reaching about 7%.
Overseas risks in the fourth quarter cannot be ignored.
With the improvement of economic indicators, monetary policy was marginally tightened in the second quarter, and recently "normal monetary policy was implemented as long as possible". The domestic fundamental and policy risks are relatively small. With the increasing variety of vaccines, monitoring and treatment methods, the epidemic risk can also be controlled. Therefore, overseas risks are mainly faced in the fourth quarter.
Since August, the epidemic situation in some European countries has formed a "second rise" trend. At the same time, the epidemic in the United States has once again bottomed out. On the other hand, the American election has also added many variables to the world. Will the recurrence of overseas epidemics affect the progress of its economic recovery? If Biden wins the vote, will it force Trump to take some desperate measures? These uncertainties will continue to ferment in the fourth quarter, which requires us to keep close observation and high vigilance.
Production recovery function declines.
In September, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly from the previous value of 5 1.0 to 5 1.5, which is still in the expansion range. In terms of sub-items, the production index rebounded slightly from 53.5 last month to 54. However, from the high-frequency data, the operating rate of blast furnace in September continued to drop from about 7 1% at the beginning of the month to 68% at the end of the month, and the daily average coal consumption and steel output also showed similar results. In terms of industries, compared with August, the industries with rapid expansion of prosperity are concentrated in automobile manufacturing, agricultural and sideline food, petroleum processing, chemical fiber and rubber and plastic products manufacturing, while other industries with high prosperity are electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, computer communication electronic equipment and instrumentation manufacturing, and non-metallic mineral products manufacturing. These industries are generally biased towards the middle and lower reaches of manufacturing, and the difference in prosperity between upstream and downstream industries may explain the contradiction between high-frequency data and PMI.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the PMI of large enterprises is 52.5, which continues to strengthen compared with August; The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 50.7, down 0.9 from August; The PMI of small enterprises was 50. 1, which was 2.4 percentage points higher than that in August and returned to the boom zone. In September, Caixin PMI and BCI index fluctuated slightly downward. Although it deviates from the official PMI data in the short term, the high probability is caused by the sampling area, and the whole shows some complexity and the characteristics of wandering in this interval.
Demand-external demand is stable and domestic demand is restored.
1. consumption-still not fully recovered.
From the aspects of food, clothing, housing and transportation, residents' consumption performance is different. During the National Day holiday, the data of tourism and accommodation industry recovered to the level of 70-80% in the same period last year, indicating that domestic demand has not fully recovered. The automobile market continued to improve, and sales further picked up. According to the data released by the Federation, in September, China's automobile production and sales were 2.524 million and 2.565 million respectively, up by 14. 1% and 12.8% respectively. The upward trend of real estate sales has weakened. In September, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities continued to rise to 10.77%, but the increase rate was 5.2% lower than that in August. The movie box office revenue in September was 2.2 billion, lower than that in August. The national box office revenue of the National Day file was 3.95 billion yuan, the second highest in history. Although this is mainly due to the concentrated outbreak after long-term demand suppression, it also reflects the residents' urgent consumption will and inertia of consumption habits.
2. Investment-driven real estate is flat as a whole.
On September 30, the transaction area of commercial housing in large and medium-sized cities increased by 10.8% compared with the same period of last year, and the growth rate slowed down, but it still maintained double-digit growth. The enthusiasm of real estate developers for land acquisition was basically the same as that in August, but in the first ten days of June 10, affected by two holidays, the land acquisition area dropped a lot. Land purchase area and commercial housing sales area are synchronous indicators of new construction and real estate investment, so it can be reflected that the growth rate of real estate investment in September decreased slightly compared with that in August, but it will still maintain a high level. This can also be confirmed by the prices of rebar and cement.
The PMI index of the construction industry in September was 60.2, which was the same as that in August, and the activity expectation was raised to 67.8. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of commercial vehicles in September were 479,000 and 477,000 respectively, up by 12.7% and 10.6% respectively. It increased by 39% and 40.3% respectively year-on-year, still maintaining a very high growth rate, so overall, the intensity of infrastructure investment in September was basically the same as that of last month. Looking forward to the future, the decline in the supply of special bonds, the upward shift of the risk-free interest rate center, and the cold climate may restrict the intensity of infrastructure investment. However, considering that some local governments have recently adjusted the use of special bonds, the pace of short-term financial investment is expected to accelerate. It is expected that the growth center of infrastructure investment may have a slight upward opportunity in the fourth quarter.
3. Export-stable structure and sustained high growth.
Compared with the same period of last year, exports in September remained at a high level of around 65,438+00%. From the domestic high-frequency data, the export container freight index continues to rise, and the China import dry bulk freight index (CDFI) and Baltic dry bulk freight index (BDI) are also the same as the previous period. Among them, the contribution of epidemic prevention products has gradually declined, while the export of other products has made up for this gap. Excluding textiles (mainly masks) and medical instruments, the export growth rate reached 8.6%, reflecting the changes in demand structure. However, the recovery of major economies in September was different. Judging from the prosperity indicators, the PMI of Japan and Europe continued to rise, while the PMI of the United States declined slightly. The second outbreak of overseas epidemic will also have a certain impact on overseas demand, thus affecting exports.
Policy-Return to Normalization
In September, M2 increased by 10.9% year-on-year, RMB loans increased by10.9 trillion, and social financing reached 3.48 trillion, all of which were at the high level expected by the market. The new credit is mainly concentrated in the medium and long-term loans of enterprises and residents, indicating that the current investment demand and housing mortgage demand are obviously strong. Recently, Yi Gang, the governor of the central bank, said that "normal monetary policy should be implemented as long as possible", which has its economic basis. First, the economy has gradually recovered to near the potential output level, and there is no need for too loose monetary conditions; Secondly, prices have been in a reasonable range recently. In addition, although the RMB exchange rate has continued to rise recently, the export growth rate has also remained at a high level, and there is no strong motivation to stabilize the exchange rate to promote exports. Therefore, as the economy continues to improve in the fourth quarter, monetary policy will gradually return to normalization.
Price-price environment is stable.
1. CPI-regression1times
In September, CPI recorded 1.7% year-on-year, and continued to decline. The core CPI recorded 0.5%, which was the same as last month. Among them, the growth rate of food prices continued to decline. High-frequency data showed that the average retail price of pork in 36 cities rose to more than 3 1.34 yuan/kg, and the vegetable price index was basically the same as last month. Egg prices rebounded slightly, up 1.9 1% from the previous month. The prices of services rose slightly, such as movie tickets, educational services and clothing, reflecting the further repair of consumption and service industries.
2. PPI-short-term fluctuations do not change the upward trend.
In September, PPI recorded -2. 1% for all industrial products, with a slight decrease, mainly because the means of subsistence dropped from 0.6% in August to -0. 1% in September, while the means of production recorded -2.8%, which continued to improve compared with last month, mainly due to the fluctuation of international oil prices, and the prices of oil-related industries turned from rising to falling. Judging from the high-frequency data, the price index of industrial products in South China turned from rising to falling in September, mainly because the prices of industrial raw materials such as oil and steel fell, while the prices of non-metallic and chemical raw materials such as coal and cement were increasing.