2117 application simulation problem-grain and oil price increase
matters needing attention
1. This paper consists of two parts: given information and answering requirements. The examination time limit is 151 minutes. Among them, the reference time limit for reading the given materials is 41 minutes, and the reference time limit for answering questions is 111 minutes. Out of 111.
2. Please fill in your name, application department and admission ticket number in the designated position on the answer sheet.
Candidates should answer in the position specified on the answer sheet. Those who fail to answer in the specified position will not score.
3. When the invigilator announces the end of the exam, candidates should immediately stop answering, leave the test paper, answer sheet and draft paper on the table, and leave only after the invigilator allows them to leave.
It is forbidden to fold the answer sheet
Given information
Material 1:
Beijing: In October, the prices of rice, noodles, vegetables and staple and non-staple foods in Beijing all rose to varying degrees: the price of edible oil rose by 11%, and the price of flour rose by more than 11%. According to the Beijing Grain Bureau, although the price of grain and oil has risen, the supply of flour in the Beijing market is sufficient, and the purchase and sales are normal.
Chengdu: Since mid-October, the market price of grain and oil in Chengdu, Sichuan Province has gradually increased, and the prices of some major grain and oil varieties have increased significantly, especially vegetable oil, wheat and corn. In this regard, the market supply in this city is relatively normal, and there is no phenomenon of centralized purchase of grain and oil in large quantities. The Municipal Grain Bureau requires grain departments at all levels to pay close attention to market dynamics.
Shandong: The price of wheat has increased greatly. The selling price of wheat for farmers in Shandong Province rose from less than 1.4 yuan per kilogram in September to around 1.6 yuan at present, with an increase of over 11%. According to the analysis of the price control department of Shandong Provincial Price Bureau, although the current food price has risen a lot, it is still at a normal level.
Guangdong: The prices of some grains such as flour and corn continued to rise slightly. According to the market quotation of Guangzhou Vegetable Basket Quotation Center, the standard powder rose from 2.21 yuan per kilogram on October 5th to 2.31 yuan on February 3rd.
material 2:
the sharp increase in the prices of cereals, oils and other foods led to a sudden change in CPI (the general level of consumer prices in China) in October. In October, the national food price rose by 3.7%, higher than the 2.2% in October, and food is the first component of China's CPI, with a weight ratio as high as 33%.
In food, the price increase of grain, oil, meat and poultry and its products, fresh eggs, etc. is several times that of October, among which the price of grain increased by 4.7% in October; Oils and fats rose by 6.2%, meat and poultry and their products by 7.6%, fresh eggs by 11.7% and aquatic products by 2.7%. Previously, the rise in grain and oil prices has been reflected in the prices of rice, wheat and edible oil in supermarkets and wholesale markets around Beijing. Under the influence of food prices, the price increases of other consumer goods such as cigarettes, wine and traditional Chinese medicine have also increased.
the accelerated changes in the costs and benefits of many industries caused by the rise in grain and oil prices are rapidly transmitting to the whole industrial chain, especially the downstream industries. "The food processing industry, biochemical industry and other industries have been affected, and it is expected to be reflected in the recent stock market." Zhao Jinhou, a researcher in Shen Yin Wanguo Food Industry, told the shanghai securities news reporter.
material 3:
on February 5th, affected by the rising price of grain and oil, the agricultural sector almost became red. Typical stocks, such as Jinjian Rice (611127), which ranks in the top five, and Beidahuang (611598), which focuses on corn deep processing, etc. Among them, Jinjian rice industry rose by 11.14% and Beidahuang rose by 8.82%-the price of agricultural products that "took the lead and moved the whole body" became a hot topic in the stock market.
"On the surface, the price increase is due to the temporary shortage of grain and oil reserves increased by administrative means to protect farmers' income. But in essence, the undervaluation of agricultural products is also one of the internal reasons for this round of rise. Therefore, the price increase of related consumer goods caused by this round of grain and oil price increase will not immediately turn due to seasonal reasons or administrative grain' taking back'. " Lin Rong, a senior analyst in Shanghai capital market, said.
Some agricultural stocks rose yesterday
Code company name rose
I don't want anything else, I just want everyone to reply, and the reply will be motivated. Hard work can be affirmed
611598 Great Northern Wilderness 8.82%
611127 Jinjian Rice Industry 11.14%
611311 Ronghua Industry 2.67%
611354 Dunhuang Seed Industry 4.11%
111998 Longping Hi-Tech 3.99%
112141. 8%
111861 Shunxin Agriculture 3.95%
Material 3:
"Food prices and oil prices have gone up again", which is a topic that people in big cities often discuss when they meet recently. However, due to the continuous improvement of residents' income level in recent years and the large salary increase of a large number of citizens this year, the expenditure on food consumption has become smaller and smaller in the total expenditure of most citizens, and the negative impact of this food price increase is not great. Ms. Wang, a citizen, said that Lu Hua cooking oil series has been used in her family. The price of Lu Hua peanut blended oil bought 11 days ago was around 59.8 yuan, and now it has increased by 11 yuan. "The price increase is certainly not a good thing for our consumers, but now we don't spend a lot of money on eating every month, and we can afford it." Ms. Wang said. According to the investigation in several supermarkets' grain and oil sales offices, although the price has increased, most citizens are calm and there is no snapping up.
In several supermarkets in Xinmin Road and Qingnian Road, Urumqi, after the price of grain and oil products increased, a bag of Tianshan brand flour with the wholesale price of 25 yuan (11 kg) was sold at 23.8 yuan in the supermarket, while a bag of rice with the wholesale price of 38 yuan (11 kg) was sold only in 35 yuan to 37 yuan. The wholesale price is 41 yuan (5 liters) soybean blended oil, and only 35 yuan is sold in the supermarket. According to a supplier, the reason why some supermarkets sell grain and oil products at prices lower than the wholesale price is mainly to attract consumers, thus driving the consumption of other commodities. However, what the reporter saw in the supermarket was that the promotion practice of the supermarket did not attract many consumers. In a supermarket on Qingnian Road, only one person bought two bags of 11 kilograms of flour in ten minutes. The consumer said that she came to buy flour not because of the price increase of flour, but because it was more cost-effective for the supermarket to promote sales. "The rising price is acceptable now, so there is no need to buy so much." She said.
Ma Changwang, deputy director of the Beijing Grain Bureau in charge of the market, said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency: "Overall, the supply of flour in the Beijing market is sufficient, the consumption psychology of residents is stable, and the purchase and sales are normal."
As it is not a big province of flour consumption, the Guangdong market reacted calmly to the price increase of flour. The Guangdong Provincial Price Bureau said that it will pay close attention to the rise of food prices. If the price fluctuation is unusually significant and lasts for a long time, the state will release some grain from the grain depot to adjust the price and stabilize the market. Therefore, the public need not panic and snap up.
according to dong Jinwen, director of the price control department of Shandong provincial price bureau, the food price in Shandong province was not too high in the previous period, although it has risen a lot, it is still at a normal level.
Lan Haitao, an associate researcher at the Institute of Industrial Economics and Technical Economics of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that the current food price is in the normal range. Since the beginning of this year, the cost of agricultural means of production has risen, while the price of grain is at a low level, which is easy to dampen farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain. The current increase in food prices truly reflects farmers' cost of growing grain and brings food prices back to a reasonable range. This year's grain inventory is the same as last year, and there is no risk of food shortage, so there is no saying that food prices will be stabilized in the next step.
material 4:
since the fluctuation of grain market in late 2113 and early 2114, the state has taken a series of measures to promote grain production, and domestic grain production has been bumper year after year. This round of grain and oil price increase is not due to the reduction of grain production. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in 2114, the grain harvest was bumper, and the total grain output reached 469.5 billion kilograms, up 9% year-on-year, reversing the five-year decline. In 2115, the grain output was 484 billion kilograms, an increase of 3.1%; In the first three quarters of 2116, grain production achieved another good harvest, and the total output of summer grain was 113.8 billion kilograms, an increase of 7%.
due to the bumper harvest of wheat in China for three consecutive years, in order to protect farmers' interests and implement the central government's policy of benefiting farmers, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued the Notice on the Implementation Plan for the Minimum Purchase Price of Wheat in 2116 in June this year, requiring government departments at all levels to fully support and cooperate with China National Grain Storage Corporation to support the market, and a total of nearly 42 million tons of wheat were purchased, which was called "temporary storage grain". According to the latest issue of Caijing magazine published on February 11, because the grain purchased by China Grain Storage Company was supported by the Agricultural Development Bank loan, and the "minimum purchase price" was higher than the market grain price at the beginning of this year, farmers sold grain enthusiastically, and the local government praised the "market-supporting purchase", the top management decided not to limit the total amount of wheat purchased at the lowest price, but to "open the purchase" by China Grain Storage Company. As a result, the wheat purchased by China Grain Reserve accounts for more than 41% of the total wheat output this year.
Yin Daqing, general manager of Yuquan Road Grain and Oil Wholesale Market in Jinxiu, Beijing, believes that the price increase of edible oil is mainly affected by the price increase of genetically modified soybeans (2825,-29,-1.12%) in the international futures market. From the production area, due to the continuous increase in the purchase price of wheat, soybeans and other crops, farmers' psychological reluctance to sell rice has been significantly enhanced, which has led to the tight purchase of rice and the increase in the purchase price.
since the state started the implementation plan of the minimum purchase price of wheat on June 1, the domestic purchase price of wheat has stopped falling and showed a steady and slightly rising trend, but it is still lower than the same period of last year. It is understood that this year, the six provinces that implemented the national market-supporting purchase policy have purchased a total of 41.218 million tons of wheat with the lowest price.
The relevant person in charge of Guangdong Price Information Monitoring Center pointed out that the main reason for the increase in flour prices is that this year, except for the obvious increase in wheat production in China, other countries have generally reduced production, and the higher international wheat price will inevitably lead to the increase in domestic wheat prices; Affected by the domestic policy of protecting farmers' interests, the purchase price of wheat this year was higher than the market expectation, which objectively raised the market situation of wheat, and many farmers began to hesitate to sell it, which led to insufficient supply of flour processing enterprises and pushed up the price of wheat.
As for the main reason for the large increase in the price of corn in the Guangdong market, the person in charge of the Guangdong Price Information Monitoring Center said that since the international crude oil price rose, corn extract was used as a fuel substitute, which led to the rising price of corn.
In the futures market, the domestic wheat futures price has risen sharply recently. In the international futures market, corn futures prices have also hit a high point in the past 11 years. From the trend of CPI, as of October, food prices showed a steady upward trend, rising by 3.7% year-on-year, but higher than the overall CPI increase.
Lan Haitao accepts that the increase in food prices since winter is a recovery, and there is no direct government intervention. Since the price of wheat fluctuated and fell in October after the harvest of autumn grain, the current price recovery increase objectively protected the interests of farmers. The increase in soybean and edible oil prices is due to the continuation of the low price trend in the previous four or five months, and it is also a recovery increase.
Qi Jingmei, an economist in the Economic Forecasting Department of the State Information Center, explained in an interview that the sudden surge in grain and oil prices was mainly affected by the increase in domestic purchase prices and the reduction in production in the international market. Among them, the state raised the purchase price of grain in various places, which led farmers to be optimistic about the next grain price and reluctant to sell it, and the balance between supply and demand was destroyed, and the price would further rise. Qi Jingmei predicts that China's CPI will continue this upward trend in February, because the impact of rising food prices is large, and it is expected that the CPI increase will remain at around 1.8% in February.
Material 5:
After seven consecutive years without severe weather that could affect the global agricultural product harvest, unusually hot weather and drought hit together this year, resulting in different degrees of wheat production reduction in major wheat producing countries in the world. The US Department of Agriculture predicted in October that in 2116-2117, the global wheat production will reach 587 million tons, and the consumption will reach 615 million tons. The ending inventory will drop from 47 million tons in 2115-2116 to 19 million tons. The reduction of wheat production led to the rise of wheat futures prices in Chicago in the United States from the middle and late September, and led to the rise of corn prices.
The rice stock is also not optimistic. It is estimated that the global ending stock will drop to 61.95 million tons in 2116-2117, and the ratio of storage to consumption will be 14.64%, which is lower than the warning line of FAO of 18%.
The global stocks of soybeans are large, but influenced by wheat, corn and rice, they are also chasing up. These factors have affected China's edible oil market. In particular, two-thirds of China's soybean consumption depends on imports. As soon as the international market rises in price, the domestic soybean oil price also rises.
At the same time, the bio-energy boom stimulated by energy shortage, corn, as the most important raw material of fuel ethanol, has been endowed with the attribute of new energy, and its demand is also increasing substantially.
Material 6:
Zhang Chunmin, a postdoctoral fellow at the Institute of Agricultural Economics of China Academy of Agricultural Sciences, believes that the apparent reason is that the price of genetically modified soybeans has risen due to the impact of price fluctuations in the international futures market, resulting in an increase in the cost of edible oil; Affected by higher international wheat prices, domestic wheat prices have risen accordingly; And after the international crude oil price rises, corn extract is used as a fuel substitute, which leads to the increase of corn price. The internal reason for the price increase of some crops lies in the influence of domestic policies to protect farmers' interests. This year, the purchase price of wheat was higher than market expectations, and many farmers began to hesitate to sell it, resulting in short-term supply constraints, resulting in insufficient supply of flour processing enterprises and rising wheat prices. Under normal circumstances, there are two kinds of price increases: one is to raise prices when the price is normal, resulting in high prices; The other is to raise the price when the price is low and return to the normal price. Zhang Chunmin believes that this grain and oil price increase belongs to the latter and is a "recovery increase". Several wage increases in China have caused the cost of industrial products to rise correspondingly, and the price increase of industrial products will undoubtedly increase the cost of agricultural products. However, the market price of agricultural products has been lower than the actual cost for a long time. Since wages have risen and prices have risen, the corresponding price increase of grain and oil is normal, which can also help farmers increase their income. Zhang Chunmin believes that although the price increase is relatively large, there is limited room for food prices to continue to rise and it will not last.
material 6:
the general office of the State Council requires all regions and relevant departments to clarify their responsibilities, cooperate closely, take effective measures, and earnestly do a good job in grain and oil supply and market stability.
The circular calls for strengthening market monitoring, paying close attention to the changes of supply and demand and prices in the grain and oil market, timely and accurately reflecting the purchase, sale, inventory and price trends of important foods such as grain, oil, meat, eggs and milk, and scientifically analyzing and judging the price trends. Find the problems with trends and signs, and take timely measures.
Grasp the control objectives, make overall planning, rationally arrange the storage layout of state-owned grain, and timely adjust the quantity of grain allocation and transportation. According to the market demand, we should grasp the rhythm of open auction sales of national stored grain, not only to ensure supply.