The high land price is heating up. In the first half of 2118, under the guidance of the policy of "accelerating the establishment of a housing system with multi-subject supply, multi-channel guarantee and simultaneous rent and purchase" issued by the central government, major cities implemented and gradually improved various control policies. With the standardization of the major real estate markets, optimizing the proportion of structural supply and homestead supply, the real estate markets in major provinces and cities across the country have gradually returned to rationality.
just yesterday, on the morning of August 7th, three plots of land were sold in Nanjing, with a total area of over 167,111 square meters, and the total starting price reached 3.8 billion yuan. The final land price for the sold floor was lower than the highest land price in the sector, among which the Jiangpu plot taken by Longhu Real Estate decreased by 3,111 yuan/square meter compared with the peak land price in the same region. At the same time, the G39 and G41 plots of Jiangning Riverside originally planned to be sold on the same day were terminated for some reason.
Yan Li, director of data research and development of China Appraisal Association, pointed out that under the background of stricter local auction market policies, it is expected that the homestead market will continue to decline in the second half of the year, and the premium rate will generally remain at a low level.
under the background of the gradual cooling of the national real estate market, the future profit space of developers will be further compressed.
Risks of real estate development The eight cities that China Appraisal Association considers to have land bubbles include Shenyang, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Hefei, Chengdu, Nanjing, Xiamen and Hangzhou. This includes first-tier cities, quasi-first-tier cities or second-tier cities in the rising period.
Take Shenyang as an example. In the first half of the year, as a second-tier city with relatively loose regulation, the population inflow and shed reform policies made the demand for housing excessively released. In the first half of the year, the price of new commercial housing in Shenyang increased by over 11% year-on-year, which indirectly affected the land market. The enthusiasm of developers for land acquisition surged, which intensified the competition in the local land auction market. Up to now, the average floor price of residential land in Shenyang reached 5,637.5 yuan/m2, with an average premium rate of 51%, which was higher than that of the same period At the same time, however, the existing economic strength in Shenyang can't support the continuous rise of housing prices, and the excessive release of housing demand consumes a considerable degree of purchasing power, so the upward trend of Shenyang property market lacks sustainable support in the future.
The tightening policy indirectly affects the enthusiasm of the land market, and the land bubble crowding out effect is obvious. At present, the homestead market in first-tier cities mainly provides "leased land" and policy housing land. However, the homestead market in key second-tier cities shows a steady trend of volume increase and price increase. Under the heavy control of the local auction market, such as "limiting land price, competing for construction and competing for self-sufficiency", the premium rate of homestead is temporarily maintained in a more reasonable range.
With the tightening of the land auction policy, the competition and differentiation in the land market have intensified, and the homestead market in first-tier cities is still in a downturn; Although some urban plots in the second and third tiers are fiercely competitive, the profitability of homesteads in popular second-tier cities has also dropped significantly.
It is worth noting that, due to the difficulty in acquiring land in first-tier cities and the strict restrictions on the local auction market, some housing enterprises have gradually tilted their land acquisition strategies to third-and fourth-tier cities, especially in the first half of the year. However, the population adsorption capacity of third-and fourth-tier cities is weak, and the economic support for housing prices is low, and housing prices lack the motivation to continue to rise. It is expected that a large number of stocks will not be absorbed in the next two or three years, and the risk of developers' homestead development will increase day by day.
judging from the real estate enterprises that have published the interim report this year, the risks in the layout of third-and fourth-tier cities in the past have already begun to appear. Take Zhongnan Construction as an example. In the first half of 2118, Zhongnan Construction achieved contract sales of 65.25 billion yuan, up 44% year-on-year. The average selling price is 12539 yuan/square meter, which is slightly lower than the average selling price of last year. However, the net profit of Zhongnan Construction is only 6.7%, which is almost double the net profit of Xuhui Holdings in the first half of 2118, which is 13.3%. Zhongnan Construction explained to the outside world that the gross profit margin of some real estate settlement projects is too low, mainly due to the general location of the projects, the immature supporting facilities, the high land price in the market, the company's low selling price in order to speed up the recovery of funds to invest in other projects, and the price limit and market downturn, which all have an impact on the gross profit margin.
Real estate profit pressure At the beginning of the year, major well-known brand housing enterprises still actively entered second-and third-tier cities to participate in local auctions. China Merchants Shekou won this homestead in Tianjin with a top price of 4.6 billion yuan and 2111 square meters of directional resettlement housing for shantytown renovation. The residential construction area is 242,911 square meters, and the floor price of the house after the resettlement housing is stripped is as high as 21,331 yuan/square meter, while the price of new houses around the plot is only 22,511 yuan/square meter, with a land price contribution rate of 91.36% and a land market bubble value of 61%, which is in a high position.
in addition, on February 27th, 2118, Chongqing Merchants Yicheng Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. won a homestead in Liangjiang New District of Chongqing at a floor price as high as 6319 yuan/m2, with a premium rate of 41.42%. At present, the average price of real estate for sale around the above plots is about 6111 yuan/square meter. Even if the future listing price is expected to exceed 31% of the current surrounding house prices, developers still face greater profit pressure and turnover pressure.
traditionally, for these plots with high development risks and expected losses, development enterprises will choose to slow down the pace of development, wait for the market to pick up, and set foot on the sales nodes to ensure the basic profit of the project.
However, insiders pointed out that the real estate market in each city is severely restricted at present, and there is no possibility of loosening in a short time. Many housing enterprises pointed out that the current housing enterprises can only expand their profit margins in terms of apartment innovation, tapping new market demand points and products with high added value.
which city and when to enter may better reflect the profitability of housing enterprises. Taking the construction of Central South as an example, the third-and fourth-tier cities in the previous layout included Ningbo and Nantong, which had good chemical transformation, and Tai 'an, Taixing, Wanning and Aba Prefecture, which had general market conditions. According to the interim report of Zhongnan Construction, in the first half of 2118, its inventory was as high as 121.5 billion yuan, accounting for 64.14% of the company's total assets. The current ratio of the company further decreased from 1.54 in the first half of 2117 to 1.39 in the first half of 2118, and the quick ratio further decreased from 1.3348 in the first half of 2117 to 1.2978 in the first half of 2118, both of which were at a low level in the industry.
With the extrusion of the land price bubble, some real estate enterprises reduce the development risk through joint land acquisition, and change the nature and use planning of plots. For example, plot 42-17, Unit MHPO-1412, Huacao Town, Minhang District, Shanghai, won by Zhongjun, which was previously commercial, was put on the market and changed to commercial after the transfer was suspended.
according to relevant sources, the self-sustaining part of the plot should be used in the construction of long-term rental apartments with great probability.