Russia and Turkey produced 288.09 million tons in 20 19, up 6% year-on-year. The output is increasing every year, but the consumption of Russian turkeys is still very low-only 1.97 kg per capita per year. In European countries with similar meat consumption structure, the figure is 4.5 kilograms per person per year.
By the end of 20 19, Russian farms had produced about 6.7 million tons of chicken products. The growth rate is very low, only 0.6%. This is due to several factors. First of all, this is related to the sharp rise in feed prices (food prices have risen by 35-45%). The cost of feed additives and veterinary drugs has also increased. At the same time, the output has declined, and most poultry farms are now facing difficulties.
From 20 10, Russians like to eat chicken more and more. At first, poultry accounted for 35.77% (24.7 kg per year) in the consumption structure, but in 20 19, this figure increased to 44.64% (33.9 kg per year). The share of pork has also increased: 33.09% (22.9 kg per year) in 20 10, and 34. 12% (25.9 kg per year) in 20 19. The consumption of beef decreased from 18kg in 20 10 to 14. 1kg in 20 19, and the share of beef decreased from 26.06 to 18.55%. At the same time, in the past nine years, the meat consumption in Russia has generally increased by 10. 1%, reaching 76 kg in 20 19. According to the preliminary estimate of the Agricultural Analysis Center, despite the existence of coronavirus, this number may remain at the same level by 2020.
The repositioning of consumer demand is caused by several factors. Vladimir Crafcenco explained: "One of them is the decline in the consumption price of pork and poultry meat, which is due to the fact that Russia achieved self-sufficiency in this kind of meat in 20 18 and 20 19 respectively."
In 20 18, the consumption price of Russian poultry meat and pork reached its peak, and then began to decline. By June 2020, the average retail price of pork in Russia is 260.83 rubles/kg, and the average retail price of poultry is 139.33 rubles/kg. On the contrary, the price of beef continues to rise: as of June 15, the average price was 354.53 rubles/kg. Due to the decrease of population, the consumption of this kind of meat has decreased.
Why is the cost of Russian meat so low? Due to the extensive use of compound feed and a large number of breeding, the product price has dropped by 22. As explained by representatives of large agricultural enterprises, the decline in pork prices is related to the increase in meat production and the increase in supply by Russian producers. The supply of pork in the market is increasingly exceeding the demand, the market is saturated, and the competition among producers is intensified, resulting in the wholesale price falling to no more than 100 rubles per kilogram. This is understandable, but the cost of raising animals has not decreased, but has increased. Grain and fuel are becoming more and more expensive. Expenditure on wages, feed, animal protection, equipment maintenance, losses caused by animal death, etc. ?
After all, it is not decreasing, but increasing every year. So, what is the difference between the actual cost of one kilogram of meat and the meat provided in the market? In fact, this difference is made up by state investment, because there are many government support measures for farmers in Russia. But most of these measures only apply to large farms. This also had an impact on small farmers, so they tried their best to save it, which led to the decline of product quality and the closure of a large number of small farms. At the same time, because a large number of pigs increase the risk of infectious diseases in pigs, and breeders use a lot of antibiotics and hormones, most of this meat has no taste and smell. (In large farms, it only takes 4-5 months for a piglet to grow to 100 kg, because they add various additives to the feed. )
The entry of Russian meat into the China market has changed the overall structure of the buyers of this product. China has surpassed Ukraine and other countries to become the largest export market for Russian poultry farmers. Rosselkhozbank's industry expert center told RBC that in the first six months of 2020, Russian meat exports increased by 2.2 times. 65438+/kloc-From October to June, Russian enterprises exported meat and meat by-products worth 336 million US dollars, while the total supply a year ago was 65438+49 million US dollars; The export value of poultry meat increased by 2.5 times, reaching $654.38+93 billion; Pork exports have quadrupled to $85 million, and beef exports have tripled to $654.38 million.
Half of Russian meat supplied abroad is sent to China. In the first half of the year, Chinese mainland's share accounted for 45% of the actual shipments, of which Hongkong accounted for 54%. According to the results of the first half of the year, Russia's meat exports to China surpassed Ukraine and became the leader. Ukraine's export share dropped from 28% to 16%, although in monetary terms, product shipments increased from $42 million to $53 million.
After the military conflict in Donbass broke out, Ukraine became the biggest buyer of Russian meat: until 20 14, Ukraine hardly bought meat and offal in Russia, and according to the data of the Federal Customs Administration, more than 47,000 tons of Russian meat were transported to Ukraine in 20 16. Russian statistics are recorded as export supplies to two regions of Ukraine-Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republic.
According to the data of "Agricultural Products Export" of the Federal Center, from October to June in 2020/KLOC-0, Ukraine imported 40,900 tons of meat from Russia, while China's imports almost doubled to 79,900 tons. Compared with last year, the supply to China has increased by 1 1 times-only 7,000 tons a year ago.
Sergei Yushin, director of the Executive Committee of the National Meat Association, said that Russia's export growth was mainly due to the increase in poultry meat supply. The head of the export department of Andrei Terekhin, the trading company of Cherkizovo, said that the sales volume of Cherkizovo Group, the largest chicken producer, increased by 2.4 times in the first half of the year, and the opening of the China market played a key role. The representative of Rosselkhoznadzor also talked about the amazing growth of poultry meat exports, and linked this growth with the increase in supply to China.
Why are exports to China increasing?
Yushin explained that the increase in supply is the result of Russian officials' long-term efforts to open the China market for domestic meat producers. In June 5438+10, domestic producers not only obtained the right to export poultry meat to China, but also obtained the right to export chilled beef. Negotiations to open the country to pork producers are under way.
Russia and China signed an agreement on 20 18 1 1 to allow poultry meat to be transported to each other. Rosselkhoznadzor has conducted corresponding negotiations for six years: for this purpose, it is necessary to provide information on veterinary services, evaluate the Russian epidemic situation, and experts from China came to review the enterprises planning to export. Yousin recalled that only after the inspection did enterprises start exporting materials.
However, even if an agreement is signed, it does not represent the beginning of delivery. To this end, a single enterprise must be certified. From October 20 18 10 to April 20 19, Russian poultry meat was not exported to China: the first batch arrived at the end of April. Cherkizovo didn't start delivery until May 20 19, but for the company, it was an important part of its entire export last year. Last year, the company signed several major contracts with its partners in China, including supplying chicken legs and wings, which are very popular in China, to the largest retail chains and restaurants.
The list of certified enterprises has been gradually expanded. If at the beginning of 20 19, China officially confirmed that it could supply poultry meat from 23 Russian enterprises, then the number of them has almost doubled since then. At present, about 40 poultry processing enterprises, including Cherkizovo, Prioskolye and Belgrankorm, can export their products to China.
The Russian National Meat Association reminds that Russian suppliers must also adapt their products to the technical requirements of China buyers. For example, chicken legs must meet the same strict requirements as "cast iron or steel grade", while chicken wings bought in restaurants must be of the same quality. In order to produce these products, enterprises must raise poultry that meet the corresponding conditions.
Andrey Dalnov, head of the Industrial Expert Center of the Agricultural Bank of Russia, said that Russia is expected to supply/kloc-0.5 to 200,000 tons of poultry meat and viscera to China this year. For China, this is still not a large quantity, but for Russia, this quantity is very important: Russia has achieved self-sufficiency in poultry meat, and the consumption in the domestic market will not provide strong growth for expanding production and further development. Yushin pointed out that the growth of Russian poultry breeding industry cannot be achieved without increasing exports.
In April, 2020, beef supply also began to be shipped to China-the first batch of 200 tons was sent by Miratorg, the largest meat producer in China. The agricultural holding company declined to comment. According to the data of the National Meat Association, the supply of Russian beef to China is still very small: only two enterprises have obtained export certification.
Why is China an important market?
China is the main buyer of Russian agricultural products: according to the data of Industrial Technology Center of Agricultural Bank of Russia, in the first half of this year, Russia exported agricultural products worth US$ 654.38+US$ 90 million to China. Although China did not buy Russian main agricultural products-grain, they bought a lot of other products, such as frozen fish, crustaceans, sunflower oil and poultry meat.
KPMG analysts had estimated that meat consumption ranked first in China market in terms of export potential: they believed that if all supply restrictions were lifted by 2024, Russian meat products worth 865.438+04 billion dollars would be exported to China every year. .
Attachment: Meat price in Kamchatka market (more expensive here than in other regions): pork tenderloin (Brazil) 400 rubles/kg (Russia) 350 rubles/kg.
Pork chops (neck) 445 rubles/kg (non-neck) 395 rubles/kg.
Pig calf (with bone) 230 rubles/kg
Pig face 345 rubles/kg
Beef breast 4 10 ruble/kg
Chicken breast 268 rubles/kg
Chicken leg (Russia) 290 rubles/kg (Brazil) 130 rubles/kg
Chicken wings 245 rubles/kg
Turkey pieces 375 rubles/kg
Duck 295 rubles/kg
Duck Slices (China) 550 rubles/kg.
Rabbit meat 550 rubles/kg
Venison (with bones) 495 rubles/kg
Venison (boneless) 750 rubles/kg
Chicken stuffing 165 rubles/kg
Turkey stuffing 195 rubles/kg