When the epidemic has left us and is gradually going away, have you ever thought about what will be the cheapest and what in the next ten years as people’s ideas change and the market adjusts? Is it the most expensive thing?
I still remember that after the SARS epidemic ended in 2003, Taobao appeared on the scene, and the rise of e-commerce was impressive.
Now 17 years have passed, and the number of Internet users has increased more than 20 times. Looking back, when this epidemic is over, which industries will be ruined in Waterloo, and which industries can usher in the long-awaited second spring?
Let’s first predict what the three cheapest items will be in the next ten years.
A House
Looking back on the current situation of the domestic property market in 2019, I believe everyone has witnessed it. At the same time, it also allows us to look at the real estate industry more objectively, dialectically and rationally.
At present, there are more than 90,000 real estate companies in my country, of which the debt ratio is 80%. I don’t know if you have heard of it, but right now, there are less than 90,000 real estate developers in 180 countries around the world.
It’s because China’s property market is too developed. Or is people's consumption level too high? It's really confusing.
Since 2020, in the next 10 years, as the market shrinks, I believe that the integration of real estate companies will be accelerated. After the reshuffle, it will be good to have about 30,000 left. It may even be kept at around 10,000. The main reasons are:
(1) First, the debt ratio of the company will definitely drop from 80% to about 45%. Of course, ideally it should be controlled at about 30%. When the initial cost of capital comes down, there is no doubt that the sales price in the property market will fall accordingly.
(2) From now on, the days when any developer owes money to buy land are forever gone, that is to say, any form of investment and shareholding. It must be based on real money taken out of your own pocket, otherwise there is no need to talk.
Objectively speaking, this not only accelerates the capital turnover of enterprises, but also provides a prerequisite guarantee. At the same time, it also played a certain positive role in rationalizing unit prices.
(3) There has always been a lot of controversy over the calculation of the shared area and whether it should still be retained. Once there is a fundamental conclusion or a solution, I think there is a lot of room here. It is definitely a significant part of reducing unit prices, and it is also a new starting point for us to gradually move towards reasonable consumption.
(4) Mr. Huang Qifan, the former mayor of Chongqing and deputy secretary-general of the China International Exchange Center, pointed out the overall trend of China's real estate volume in the "2020 China Economic Situation Analysis High-Level Report":
In 1990, the area of ??housing built nationwide, including private construction and government construction, was only 10 million square meters.
In 2000, the area suddenly increased to 100 million square meters.
In 2010, it reached 1 billion square meters.
In 2018, it increased by 700 million in only 8 years, reaching 1.7 billion square meters.
It can be seen that the growth rate of China's real estate scale is astonishing and the development momentum is quite strong. This is a unique feat in the history of the world in the past 100 years. It's really scary.
In this case, why is it said that houses will be the cheapest ten years from now? Here are four factors:
First of all, the expansion stage of citizens’ immediate needs has passed. In short, if the per capita housing area is generally about 50 square meters, it can fully meet the rigid needs. If it is more, it will be a special investment or other income and expenditure needs.
Secondly, the trend of population expansion is still limited at present.
After 2020, my country's population urbanization has reached 60%. Even if it reaches 70% in more than ten years, the urbanization process will basically be in a saturated state.
Moreover, when more than 70% of people enter the city, not only will they not increase, but they will gradually decrease.
In addition, the pace of old city renovation has not only slowed down, but most renovation projects have also been basically completed.
Furthermore, our main goal in the future is not how to expand housing construction in cities, nor how to improve the rigid gap of housing construction, but the life depreciation of housing to form an adjustment between increment and stock.
(5) Many people are skeptical, and we often hear people asking, will housing prices in China continue to skyrocket? Let us do a simple analysis here:
In 2000, the national average house price was about 1,000 yuan per square meter, but now it is more than 12,000 yuan per square meter, with an average increase of about 10 times. . Of course, this increase is determined by three major aspects: supply and demand, price, and exchange rate.
Looking at currency issuance alone, it has increased eightfold from 4 trillion in 2004 to 32 trillion in 2019.
It is conceivable that when this part of cash enters the market and begins to circulate, it will undoubtedly cause inflation.
Therefore, inflation supports the survival and growth of real estate companies and makes them become a huge reservoir.
(6) After we have a general understanding of the reasons for the rise in real estate prices, why will they not rise again in the next ten years?
Let us briefly describe, if a Developers, if they build 100 housing units, 20%, that is, 20 units, should be government affordable housing. The so-called affordable housing is rented to citizens who do not own a house or cannot afford a house.
Then the developer will have to use 30% of the remaining 80 houses as affordable housing in his own name and invest them in housing agencies or leasing companies to ensure rental housing. It is also possible for the developer to hold and lease the property for a long time.
Of course, this rental fee is a rental house with a commercial housing price. The biggest difference is that it is different in price from the rental fees of government affordable housing and public rental housing.
Finally, the remaining 50% of housing by real estate developers can still be sold as normal commercial housing.
As a result, a new housing pattern has emerged, in which 50% of residents can rent and 50% of residents can buy.
From now on, we will gradually realize that houses are for living in, not for speculation.
In addition, my country's family planning policy once created an inverted triangle family model. The consequence it brought to us is that we have one apartment for ourselves and each parent has one apartment. In the end, these houses can only be All are left to our descendants.
Currently, how many one-child families are there in the country, and how many of them are vacant properties that need to be redistributed? Think about it, in less than 10 years, one person will have a few households. A house, I would like to ask, what are you doing with so many houses? Can I eat it or drink it?
In the next ten years, once everyone is selling their houses, price will no longer be an issue that people will consider.
Because real estate developers predicted as early as three years ago that in ten years, a house will most likely be priced at the same price as cabbage.
According to statistical reports from the Consumer Association and relevant media, the current number of individual car owners in China has conservatively exceeded 300 million units. Of course, this number is increasing every day.
With the rapid development of our country's economy, cars have transformed from luxury goods more than ten years ago into consumer goods in people's daily lives. The continuous improvement of the quality of life has accelerated the increase in the number of cars purchased. .
But the price of the car itself is constantly falling. The reason is that the traditional automobile industry is gradually reaching saturation, and there is not much room for industry improvement.
In the next 10 years, the room for improvement in the automotive industry will mainly focus on:
(1) Energy. At present, except for some gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles, they are basically fuel-based. In the near future, they will definitely develop towards dual-energy or electric vehicles.
(2) Intelligence. The intelligent systems of automobiles will definitely become more and more developed, and even self-driving cars will become common.
(3) Performance. In the next 10 years, car safety and security will once again reach a new level.
We have also seen that in order to improve the long-term mechanism and competitiveness of enterprises, major automobile manufacturers, including a large number of foreign enterprises that have invested in and built factories in China, have used a variety of methods to seize market share and continue to develop. Channels and means launched a series of price wars.
With the reduction of capital costs and the acceleration of the company's own capital turnover, it can be said with certainty that the sales price of automobiles in the next 10 years will be lower and cheaper than today.
Everyone has witnessed how much cheaper mobile phones are today than they were 10 years ago. The optimization and integration of China's communications industry has not only changed the previous single sales model of buying a mobile phone and getting a phone bill, but now it is a mobile phone that comes with a phone bill.
What is even more incomprehensible is that the current major mobile phone operators have also injected many new concepts on the original basis.
They use mobile phones as an entry point, collect your personal consumption information through screening, and then include you as high-end and high-quality customers. They use mobile phones as a tool for your daily consumption and actively deliver them to you. Here, you don’t even have to pay a penny, and you earn traffic, click-through rates, software usage, etc.
Since there are cheap things, there must also be expensive things.
Yes, the sudden outbreak of the new coronavirus has made us realize that it is good to be alive. As the saying goes, you can do anything, but you can't do without money. Anything is fine, but don’t be sick. So in a broad sense, human health, air, and water are difficult to measure and purchase with money
If you still live in a heavy industrial city in the north, you know how clean the air is. It's precious. In many northern cities, smog and haze weather account for 180 of the 365 days a year. Over time, sunny days have become a luxury.
If you want to breathe fresh air and move your family, it can be costly. You can calculate how much it will cost.
As for clean water, according to media reports and academic surveys, water pollution in China has reached a very serious level.
Many rivers have dried up, and those that have not dried up are also facing pollution from domestic and industrial waste.
I still remember that in 2013, news broke out about residents in many places snatching purified water from supermarkets. To be honest, 10 years from now, we dare not say that this situation will have worsened, but it will still be serious.
Again, safe food. Have you ever thought about it, if our air and water are polluted, is our food still safe?
If you are an ordinary citizen, in the future, all green foods that are safe and environmentally friendly will have certain advantages in price. For the majority of consumers, they will of course be "expensive".
Jack Ma once said that in 10 years, cancer will plague every family. If the environment we live in becomes increasingly bad, there is no need to talk about physical health. Air pollution will seriously harm each of us.
For this reason, disease is our natural enemy, and medical treatment is our biggest burden. Even today, we can see that hospitals are overcrowded all day long and it is hard to find a bed. Let alone 10 years from now.
Of course, nothing is absolute. As policies and situations continue to change, there will certainly be many uncertain factors and unexpected variables in the next 10 years.
Spend rationally, do what you can, and live a wealthy life if you have money. There are ways to live without money. In short, the market will not change according to our will. This is God's love for us. It can be said that there is natural selection, so please do as you wish.