Personally, the weather forecast is credible. However, weather forecast is the overall situation, which is a possibility. It draws a range. If there is rain in this range, it is usually rain in this range. However, the weather forecast doesn't know where it will rain in this area, and it can't tell you. He can only tell you that it may rain! In this regard, the weather forecast is credible, and the credibility is still very high.

However, if you take the weather forecast as an absolute value, that is, it says it will rain, then the weather forecast is not credible. Of course, it's not the weather forecast that is unreliable, but your cognition. You regard the weather forecast as an omniscient god! Besides, even God can't tell you where the water drops in the air will fall, can he?