Looking forward to the market outlook, under the background of Sino-US trade friction, after stopping importing American beans, the domestic protein powder gap will gradually appear. In addition, at present, the high price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal makes rapeseed meal more cost-effective, superimposed aquaculture enters the peak season, and the demand for rapeseed meal is strong. It is expected that the supply of rapeseed meal will gradually tighten, and the later gains are expected to continue.
Rising import costs
The gap between rice is gradually emerging.
At present, the domestic soybean supply mainly comes from South America, and the dependence on American soybean imports was not strong before 10. However, due to the cautious market in the early stage, a considerable number of investors still pinned their hopes on the Sino-US peace talks, so the soybean price response was not sufficient. At the same time, most oil plants have purchased a large number of soybeans in advance, which makes the domestic short-term and medium-term supply of soybeans and bean dregs abundant and limits the price increase of soybeans and bean dregs.
Judging from the current situation, from 10 to the listing of South American soybeans next year, Sino-US trade friction will greatly affect the domestic protein powder supply. It is not so easy to make up for the protein powder gap caused by stopping importing American beans in China. From 2065438 to 2007, China imported 32.85 million tons of American beans and 26 million tons of soybean meal. Although China has successively lowered the tariffs on some soybeans and soybean meal in Southeast Asia, and liberalized the import of Ukrainian sunflower seed meal, or further liberalized the import of other miscellaneous meal, the increment of several million tons of miscellaneous meal is still a drop in the bucket in order of magnitude. Recently, the oil plant began to slow down the crushing, but it is expected that the raw materials will gradually be in short supply after 10. With the passage of time, the gap of domestic protein powder will gradually appear, and this gap can only be adjusted by raising prices, restraining demand or increasing supply, and the price of rapeseed meal will also benefit.
Increased demand in peak season
As a substitute for soybean meal, the price of rapeseed meal is greatly influenced by soybean meal, and the demand for substitution is usually adjusted by the price difference between them. Under the background of Sino-US trade friction, the market's expectation of soybean supply gap in the later period made soybean meal get a relatively high premium. By the close of July 24th, the main contract price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 639 yuan/ton, compared with 5 16 yuan/ton in the same period last year. Last year, the low price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal made soybean meal replace rapeseed meal in feed, but under the current price difference, the proportion of rapeseed meal added recovered, supporting the demand for rapeseed meal. Over time, the shortage of soybean meal supply or widening the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal further stimulated the addition of rapeseed meal in feed.
In addition, July-August is the peak season for aquaculture. As an almost indispensable raw material in aquatic feed, the demand of rapeseed meal has been well boosted. Compared with pig and poultry farming, aquaculture has a good profit this year, and the demand for rapeseed meal is also relatively strong, making the inventory at a low level in the same period in history. As of the week of July 20th, the inventory of rapeseed meal in Guangdong, Guangxi and Fujian was only 28,000 tons, which was 5 1.72% lower than the same period of last year. In recent weeks, strong demand has accelerated the decline of rapeseed meal inventory, which has played a very good role in boosting the rapeseed meal market.
On the whole, the gap of domestic protein powder in the later period has become a potential positive, and the favorable price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and the demand in the breeding season also boost the trend of rapeseed meal. Therefore, it is expected that the supply of rapeseed meal will gradually tighten, and the later gains are expected to continue. 1809 contracts can be backed by the 60-day moving average to do more on dips.