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Is the continuous increase in the wholesale price of vegetables nationwide a seasonal fluctuation?
It was reported on August 28 that the wholesale price of vegetables in China has been rising continuously recently, which has aroused widespread concern in the whole society. According to the detection of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of vegetables in China has increased week by week since August, reaching 4. 19 yuan per kilogram in the fourth week of August, which is 11.7% higher than that in the first week of August. Is the increase in vegetable prices closely related to the disaster in Shouguang, the hometown of vegetables? What will be the trend of vegetable prices in the future? In this regard, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs organized a special follow-up analysis.

The increase in vegetable prices conforms to the seasonal fluctuation law.

Previously, due to the influence of Typhoon 18, a large-scale heavy precipitation weather process occurred in Shandong Province. According to the agricultural situation dispatch on August 27th, Typhoon * * * caused 230,000 greenhouses in Shandong Province to be damaged to varying degrees, with the affected area of vegetables 1.875 million mu, the disaster-stricken area1.61.000 mu, and the non-harvested area of 454,000 mu.

The Shandong Provincial Department of Agriculture told the media yesterday that the damaged vegetable greenhouses were mainly concentrated in Weifang, Jining and Heze. Among them, Weifang, known as the national "vegetable basket", suffered 6,543,800 mu of vegetables, 593,000 mu of disasters, 277,000 mu of crops and 220,000 greenhouses. In particular, Shouguang, the main vegetable producing area in greenhouse, and some villages on both sides of Mihe River were flooded and irrigated in greenhouse, which was seriously affected.

"Overall, the recent increase in vegetable prices is generally a normal seasonal fluctuation. Shouguang vegetable disaster has limited impact on the supply of vegetable market in China, and will not significantly push up the price of vegetable in China. It is expected that the national vegetable price will stabilize and fall in the later period. " Keke, director of the Market and Information Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said.

Keke pointed out that the recent increase in vegetable prices generally conforms to the law of seasonal fluctuation throughout the year. Affected by natural factors such as climate, the seasonal fluctuation characteristics of vegetable prices in China are obvious. Judging from the historical price data for many years, the price of vegetables in winter and spring is often the high point of the whole year. Later, with the warmer weather, the amount of open-field vegetables on the market increased, and the price continued to fall to the low point of the year. In summer, with the nationwide entry into a wide range of high temperature and rainy weather, vegetable prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and will fall back in September and June. Judging from the operation of the vegetable market this year, it basically conforms to this law. Vegetable prices began to rebound seasonally in July and maintained an upward trend in August.

According to the monitoring of the National Agricultural Products Wholesale Price Information System of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of 28 kinds of vegetables in the national wholesale market was 4. 19 yuan per kilogram from August 20 to 26, up 8.0% from the previous week, with an increase of 5.4 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 10.8%. Compared with the average level of the same period in recent five years, the average weekly price increased by 9. 1%.

"The reason for the large rebound is mainly due to the continuous high temperature and rainy weather in many parts of the country in the early stage. Some major producing areas have suffered from floods and geological disasters, which have a greater impact on vegetable growth, picking and transportation than in previous years. " Keke said.

Shouguang disaster has limited impact on the national vegetable market.

Then, will Shouguang's disaster affect the national "vegetable basket" supply? Keke pointed out that this disaster has limited impact on the supply of vegetables in China and will not significantly push up the price of vegetables in China. "The recent two typhoons have caused great losses to vegetable farmers in Weifang, especially Shouguang. Now governments at all levels are helping farmers to reduce disasters and save themselves and resume production. Judging from the impact on the national vegetable market, it should be said that it is relatively limited. "

According to the scheduling, summer is the off-season of fruit and vegetable production in Weifang. A large number of vegetable farmers are kept in high-temperature greenhouses, and relatively few vegetables are planted. There are few varieties and yields of vegetables in the market, which does not affect the overall situation of vegetable supply in China.

"For example, the vegetable market in Beijing is mainly supplied by Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning and other regions with low temperatures from July to September. Shandong is mainly onion, ginger and garlic, and Weifang vegetables account for about 6% of Beijing's total supply. The price of vegetables in Weifang has little influence on Beijing. At present, the supply of Beijing vegetable market is relatively stable. " Keke said.