On July 29th, Xiabu Xiabu issued a half-year warning announcement, which stated that the Group expected the revenue in the first half of 2002/KLOC-0 to increase by about 59% compared with the same period of last year. The loss attributable to the owners of the company is between 40 million yuan (RMB) and 60 million yuan (RMB), which is about 80% less than the same period last year.
In addition, Xiabu also announced that the company expects to close about 200 loss-making stores of Xiabu brand throughout the year.
From the perspective of the capital market, in the past six months, Xiabu Xiabu has dropped by nearly 70% from the peak of HK$ 27. 15 per share, and its total market value has evaporated by more than HK$ 20 billion.
Haidilao, another big hot pot giant, has a hard time. On July 25th, Haidilao issued a profit warning. Although it turned losses into profits after the epidemic, the net profit in the first half of the year was only 80 million yuan to 654.38 billion yuan. Affected by this news, Haidilao's share price fell by 16.69%, and its market value evaporated by HK$ 37.9 billion in a single day.
Previously, Haidilao announced in March 1 day that the net profit in 20 19 was 2.347 billion yuan, down about 90% year-on-year in 2020.
Over the years, the share price of Haidilao has dropped from the peak of HK$ 85.80 to HK$ 28.95 a few days ago, and its market value has evaporated by more than HK$ 300 billion compared with the peak in February.
This kind of declining performance is still the industry leader with unlimited scenery. The so-called "Haidilao can't learn"?
As the leader of the hot pot industry, why are these two companies getting worse and worse?
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Although the models and routes of the two companies are different, the decline in performance points to the same point-they are both blindly rushing for the past and paying a huge price.
Under the epidemic situation, Zhang Yong completed an adventure of "I am greedy when others are afraid". In 2020, Haidilao will open an average of 1.49 stores every day, with a net increase of 530 stores.
In terms of expansion, I am not idle. From 20 17 to 2020, the total number of its stores will be 759,934, 1022, 106 1 respectively. The continuous expansion directly led to a sharp increase in the cost of sipping, and its personnel cost rose from 830 million yuan to 654.38+0.48 billion yuan in four years.
He once said that in order to ensure the quality of service, there will be no more than 30 new stores every year. In the first 24 years of the development of this hot pot brand, the total number of stores was less than 500, but it began to run wild in 20 19, and 308 new stores were opened a year.
At present, Haidilao mainly opens new stores to increase market share, thus driving overall growth. The crazy expansion speed of Haidilao is reflected in the soaring number of stores. In 20 16, Haidilao had only 176 stores in the world. By 2020, this number will jump directly to 1298.
"Others are afraid of my greed" emphasizes taking advantage of the trend. Only by seeing the real trend that others can't see can you win the bet.
However, expanding during the epidemic was originally an unwise act of overconfidence. During the period of cold consumption at home, such expansion will not only lead to the diversion of existing stores, but also it is difficult for new stores to get benefits quickly, which naturally means the continuous decline of transaction rate.
The so-called turnover rate refers to the repeated utilization rate of tables. The higher the turnover rate, the more guests will be received in a limited time. This is the core advantage that Haidilao was proud of before.
However, in recent years, the turnover rate of bottom fishing has been deteriorating. The turnover rate of bottom fishing in 20 17 and 20 18 years is 5.0 times/day. In 20 19, the average turnover times of bottom fishing decreased to 4.8 times/day, and decreased to 3.5 times/day in 2020.
Even after the epidemic situation improved, the turnover rate of Haidilao continued to decline. 202 1, the turnover rate of Haidilao was 3.5-3.7 times in March and less than 3 times in April, which is undoubtedly a dangerous signal.
According to the calculation of Guo Xin Securities, the turnover rate of 3 times/day is the breakeven line of Haidilao single store. If it is lower than this value, it can be considered that the store is at a loss.
The same is true of Xiabu Xiabu. At the peak, the turnover rate of some Xiabu shops was as high as 7 times/day, but it has dropped to 2.8 times/day in 20 18 and only 1.8 times/day in 2020. The turnover rate of sub-brands has increased from 4. 1 times in 20 19 years.
We know that when the turnover rate is depressed, enterprises will reach out to consumers and try to make profits by raising prices.
In the past two years, the news of "fancy price increase in Haidilao" frequently appeared in hot searches, such as "price reduction without price reduction" and "replacing beef with lobster sauce".
Some netizens exposed the menu, and the whole crispy meat rose from 26 yuan to 44 yuan, and the price of kelp rose from half of the original 1 1 yuan to the whole of 28 yuan. Some netizens said that recently, two people ate 344 yuan, which was discounted before the epidemic, so they couldn't spend 200 yuan.
Comparing the menus of Haidilao in 2020 and 20021,the prices of most dishes have increased 1-3 yuan. For example, half of the pepper-scented kidney flowers rose from the original 19 yuan to 22 yuan, and half of the green bamboo shoots rose from 10 yuan to 12 yuan.
At this point, the performance announcement of Haidilao shows that the per capita consumption of Haidilao's overall customers has increased from 20 105.2 yuan to 1 10.65438 0 yuan in 2020, and the per capita consumption has increased by 4.9 yuan.
4.9 yuan doesn't sound like much, but as a multi-person dining activity, hot pot multiplied by the number of people is much more expensive. Combined with the 250 million passenger flow announced by Haidilao in 2020, it will be found that the increase in per capita consumption of Haidilao can create an additional income of 65.438+22.5 billion for Haidilao.
In recent years, the per capita consumption of Xiabu Xiabu stores has soared from the original average of 40-50 yuan to 70-90 yuan, and some stores in first-tier cities can even reach 80- 100 yuan.
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Fancy death deviating from the initial heart of the product
Behind the rapid rush of the two giants, it reflects the same fatal pain point-after growing into a leader, they are deviating from their previous initial intentions.
Besides, Haidilao has always been famous for its service. There has also been a big discussion on how abnormal the Haidilao service is on the Internet.
However, Haidilao seems to have forgotten in recent years-service has always been just "icing on the cake"; And the product is the key lifeline.
So we can see that over the years, Haidilao's products have been criticized more and more; At the same time, the service moat on which it depends for a living is evaluated as unbearable by more and more consumers.
On the one hand, compared with the service of Haidilao, the products are undoubtedly lacking.
Compared with Banu's hairy belly, Haidilao has no most innovative and bright products. Even the industry boss who is at the end of his wit has come up with his brother's products.
Previously, the news that Haidilao was questioned by netizens for allegedly copying Banu beef omasum hot pot products exploded on the Internet, which was once popular in Weibo, with a topic reading volume of nearly 300 million.
The netizen broke the news with pictures and facts. Haidilao's plate setting method is similar to that of Banu. The plates of bean sprouts, embroidered cocci, hairy belly, fried dough sticks and other dishes in two hot pot restaurants are all copied. Netizens also pointed out that the live bean sprouts in Haidilao copied the copy of the bean sprouts in Banu well.
It is worth noting that Banu, who was "shanzhai" by Haidilao, was once a firm imitator of the former. At the beginning of my business, I have been learning from Haidilao step by step. "Sea bottom fishing rules, you have to do it later. If you don't do it, it seems wrong and not confident. " Du Zhong Bing, the leader of Banu, once said this.
But then the company faced great financial pressure, so Banu came to his senses. The core of strategy is not to rob others, but to defend oneself. Everyone goes back to their homes and places. "Service is not characteristic of Banu, but hairy belly and mushroom soup." Since then, Banu has shouldered the banner of productism and declared war on the serviceism of Haidilao. Later, Banu also triggered the collective tasting of the manager of Haidilao Beijing Hot Pot Restaurant because of his hot performance.
On the other hand, Haidilao's most proud "service" is also losing its competitiveness.
At first, everyone was full of novelty about the meticulous service of Haidilao, but after a long time, they felt full of being disturbed.
Young people seldom get together, so they always regard "eating" as "socializing" and naturally don't want to be disturbed by outsiders. For business people, it is particularly uncomfortable to be overheard when talking about business cooperation, or to be disturbed at a critical moment.
What's more, the wool is on the sheep, and excessive service will inevitably mean extra manpower expenditure, and finally consumers will have to pay the bill. Internally speaking, the average recruitment and training fee for each newcomer in Haidilao is 1400- 1800 yuan, and it costs more than 500 yuan to be completely independent, which is one of the important reasons why Haidilao is so expensive.
In a word, Haidilao not only forgot that "product" is the foundation of the cause, but also wrongly shifted the focus of the enterprise; I have misunderstood the true meaning of "service"-putting myself in the consumer's shoes instead of using it as a gimmick to attract customers.
Besides, we take the route of "cost performance" and "single economy". This one-person pot from Taiwan Province Province is clean, fast and convenient. It used to be a hot pot for many student parties and Beipiao. In the steaming winter, eat a small hot pot with vegetarian dishes and classic sesame sauce for only 30-40 yuan.
But over the years, it is no longer close to the people, and it often costs 60-70 yuan to eat a meal, which makes people more and more unaffordable. The crux of the change of Xiabu Xiabu is probably influenced by Haidilao. Because it is too slow to make money in the original cost-effective mode. How many tables do I have to turn over to catch up with 30 yuan and 300 yuan?
Therefore, in 20 17, Xiabu officially announced that it would change from "fast food" to "light dinner", following the example of Haidilao and taking the high-end (high-priced) road. After upgrading, a plate of meat should be from 30 yuan to 40 yuan, and a cup of milk tea should be from 20 yuan to 28 yuan. The 2020 annual report shows that the per capita consumption of first-tier cities has reached 65.2 yuan. In the public comment software, the per capita price has even risen to 70 yuan -80 yuan, and the consumption of shops in some first-tier cities can even reach 90- 100 yuan.
But consumers don't buy it. Some netizens commented: "It is the identity of the maid and the request of the princess. When I got home, my temper was still bad. " In other words, as a cost-effective brand, Xiabu insists on the high-end route. As a result, it failed to pretend to be B, but lost its cost-effective advantage, and the price rose, but the product and service level were even worse.
This is because the impression of "cost-effective" has been deeply rooted in people's hearts, and suddenly taking the high-priced route will make consumers feel "unworthy". "Sometimes I want to eat a cheap and decent hot pot, and I really don't need so much' added value'." "If I have this money, why not eat other high-end hot pot brands?"
Think about it from another angle. If it is a product of Xiaomi and suddenly charges the price of Apple, then consumers will definitely not accept it.
Lost the initial feeding, but also lost the core competitiveness of the brand. No features, no value, naturally lead to the gradual loss of customer base.
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There is not much time left for the giant.
Therefore, although the model is "different", the result of the two giants is the same-the price is getting more and more expensive and the taste is getting worse.
In this world, there is no giant who will never fail. This is especially true for the hot pot industry with fierce competition. According to enterprise survey data, there are currently 422,000 hot pot related enterprises in China, of which 84,000 were newly established in the past year, and 77,000 are still in business.
Where there are many people, it is also a place with fierce competition. Previously, there was a view that a restaurant closed down every six minutes, which was not an alarmist. Whether it is the collapse of a large number of star online red shops in recent years, or the middle-aged crisis of the industry's giants, we can see the cruelty of this industry.
If we can't conform to the market rules and grasp the fundamentals of the enterprise, even the industry leader will one day be shot dead on the beach by the "back wave"
From this point of view, there is really not much time left for fishing and sipping in the sea.
Lean management should be implemented to increase revenue and reduce expenditure!