Author | Tian Yanhong

Editor | Feng Yu

On the fifteenth day of the first month, the moon is full, and eating glutinous rice balls is good for reunion.

This year's Lantern Festival, everyone may have a reunion dinner at home. Affected by the epidemic, most enterprises in China have postponed their work, and the working hours are basically set after February 10 (the 17th day of the first month).

And how about the sales of glutinous rice balls this year, and whether the Yuanxiao enterprises are affected? This "first line of entrepreneurship" was investigated and visited.

According to the usual practice, seven or eight days before the Lantern Festival, Shandong Laizhou Monkey Brother Food Co., Ltd. was still working overtime to produce glutinous rice balls.

Founded on 20 12, the company is mainly engaged in the production and processing of glutinous rice balls, frozen foods and other products. "This year, the company's main products are rhubarb zongzi, including peanut stuffing and sesame stuffing," company employee Wang Shaowu told the forefront of entrepreneurship.

Every year from June 5438-1October 065438, the factory enters the production period of glutinous rice balls and will arrange production according to the sales order. 7-8 tons of glutinous rice balls are produced every day, and the total output of glutinous rice balls before the Spring Festival is 400-500 tons.

In addition, there will be a small order peak before the Lantern Festival every year, so the company will work overtime to produce a batch of glutinous rice balls for nearby cities before the Lantern Festival.

However, this year's situation is slightly different. Wang Shaowu said, "Affected by the epidemic, the factory stopped working during the Spring Festival this year. Although the current loss cannot be estimated, it has little impact on the company's annual operating conditions. After all, most of jiaozi has been sold out before the Spring Festival. "

In fact, at a time when the epidemic is spreading and many industries are delaying the resumption of work, enterprises in some fields are not greatly affected by the epidemic.

Wang Anchang, a staff member of Shanghai Jinta Food Co., Ltd., also said, "Before the Lantern Festival this year, the freight of major zongzi manufacturers was blocked, which caused the company's current inventory to be quite tight and the sales of zongzi would also be affected. However, these impacts are limited, and in general, they have not brought huge economic losses to the company. "

This is also related to the production habits of the quick-frozen food industry in advance.

According to Wang Anchang, as a distributor in Shanghai, the company acts as an agent for brands such as Sanquan, Missing, Wanchai Wharf and Longfeng, and then sells them to local small and medium-sized supermarkets. "Every year from June 5438 to February, we start stocking jiaozi. Take Wan Chai Wharf as an example. We purchase five or six thousand boxes every year, and each box earns 10 points. We have completed the delivery work to the supermarket before the Spring Festival. "

Complete the distribution and sales ahead of time, so that the quick-frozen industry can avoid the epidemic.

At present, many dumpling companies have also responded quickly.

On 1 1 day (February 2) after Wuhan closed, Sanquan Food, one of the three brands of glutinous rice balls, announced that it had arranged inventory and sales in advance before the Spring Festival this year, which increased its inventory preparation compared with the same period in history. At present, the market demand has increased compared with the same period, and the inventory of companies and channels can meet the market demand in the near future and the Lantern Festival.

However, the changes in the market environment this year have also promoted the sales of glutinous rice balls to a certain extent.

The relevant person in charge of Sanquan Food also publicly stated that during the epidemic period, the frequency of family meals increased, jiaozi and cakes played a prominent role as family meals, and the demand for quick-frozen food increased. And from the terminal point of view, some products such as quick-frozen dumplings and cakes in some terminal stores in some areas are out of stock, and the order volume of the company has increased to a certain extent compared with the same period.

Coincidentally, Miss Gourmet also made adjustments in products and channels.

According to media reports, at the product level, Missing Food has increased the distribution of packaged products, healthy sugar-free dumplings and zongzi. In terms of channels, the company has increased the product supply of new retail channels, such as e-commerce, home delivery and community group purchase, to facilitate consumers to buy frozen food.

However, I'm afraid it's not easy to eat Yuanxiao bought online in time.

As of February 7th, "Entrepreneurial Frontline" consulted Sanquan Food, Missing Food and Wan Chai Wharf brand stores on the e-commerce platform, asking whether it can deliver the goods at present. The answer is basically the same: due to the epidemic situation, orders will be delivered in turn from February 10 to February 12 during the Spring Festival, but the areas involved in the epidemic situation may change at any time, and the delivery time of all areas cannot be guaranteed.

In other words, if users buy jiaozi online, it is difficult to receive it on time before the Lantern Festival.

It is worth noting that buying glutinous rice balls online does not conform to the consumption habits of Chinese people.

Zhu, a food industry analyst in China, told Pioneering Frontier that "the sales channels of glutinous rice balls are mainly offline, including hypermarkets, community supermarkets and mom-and-pop shops. "

"Our family has been buying dumplings in offline supermarkets for so many years. Complete varieties, many choices, convenient and fast. This year, because of the government's epidemic prevention and control work, everyone went out less and time suddenly increased. My mother still packs jiaozi at home, but she still bought a few boxes of missing jiaozi in the supermarket. " Mr. Zhang, a citizen of Guangzhou, told the Frontline of Entrepreneurship.

In view of the mismatch between the products of dumplings and the sales characteristics of online channels, it is relatively difficult to move dumplings to online sales. "Tangyuan is a low-value product, the cost of cold chain logistics is high, and online sales are not worth the candle. Therefore, if enterprises do not have strong cold chain support, online operations will have very big shortcomings. "

Zhu also said, "Enterprises affected by the epidemic, with reduced flow of people, closed channels, no online layout or imperfect online business layout are the first to be affected by the epidemic. And with the gradual recovery of logistics and distribution, online business will show strong vitality, which is very beneficial for enterprises to withdraw funds, enhance cash flow and reduce costs. "

The retail expert package also agrees with this statement. "At present, the entire terminal retail market has not yet entered the normal operation stage, and there are also problems in the logistics system, which will bring certain difficulties to the supply of glutinous rice balls market this year."

But this negative effect does not exist for a long time.

At present, the consumption characteristics of dumplings on holidays are obvious, but more people begin to use them as breakfast or afternoon tea, and there will be more supplementary ways to use them in the future. "In addition, the company's current product line is very rich, and the proportion of dumplings in the overall product of the company is not high, so it will not have much impact on the future sales of dumplings." Bao added.

The nature of quick-frozen food seems to have bypassed the industry-it was inconvenient for residents to purchase during the epidemic, and quick-frozen food became the "darling".

With the hoarding behavior, the stocks of frozen food-related companies have also received positive feedback from the capital market.

Take Sanquan Food as an example. The day after the announcement, on the opening day of the stock market on February 3, the share prices of most food sectors fell to varying degrees, but the share price of Sanquan Food rose by 3.84%, which kept growing for four consecutive days. Its frozen food industry has also become the most popular field during the Spring Festival and the epidemic.

Bao Yuezhong also said, "Quick-frozen products like glutinous rice balls have a certain storage period, and there will be no particularly great pressure on future sales."

In addition to the boosting effect of the epidemic on the quick-frozen food industry, the market potential of the industry itself is also being released.

According to the report of Prospective Industry Research Institute, the market scale of China frozen food industry continued to expand from 20 14 to 20 18, and the market scale of China frozen food industry exceeded 1 1000 billion yuan in 20 18. During the reporting period, the per capita consumption of quick-frozen food in China continued to grow, reaching 82.37 yuan in 2065438+2008.

In addition, with the continuous growth of China's per capita disposable income, the consumption of quick-frozen food will gradually increase. It is estimated that by 2024, the market size of China's frozen food industry will exceed 200 billion yuan.

In the future, with the gradual control of the epidemic, the frozen food industry will return to the accelerated growth track.

* The title map and some drawings in this paper are authorized.