First of all, it depends on the total turnover of the whole market. The core point is to look at the ceiling of the market. Looking at the ceiling of the market is to see how big the plate is.

When we devote ourselves to an industry, we must find an industry with a high ceiling.

You said to be a "small but beautiful" industry. "Small" can be done, but it is often difficult for a small industry to achieve "beauty". Because only when the ceiling of a market is high enough will more hot money, more enterprises and more investment flood into it.

What is a ceiling? The upper limit is the current total income scale and future growth forecast of this industry.

Income scale, what plate is big enough? At least 1000 billion is a big industry, and1000 billion is a relatively low-key industry; If the total scale of the whole industry is only tens of millions, then this is a very small industry, very small and narrow, and the significance of doing this industry is not so great.

Why is there a problem with only tens of millions or 1 100 million? Not many companies will enter this industry, because the market behind it is too small, and the final result is that there seems to be little competition, but when your company is very young, its competitiveness and liquidity will be very small, that is, where there is no competition, there will be no particularly good treatment.

What do you mean by "afraid of getting into the wrong business"? In an industry where water is shallow and above eight kings, if you are in the wrong line, there will be a lot of low-level bad competition.

So, first of all, the industry plate is big enough, in fact, there are already better opportunities. Then look at the segmentation field, that is, where you are in the value chain of an industry. In this link, you can see whether you have a competitive advantage and what your position is.

(2) Market size trend

On the other hand, it depends on the growth trend of this industry, that is, the market size trend.

We should look at both the big and the small, and do it in a cross-contrast way, because many people will say that they are making a side dish in a big field. What is the situation of this small sub-industry?

For example: gourmet menu community, which is a small plate in a big field. What kind of report can we read on this plate?

What should we do when we are going to see a small track in a big industry? You can look at some peripheral reports and evaluate them by comparative difference method.

(C), the industry breakdown report-look at the proportion

In addition, it depends on the proportion, that is, through the industry breakdown report to see the proportion.

In the real case, you must make a subdivision trajectory in a big plate. We "look down" in order to really get involved in what we do.

For example, the total internet advertising market in China in 20 18 was 2065438+375 billion yuan, 20 17 was 491400 million yuan, and the total mobile advertising market in 20 18 was 2065438+2549 billion yuan, which is the data of the whole track. Then, we search the next level and disassemble it into China short video marketing market step by step, which is 2.26 billion yuan in 20 17 and1400 million yuan in 20 18.

If we only look at the data, we feel that the whole short video marketing market is very small, only 2 billion. However, we can see the overall proportion of this small market through data: 0.6% of 20 17 Internet advertising market and 2.8% of 20 18 Internet advertising.

We also see that the growth rate of short video marketing is very fast:

(4) Look at the trend &; Look at the growth rate

Next, we have to look at the trend.

It doesn't necessarily mean that "big now" will always be "big". What we are looking for is the tuyere-not "big" at the moment, not "big" today, and "big" in the future.

When we devote ourselves to an industry, we should also see its overall growth. The best thing is that it is still weak, and the plate will be big in the future. This is a good state. If we are mature now, we will only go in with a screw and a brick.

The data shows that the growth rate of mobile advertising is faster than the market. So everyone knows why advertisements on the Web and PC are a thing of the past, and no one wants to do it. It's a sunset industry, and everyone is willing to do App, applet, H5.

Our ultimate goal is the transformation of advertising. The growth rate of mobile advertising (49%) is higher than the market growth rate (365,438+0%).

The current situation of short video marketing in China: the growth rate of the chain is 520%, and the growth rate of 1 year is 5 times. The data shows that in the next two to three years, there will still be a rapid growth of more than 70%. The reason why the growth rate is so large is because the whole user habit of short video has been developed, and the whole user volume is very large. February, 2065438 15, the DAU number of short videos permanently exceeds that of long videos.

All industries will eventually slow down, but we have to see whether the value left after the slowdown is large enough and whether it is a state of hundreds of billions.

Look at the trend of an industry: whether it can maintain a fast-growing band in the next few years, the high probability is the state of 100 billion (2B is not that big, here mainly refers to 2C).

(5), see this trade-off.

Besides looking at the trend, we should also look at the ebb and flow of the tide and the changes in Yun Qi.

In recent years, the market share of different forms of online advertising in China is constantly changing: information flow advertising is on the rise (from 2.2% of 20 13 to 30% of 20 19 and 35% in 2020), and e-commerce advertising is also on the rise (from 27% to 30%); Video patch advertising is declining (7% to 4%), and brand graphic advertising is also declining (2 1% to 9.5%, and the share is directly halved).

It is concluded that the advertising market is rapidly changing to fragmentation and short video, and the overall growth rate of traditional brand advertisements is greatly reduced, while the growth rate of lightweight marketing advertisements such as information flow and short video is very obvious.

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