1. We know that the dealer is willing to pay a low price instead of a high price, so the result of a low Kelly value is most likely to appear.

2. We know that the total bonus paid by the banker is 1, so the result of Kelly value > 1 is not easy to come out (the banker has high odds and the strong team wins by force; Bankers have another intention to compensate ... except), which may result in Kelly value ≤ 1.

3. The basic way for gaming companies to make a profit is to keep the balance of compensation through the prediction of the game, and then collect the commission allowed by law (commonly known as water money). At present, the payout ratio in Europe is 0.89~0.92, so the Kelly value lower than or equal to this standard is acceptable to gaming companies.

4. The banker also has a second source of income, that is, in addition to the normal water collection money, there is also compensation surplus, so the result with the lowest Kelly value is most likely to be typed. The result of low Kelly value is often caused by the "tacit ball", and Kelly value is a barometer to find the upset.

This is the significance of Kelly value to football lottery prediction.

The calculation of Kelly value is closely related to the odds, which can be said to be one of the data information that comes with the odds (the Kelly value calculated here is actually the theoretical compensation tolerance rate, which was predicted by the banker when he opened the claim, and it is the reference for our data analysis and judgment. ), odds are a great invention, which can be seen. The importance of odds analysis to the prediction of football lottery is self-evident.

Here, I would also like to remind Caiyoumen that Kelly's value also has two concepts: broad and narrow. The narrow Kelly value is of reference significance to the analysis of football lottery, while the broad Kelly value, such as the Kelly value published after the banker's calculation, only expresses the banker's expectation of various game results, and does not constitute the actual behavior of players, so it has little reference value.

Let me give you a practical example, Football Lottery 04037 Arsenal vs West Brom:

The average weekend odds in Europe are1.185.81.15.39.

The weekend European betting ratio is 0.8 1. 1.50.04.

Kelly values are calculated as 0.96 0.87 0.61respectively.

Another news is that West Brom is a friendly match of Arsenal, so I boldly judged that the result was 1, 0.

Because the waterline (S) of this set of odds is = 1.084, and the compensation tolerance calculated in advance by the gambling company is 0.923, the European betting ratio is credible through the analysis of betting behavior, so the Kelly value of the main win is 0.96 greater than 0.923, while the Kelly values of the draw and the main negative are 0.87 and 0.6 1 respectively, and the latter two results are less than 0.923. As a result, the two sides 1: 1 drew.