Many years ago, when hairy crab farming was just emerging, the scale of farming was small and the production was low. With the scarcity of hairy crabs, most practitioners were able to achieve good benefits. Along with the continuous development of information technology, the speed of logistics, and the prosperity of the gift economy, many related practitioners can also enjoy the dividends brought by the growth of a new mode of sales of agricultural products! However, in recent years, with more and more people entering the industry, the north of Jiangsu, Hubei, Anhui and other places, river crab farming scale continues to increase, the production increased year by year. Previously, only in specialty stores and large supermarkets selling hairy crabs, now all over the country townships and markets and vegetable markets. New Year's Eve, I was surprised to find that the countryside of my hometown market can also buy hairy crabs! Of course, consumption sinks, the selling price is bound to fall! In this process, if you can't keep up with market demand, then you're bound to be phased out.

In fact, crab farming is a business! Produce something and sell it. There are inputs (costs), there are gains (profits)! Then we definitely just have to get our accounts straight before we can take the next step in production. Most of the farmers friends do not calculate the input, only care about the final income (just income, the final sale of crabs to get the money in hand), almost no sense of risk.

There are two main aspects of risk:

The first one is that as long as the crab size is large, without calculating the cost of seedling, pond rent, snail, medicine, feeding and so on during the breeding process, it is easy to fail in the end because of the poor market conditions and low production of their own.

The 2nd situation is to pursue high yield and ignore the risk of management! Oxygen capacity, planting with no obvious adjustments, resulting in poor breeding environment, yield and specifications do not go up resulting in breeding failure!

Let's first take a preliminary look at the efficiency of crab farming in the country in 2018:

Through the table above, we can clearly see the relationship between cost and profit. What is the situation to make money? Quite simply, income is greater than costs! How to calculate? We used to just figure out the big size, a big crab tops three small crabs, but there is only a vague concept. Big, in the end to how big? High price, in the end to how high? It is not very clear!

Risk one: the risk of high cost

In fact, we can calculate by yield! First of all, let's calculate how much money is needed to raise 1 pound of crabs? The table above we can clearly see the cost of other areas of crab in about 20 yuan / catty, selling average price of 30-50 yuan / catty can basically make money, and the economic benefits (profit / cost) most of the more than 50%! And our Gaochun area? Yield 100 kg ~ 120 kg / mu, or optimistic estimates! The cost is how much? 5000 yuan / mu or more, high can be up to 6500 yuan / mu more, calculated that we raise the cost of crab is how much a catty? The answer is $40-50/pound! So how much average price do we need to sell to make money?

70 yuan! (Wholesale price) See clearly, our average price need to sell to 70 yuan / catty to have a better benefit! But most of our average price is between 40-50 yuan/, which is why our crab farming situation in Gaochun is not as good as it should be! It's not that the wholesalers who collect crabs are manipulating the price, it's that our production is low and our price expectations are too high! Because other regions have cost advantages, the heart price is lower than ours! The same specification of crabs, lower than us 5-10 dollars can be out! It is like speculation in stocks, it is possible that you can never wait for 70 yuan / catty before selling crabs, waiting for the general price of 30-40 yuan / catty sale, then the loss is even greater!

So the most fundamental reason why it is difficult to make money from crab farming is: low production! How can you play with others when you have fewer goods and no chips in your hand? The only way to hedge against the risk of a downturn in market conditions is to increase production! Crab farming can not be as good as other varieties, crab farming once a year, the first half of the answer to the question paper, the second half of the results! There is only one opportunity a year, so reducing the risk of crab farming is the most critical! Missed a year, is the next year, the next year and what is the situation, we do not know.

Risk two: the risk of management

Is there any risk in the breeding process? Of course there is! Using the wrong medication, placing the wrong car of bad snails, or hitting a polluted water source, lacking oxygen, are all management risks! Don't underestimate these risks, for example, this time the "moss killing incident", a year of farming has just begun, may already be over! Is it a wake-up call for us? The management risk of crab farming should not be ignored! Crab farming forgets the risk, just like driving on the road without insurance, hospital visits without medical insurance, old age retirement without pension! How to reduce the risk of crab farming? In addition to what we have just said to improve the yield, the most important thing is that we have been advocating the concept of "controlled ecological farming" - controlled and ecological; control of the environment, the ecological balance, rather than seemingly high-tech kill to kill! The things in the pond are the result of natural selection, bugs or moss, and have not been eliminated after so many years! In fact, this is rather a good thing, proving that our pond environment is not yet irreparable. When we don't have moss and bugs in our ponds one day, it will be a bad thing!

A prairie with grasses that hold the sand in place, sheep that graze on it, and wolves that hunt it, can't do without either!

Risk #3: The Risk of Greed

Greed is a bad word, but it is really due to human nature, and there is no way for everyone to avoid it! I feel more and more that raising crabs today is like gambling, and the people involved are betting more and more! High-priced seedlings, special drugs to take advantage of the opportunity to invade, is to seize our want to make a lot of money mentality! Whoever's family made 20,000 mu profit last year, whoever's family could sell more than 100 yuan for 1 catty last year ..... Reminds me of when I was in school like the college entrance exams, there are only 1-2 top students who can get into Tsinghua and Peking University, and most of them are still accompanied by students! So most people with mediocre qualifications like me don't study anymore? No more school? Of course not, not only the first test is the meaning of reading, learning experience will also be rewarded! That's why it's important to lower your requirements and standards appropriately! Think about it, I've lost money before, so it's good that I'm preserving my capital this year! I earned some labor last year, then I earn an extra 50,000 dollars back this year is also very satisfied, right?

We do not deny that the benefits of the case is particularly outstanding, but we also need to be rational to see how much probability in the end can do! As if we go to buy lottery tickets, as long as 2 dollars, everyone has the hope of winning 5 million! But how many of us can win? I'm afraid we can't even touch it once in a lifetime.

The pursuit of turnover, turnover, input more and more big, the mind is more and more anxious, a mistake, a full plate of loss! This is the risk of greed ....

"There is no constant winner in crab farming!" You must make money year after year, and the minimum requirement is not to lose money! This will form an effective accumulation of wealth and our crab farming can continue...