Second, soybean oil futures exchange and trading code
Soybean oil futures exchange: Dalian Commodity Exchange, trading code: Y.Third, soybean oil futures standard contract
Fourth, soybean oil futures prices have what influences
(a) the supply of soybean oil 1, soybean supply soybean oil as a downstream product of soybean processing, soybean supply more or less directly determines the supply of soybean oil, the normal situation, the increase in supply of soybeans inevitably lead to an increase in the supply of soybean oil. There are two main sources of soybeans, one is domestic soybeans and the other is imported soybeans. (1) the supply of domestically produced soybeans China's Northeast and the Yellow River and Huaihuai areas are the main producing areas of soybeans, the harvest season is generally in September-October each year, a few months after the harvest is a concentrated period of soybean supply. In recent years, China's soybean production has remained at about 16 million tons, of which close to half of the soybean for pressing. (2) the international market supply China is the world's largest importer of soybeans, in recent years, China's annual imports of soybeans from the United States, Brazil and Argentina are more than 20 million tons. 2, soybean oil production Soybean oil current production is a variable that is subject to soybean supply, soybean crushing expected annualized expected returns, production costs and other factors. Generally speaking, in the case of other factors remain unchanged, there is a clear inverse relationship between soybean oil production and price, soybean oil production increased, the price is relatively low; soybean oil production decreased, the price is relatively high. 3, soybean oil import and export volume With the rapid development of China's economy, people's living standards continue to improve, soybean oil consumption increased year by year, the number of its imports are also raised year by year, soybean oil imports of changes in the domestic price of soybean oil in the influence of the growing. 2006, with the abolition of quotas for imported soybean oil, domestic and foreign soybean oil market will be integrated. In this way, the number of soybean oil imports of domestic soybean oil prices will further enhance the impact. 4, soybean oil stocks Soybean oil stocks are an important part of the supply, the amount of stock reflects the tightness of supply. In most cases, the shortage of inventory is the price increase, the inventory is full of price decline. Because soybean oil is not easy to long-term preservation characteristics, once the soybean oil stocks increase, soybean oil prices tend to go down. (B) the consumption of soybean oil 1, the domestic demand situation China is a large consumer of soybean oil. Domestic soybean oil consumption is growing at a high rate, maintaining an annual growth rate of more than 12%. 2, catering industry boom situation China's vegetable oil production and consumption ranks among the world's top. With the improvement of living standards of urban residents, the number of people dining out is increasing, the catering industry boom on the soybean oil demand is very obvious. (C) related commodities, alternative commodity prices 1, soybean prices The high and low soybean prices directly affect the production cost of soybean oil. Many of China's large-scale crushing enterprises choose to import soybeans as processing raw materials, making the number of imported soybean crushing far more than the number of domestic soybean crushing. Thus, the price of soybean oil is increasingly affected by the price of imported soybeans. Soybean crushing efficiency is one of the important factors in determining the supply of soybean oil. If the crushing efficiency of soybean processing plants has been low, then some manufacturers will stop production, thereby reducing the market supply of soybean oil. 2, soybean oil and soybean meal than the price relationship Soybean oil is a downstream product of soybeans, each ton of soybeans can be squeezed out of about 0.18 tons of soybean oil and 0.8 tons of soybean meal. The price of soybean oil and soybean meal are closely related. According to years of experience, most cases of high soybean meal prices, soybean oil prices will fall; soybean meal stagnation, soybean processing plants will reduce the operating rate, soybean oil production will be reduced, soybean oil prices tend to rise. 3, the price of soybean oil substitutes Soybean oil prices in addition to soybean and soybean meal prices have a high degree of correlation, canola oil, palm oil, peanut oil, cottonseed oil and other soybean oil substitutes for soybean oil prices also have a certain impact, if the soybean oil prices are too high, oil refineries or oil companies tend to use other vegetable oils as a substitute, which leads to a reduction in the demand for soybean oil, contributing to the drop in soybean oil prices. (D) the impact of agriculture, trade and food policy 1, agricultural policy national agricultural policy often affects the farmers to plant varieties of choice. Such as in recent years, the state through the adjustment of relevant industrial policies to guide farmers to increase the area of soybean sowing, thus directly increasing the production of domestic soybeans. 2004 May 1, after the implementation of a new vegetable oil standards, improve the quality of vegetable oil products and health and safety requirements, the new peroxide value and solvent residue index test. These policies on soybean oil prices have constituted a certain impact. 2, import and export trade policy From the past years, the national import and export trade policy changes for China's soybean oil import and export volume has a greater impact. For example: in 1994, the State Administration of Taxation to adjust the tariff rate of imported soybean oil, tariff rate from 20% to 13%, while peanut oil, palm oil and other vegetable oil tariff rates also appeared to varying degrees downward, resulting in soybean oil imports of vegetable oil, soybean oil and other imports of soybean oil, the supply of soybean oil increased rapidly. 3, food policy In recent years, with the avian influenza, mad cow disease and foot-and-mouth disease occurred one after another, as well as taking into account the impact of genetically modified food on human health, more and more countries to implement a new food policy. These new food policies have affected the consumer demand for soybean oil through their impact on the food and restaurant industry.V. Soybean oil futures related to the analysis of comments
1, soybean oil futures suitable for speculation According to the National Cereals and Oils Information Center's data, China's soybean oil consumption of 7.85 million tons in 2004/2005, 2005/2006 China's soybean oil consumption is expected to reach 8.23 million tons. If the price of about 5,000 yuan / ton is estimated, the soybean oil market size of about 40 billion. Compared with other varieties, the scale is obviously small. In addition, soybean oil is also susceptible to soybean supply and consumption of seasonal and not easy to store and other characteristics of the impact of the price is prone to cause frequent, Dafu fluctuations. 2, soybean oil is more sensitive to the economic environment As we all know, the commodity market is staging an unprecedented super bull market. From the crude oil series, non-ferrous metals series, gold and other precious metals series, all fell to record highs or in the historical high zone. This is mainly due to strong economic growth, the depreciation of the US dollar, the global policy of low expected annualized interest rates and so on. Inflationary expectations and the entire commodity market bullish atmosphere infected, many analysts (and not even a lack of investment gurus) more optimistic about this year's agricultural market, the reason is that most of the agricultural products in the history of low prices. In my opinion, prone to long market, with two major characteristics, the first is China's net imports of commodities, the second is the economy, financial sensitive commodities. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the consumption of soybean oil by urban and rural residents in China is increasing with GDP growth. And the consumption of urban and rural areas is amplified in parallel with the progress of urbanization and industrialization in China. It is expected that the per capita consumption of soybean oil in China will reach 9.7 kilograms by 2015, an increase of 71% from 2005, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%. China's soybean oil imports are expected to maintain an average annual rate of 6.4% from 2006 to 2015, and imports are expected to reach 4.65 million tons in 2015, an increase of 86% over 2005. The proportion of imported soybean oil in the current year's soybean oil consumption will increase year by year, and is expected to reach 32.2% in 2015. In the overall agricultural products to the economy, the financial response to the premise of slow, soybean oil belongs to the agricultural products in the relatively sensitive varieties, and the need for a large number of imports.