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New grain is not on the market prices rise first, wheat after rice will also be a large number of feed replacement
Despite the fact that there is still nearly a month to go before the new wheat is listed, we also mentioned in our report yesterday that the main parties in the market have already begun to lock in the new wheat in advance by way of pre-purchase.

From the news we have received so far, some of the new locked wheat prices are concentrated in more than 1.4 yuan, of which a batch of new wheat price of 2,900 yuan/tonne recently booked by the Anhui branch of the CCSB through bidding, with the price of each catty reaching 1.45 yuan.

In fact, we have mentioned in the previous broadcast, the current distance from the listing of new corn is still nearly 5 months, the total demand for the number of corn is about 117 million tons, according to the current market supply, even with a large number of imports of corn, sorghum, barley, etc., the market supply and demand situation is expected to remain poor.

In this context, if you want to make wheat food supply and demand is not affected, the purchase price is only higher than corn in order to limit the amount of wheat in the feed, so as to maintain the balance of wheat supply and demand.

And just in time for the May Day vacation, we received another news from the official.

According to the news from the National Grain Trade Center, the low price of rice auction after May 1 will appear to be a large downward adjustment, and the earlier the year, the lower the base price of the larger, only the 2020 production of early indica rice was raised by 35 yuan / ton.

We know, before the paddy also have through the directional trading way to the feed field, but mainly overdue storage of paddy, and now in the corn prices continue to run high, and there is a further rise in the background, reduce the paddy auction reserve price, undoubtedly let the paddy flow to the feed field to provide the convenience of the conditions.

Additionally, according to the current minimum price of 2380 yuan / ton of rice, has been far lower than the current corn market 2900 yuan mainstream offer.

In addition, we also note that the current auction of paddy is all for grain after 2018, which also indicates that China's overdue storage of paddy from 2017 and before may have been consumed under the drive to de-stock.

But that doesn't mean the rice market will be tight in supply as a result.

On the one hand, according to the state-arranged paddy auction, after lowering the price, the number of auctions has been sharply reduced from the initial weekly put 1.8 million tons to 0.9 million tons; on the other hand, it is, rice as the domestic storage of the highest varieties, only the provisional storage inventory is still currently about 140 million tons, equivalent to 78% of the annual output.

In addition, after entering May, the southern new season rice will usher in a wide range of listing market.

In addition to the possibility of routine substitution of rice to corn feed, we also note a problem.

According to China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development's latest announcement of the first batch of 2022 Agricultural Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) Safety Certificate Production and Application Approval List, four genetically modified (GMO) corn varieties researched and developed by Hangzhou Ruifeng, China Seed Group, and other enterprises were again approved, and the corn transgenic breeding technology is still in the process of accelerating.

And from the current development of the domestic aquaculture industry, the first quarter due to the large inventory, consumption is less than expected and other impacts, resulting in a number of hog farming enterprises, including Henan Makin, Zhengbang Technology, Wen's shares, including losses, including Zhengbang Technology average head loss is more than 1,000 yuan / head.

But since late April, with the national central reserve of frozen meat storage work to promote, as well as the implementation of measures such as the enterprise since the reduction of capacity, pork prices have appeared rare continuous rise in the market, the whole breeding situation is improving.

We look at the international market, the current Indonesian palm oil issue continues to make the global food and oil market headache.

It is reported that Indonesia has announced the conditions for resumption of exports, that is, when Indonesia's national bulk cooking oil prices fall back to 14,000 rupiah per liter, the export ban can be lifted.

And currently, cooking oil in Jakarta sells for Rp 19,000 to Rp 20,000 per liter, or about Rp 8.7 per liter.

It is worth noting that previously for palm oil production in Southeast Asia, from the West has been accused of forced labor, ecological damage and other problems, and as a result of pressure on Indonesia and Malaysia to limit the scale of their palm oil exports.

Just this past mid-April, Italian chocolate giant Ferrero used this as a reason to stop using palm oil from the Sime Darby plantation.

But now that everything has been reversed by Indonesia's palm oil export ban, more and more countries are beginning to worry about future supply.

And in response to the accusations of the US, Europe and other western countries on the palm oil market, sources from Malaysia said the US and Europe are trying to protect their own soybean and soybean oil industries, and that's why they keep on discriminating and suppressing palm oil and related products from Malaysia and Indonesia.

Data shows that the world's traditional four major grain merchants are all U.S. and European companies, which in the traditional soybean, wheat and corn market occupies an absolutely dominant position, and gradually formed to the Chicago Board of Trade as the center of the global pricing mechanism of agricultural commodities, including China's food imports, including our country is difficult to bypass the four traditional multinational grain merchants.

And we also note that in the current round of global commodity prices in the rising tide, mostly involving wheat, corn, soybeans and other varieties, while Southeast Asia's well-supplied rice market, is relatively mild.

But ultimately, it is the low-income countries that will suffer the most from rising global food prices.

News from the African Development Bank shows that Africa needs to be fully prepared for a global food crisis, with some African countries being hit hard by regional conflicts, climate change and epidemics, and the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict having far-reaching effects on the world, including Africa, where rising energy and fertilizer prices are driving up African food prices.

Meanwhile, Russian wheat is struggling to find buyers due to Western sanctions.

When Russian wheat does find a buyer, it is currently sold at a discount of $10-$20 per ton.

Meanwhile, in order to guarantee a smooth transaction, Russian sellers also need to bear additional costs such as transportation and insurance, which makes their loss of income from grain exported overseas as high as 70 U.S. dollars per ton.

But for Europe and the United States and other countries, the current is the best time to sell grain, because the global wheat and other grain prices are in the highest position in the history of the region.

From the four multinational grain traders announced the annual report, 2021 fiscal year ADM achieved the best performance in 120 years, realizing operating income of $85.249 billion, up 32%; Bunge in 2021 fiscal year to achieve net sales revenue of $59.15 billion, an increase of 43% year-on-year growth, net profit of $2.08 billion, an increase of 81% year-on-year; Cargill 2021 realized total revenues of $134.4 billion in fiscal year 2021, up 17% year-over-year.

Louis D'Arcy was $49.6 billion, up 48%, and profit after tax was $697 million, up 82%.