According to field visits and information analysis, the recent epidemic situation is only distributed in some areas, and the morbidity and mortality are not higher than in previous years. Therefore, the author believes that the local epidemic is not enough to affect the national pig price, at best, it is only the fuse of the current round of pig price decline. This round of pig price collapse should be closely related to the massive diarrhea last winter and this spring.
From 65438+February last year to March this year, severe piglet diarrhea broke out from north to south, causing a large number of piglets to die in a short time in many pig farms. The mortality rate of piglets in individual farms (especially piglets under 10 day) is close to 100%, resulting in many sows without piglets. In addition, the disease also caused stillbirth and miscarriage of individual sows (especially newborn sows), thus breaking the original production rhythm. Therefore, in a short time, a large number of sows are weaned, bred and produced at the same time. The result of this batch is that a large number of pigs will be listed at the same time after 10. In addition, this summer is the most serious epidemic year since 2006, and the corresponding piglets have a high survival rate, and their listing rate is rare in recent years, which is the main reason for this round of pig price decline.
The last round of diarrhea aggravated the shortage of live pigs from June to September, so the pig price has been running at a historical high level for a long time. Coupled with the rising trend of labor and feed prices, farmers are optimistic that the pig price will remain above 18 yuan/kg before the Spring Festival, and 9- 10 is the most suitable time for raising pigs in a year. Therefore, many farmers prefer to raise "super pigs" to get more profits. The recent "blowout" listing of pigs, coupled with the eagerness of "super-large pigs", accelerated the plunge in pig prices.