Under the two positive effects, the profit space of farmers has increased.
So in the next stage, will feed prices continue to fall? It depends on the price of corn and soybean meal.
There is a great demand for official escorts. Can corn break through 1.5 yuan?
Recently, the rising area of corn price has expanded, and the overall price is between 2600-2900 yuan/ton, which varies from region to region.
There are two main reasons for the continuous increase in corn prices:
The rise in the price of wheat and other grains has pushed up the price of corn.
2. China Grain Reserve recently held several corn auctions in Northeast China. Fortunately, China Grain Storage has raised the auction price to a state of basic balance with the current market price, which also reveals that there is still room for corn to rise.
For this year's corn price, in fact, the government has given a "stability-oriented" protection policy before, and even clearly pointed out that it is necessary to support a reasonable increase in corn prices.
This year, China reduced international corn imports and raised tariffs in some countries. In the final analysis, it raises the threshold for foreign corn to enter the China market.
On the other hand, the recent relatively tight supply of corn in the market has also made some deep processing enterprises more anxious. In addition, the price of corn put by China Grain Reserve in North China has risen sharply recently, which has led to a further increase in corn prices.
On the other hand, the pig industry, the biggest source of corn consumption this year, is at the peak of production capacity. It is estimated that the output of live pigs will exceed 700 million this year, 654.38+0.5 billion more than the previous year. This increase should not be underestimated, which will directly open the corn consumption market, which is also a major reason for the support of corn prices this year.
Generally speaking, this year's international environment has brought some support to domestic corn prices, and the domestic corn gap has further expanded. Therefore, some insiders believe that corn still has a chance to hit 1.5 yuan this year. What do you think of this?
Demand weakens, and soybean meal can no longer be "proud"
Today, the national average price of soybean meal (feed raw material) is 475 1 yuan/ton, which varies greatly across the country.
The highest price in Zhejiang is 5 100 yuan/ton; The lowest price is Qinghai 38 13 yuan/ton.
I have to say that with the weakening of some international factors, soybean meal has lost its breath of some time ago recently. Today, the price of soybean meal is mainly weak and volatile, mainly maintaining between 4300-4600 yuan/ton.
In the short term, with the increase of soybean arrival in Hong Kong, the soybean shortage in oil plants has eased. With the recent continuous release of nearly 800,000 tons of policy soybeans, the price of soybean meal is under pressure and there is still room for further decline.
In the long run, China's aquaculture industry is determined to "use less beans" and "reduce soybean dependence", and animal husbandry is also exploring more alternatives to reduce soybean meal, and has achieved certain results. The consumption of soybean meal in China has been declining in the past two years, so the demand for soybean meal is also decreasing in the future, so the price of soybean meal does not have the support of rising in the long run.