According to the latest news, on July 27th, the average market price dropped to about 10.6 yuan, and the highest drop in a single day was close to that in 0.5 yuan, reaching 1.25 yuan per catty from the beginning of the month, and dropped sharply 10.6% after the skyrocketing. The market continues to increase risks, and the decline in pig prices is related to changes in both supply and demand in the market.
Judging from the whole hog market price in July, the overall trend was "first rising and then falling". By the end of July, the market is experiencing a continuous decline in fundamentals, mainly due to the following reasons:
(1) Affected by the high price in the early stage, the highest profit per head of farmers is close to 1000 yuan, surpassing 500 yuan, and the price of live pigs has increased more than expected. However, in the case of price rebound in the off-season, farmers want to reduce the losses in the early stage and increase their reluctance to sell. By the end of the month, the market volume increased, and centralized slaughter led to an increase in supply. Originally, the sluggish consumption of pork also led to a continuous decline in prices.
(2) The market demand side is bleak, and the decrease in the operating rate of slaughter enterprises leads to serious market price depression.
July should be three days, the demand for meat food decreases, while the demand for light vegetables increases. At present, due to the irrationality of pigs, the price of pork continues to rise, and the price of pork in some areas even exceeds that of 20 yuan per catty. In the case of insufficient consumption, the operating rate of downstream slaughter enterprises decreased by 20.47%, which increased the pressure on slaughter enterprises and made it more difficult to turn losses. Moreover, in the past 8 weeks, the operating rate of slaughtering has been declining continuously, and some pigs are not enthusiastic about slaughtering.
(3) In the third quarter, with the continuous increase in the amount of supplementary pens by farmers in the early stage, the supply of live pigs decreased when sows were kept in stock and changed production, especially in the second quarter, the enthusiasm of piglets for supplementary pens increased, and the secondary fattening increased. In the middle and late period of the third quarter, the pressure of breeding pens gradually decreased, the market supply and demand changed, and farmers panicked, which increased the downward trend of live pigs.
Gradually entering August, the price of live pigs changed. Personally, with the decrease of sow stock, the supply of live pigs will be affected in August, and the supply of value will be relatively tight at both ends, especially after entering September, with the increase of pork consumption and market curing, the price of live pigs will rise to a certain extent. With the decrease of sow stock in August and the tightening of fertilizer market, the price will rebound to some extent?
Based on the above analysis, I personally think that the pig price will fluctuate sideways in the next August, and the pig price will hover above 10 yuan per catty. What do you think of this? Welcome to leave a message for discussion! Thank you.