Since the middle of14th century, Ukraine has been ruled successively by the Golden Horde, the Kingdom of Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. In the Great Northern War (1700- 172 1), it was divided by other forces. /kloc-in the 0/9th century, most of Ukraine belonged to the Russian Empire. During the chaotic period of the First World War and the Russian Revolution, Ukraine was temporarily independent from 19 17 to 192 1. After the civil war in Ukraine, it was forced to merge into the Soviet Union and lost its independence. However, during the Soviet period, Ukraine's own development ushered in a golden age, and it was the most developed and richest region in the powerful Soviet Union. With the end of the Cold War, Ukraine has once again gained the historical opportunity of independent statehood.
At that time, Ukraine was full of longing for the future. The Soviet era was a granary, and the overall living standard was much higher than other parts of the Soviet Union. In addition, heavy industry and military industry are also very developed. Even now, it is the second largest military force in Europe after Russia. China's first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, came from Ukraine. With this advantage, Ukraine has got rid of the burden of the former Soviet Union and the successful democratic system in the West, and it is believed that Ukraine will soon become the new Switzerland in Europe.
Unexpectedly, however, after democratization, Ukraine's economy was disastrous and its living standards dropped sharply. Even if other areas of the Commonwealth of Independent States resume growth, Ukraine is still mired in debt-up to now, its foreign debt has reached more than 60 billion US dollars, more than one-third of the total economic output, and its foreign exchange reserves can only be barely maintained for two months. Today, a country that was once so rich and had a per capita GDP of just over $3,000 belongs to the third world. And corruption in Ukraine is extremely serious. Transparency International directly rated the Ukrainian economic and political system as the most corrupt in the world, ranking above 140, so that Tymoshenko envied China's measures to combat corruption when she was prime minister. Such a country naturally becomes one of the regions with the worst investment environment in the world (according to the World Bank's 20 12 investment environment ranking, Ukraine ranks 137 among 185 countries and regions).
What they didn't expect was that democracy did not bring a stable political and social environment to Ukraine. On the contrary, political crises that swept across the country were staged one after another. Western democratic theory has always advocated that democratic system can provide the most stable power legitimacy, but it is an extravagant hope in Ukraine. Of course, there are still many democratic bubbles punctured by the Ukrainian crisis. After the Chongqing incident, many liberals pretended to regret that such an attractive politician would never end up like this under a democratic system, so democracy is also protecting politicians. However, the political leaders of Ukraine have been poisoned, imprisoned by unwarranted prisoners, and the legally elected President Yanukovych, who is currently wanted.
In just over 20 years, we can transform the richest area of the former Soviet Union, which dominated the world, into this appearance, and we have to marvel at the power of western democracy. No wonder the West is so keen to hand this system over to China (although the motives of China liberals at home and abroad are puzzling).
The tragedy caused by Ukraine's move towards democracy has more important internal and external factors besides the universal law that the democratic transformation will inevitably experience turmoil and pay a heavy price.
The western and eastern Ukraine have different historical origins, and the eastern part is closely related to Russia, and has deep feelings for the historical origin of the two nationalities-the Russian Principality in Kiev; The western region used to be the territory of Roman Empire and Habsburg Empire, and it has a strong "European complex". Moreover, a considerable part of western Ukraine was newly acquired after World War II, and local residents have resistance to integration with Russia. It is precisely because of this historical factor that Ukraine has formed pro-Russian and pro-Western factions. The two sides are incompatible with each other and cannot compromise at all. When the current President Yanukovych decided to turn to Russia (he would not speak Ukrainian until he was 50), pro-Western factions not only protested immediately, but even the western region simply declared independence. When pro-Western factions seized power by force, pro-Russian Crimea also declared independence. Obviously, in a place that knows nothing about the future of the country, if a democratic system is to be implemented, this can only be the end. In other words, democracy can't solve a country's major differences at all.
Geopolitically, Ukraine is sandwiched between Russia and the West. Each party has fully penetrated into the democratic system of Ukraine and supported its favorite political forces. As a result, after democratization, Ukraine began to stage revolutions, such as the famous Orange Revolution. Obviously, a country caught in the game of big powers is more likely to be manipulated by big powers when implementing democracy. Due to the irreconcilable interests of great powers, the Ukrainian nation itself is killing each other and uncompromising. That's why Yushchenko was poisoned, Tymoshenko was put in prison, and now Yanukovych is wanted for being overthrown by a coup.
At present, Ukraine has two ways out. First, give up the democratic system like the west and find a path that suits you. Here, both Russia and China can be regarded as role models. Russia woke up from the ten-year democratic tragedy and created the strongman Putin model under the shell of democratic system, which not only realized the political and social stability of the country, but also quickly restored and developed the economy. Although Russia is no longer recognized as a democratic country by the west, it is really insignificant compared with national stability, resumption of development and improvement of people's living standards. Not to mention China, the post-reform system initiated by Deng Xiaoping: changing people regularly without changing the party is not only different from western and Arab societies, but also unprecedented. Of course, the economic miracle created by this has also become the best footnote of this system.
Second, if Ukraine doesn't want to or can't give up its democratic system, it can only split into two countries. The reason is very simple, the internal contradictions are insoluble, and the external game is also a zero-sum game. Democracy magnifies these two factors. It turned out that in this crisis, Yanukovych and the opposition party reached a compromise and signed a peace agreement. The result was overthrown by the opposition in just one day. Perhaps the elite of the political party wants to compromise, but the west does not agree, and neither do the people. The result can only be a life-and-death situation
If Ukraine cannot do the above two points, then today's Ukraine is tomorrow's Ukraine. This time, even if the opposition successfully overthrew Yanukovych and won the subsequent general election, the west in crisis could not provide large-scale economic assistance. As long as the Ukrainian economy continues to deteriorate, pro-Russian factions will make a comeback with popular dissatisfaction. This is how pro-Western Yushchenko was ousted. Of course, even the pro-western factions are not United. Shortly after Yushchenko became president after the Orange Revolution, he broke with the alliance and Tymoshenko, the most important supporter. Later, in June 2009, he said: "I believe that as long as Tymoshenko still sits firmly on the throne of the Prime Minister every week, it will lead the country to disaster. Because Tymoshenko is a crisis, a crisis of everything. "
Today's Ukrainian economy is highly dependent on Russia, and the natural gas debt alone is as high as 654.38+0.7 billion US dollars. Ukraine, which is in urgent need of blood transfusion, can't borrow money from the west. It wanted to join the European Union, but at that time, it not only didn't get any assistance (only 65.438+0.5 billion euros in subsidies), but also faced with extremely high entry threshold and high price. If the opposition is in power, Russia will inevitably put pressure on the economy, and the Ukrainian economic crisis will quickly approach the critical point. Economic crisis will inevitably lead to political crisis, and new turmoil will be staged.
What needs to be pointed out here is that the west only regards Ukraine as a tool to deal with Russia, while Russia regards Ukraine as an important geostrategic buffer. Therefore, the west will not give Ukraine real money, and even the chaos in Ukraine is in the interest of the west. The role played by the West is "more than enough to defeat Russia". Russia will go all out for its own interests, otherwise it will not agree to Ukraine's measures of delaying debt repayment, paying 654.38 billion US dollars in aid price and reducing the price of natural gas by 30%.
As a China person, I care about the experience of the Ukrainian people with compassion, and at the same time I have to look back on myself. I don't want to see the Ukrainian people fall into the chaos of blood and fire, but the current situation does provide China with great enlightenment and opportunities.
First of all, the Ukrainian chaos once again proved the correctness of China's choice to go its own way and create its own model. Its democratic experiments for more than 20 years have failed to provide the so-called most stable legitimacy, and some have only long-term political, economic and social turmoil and opposition; It also failed to resolve the differences within the country, but became a catalyst for contradictions and conflicts, and the unity of the country was threatened; Instead of promoting economic development, it has become an obstacle; Instead of bringing a clean government, it has become the most corrupt country in the world. It also failed to provide political protection for politicians, even the most basic humanitarian treatment: Tymoshenko was abused for a long time in prison and could only sit in a wheelchair after he was released from prison.
If anyone wants to defend this system, move it to China, and look at Ukraine first.
Secondly, the Ukrainian crisis once again pushed the West and Russia to the front line of confrontation. Originally, since Putin took office, he has been opposed to the West on issues such as Syria, Iran and Snowden. Now Ukraine has been added, and the contradictions between the two sides have further intensified and confronted. The confrontation between Russia and the West has intensified. On the one hand, they are no longer able to "take care of" China; on the other hand, they need China's support. The pressure on China's external environment will be relatively relieved. In particular, today's China is facing hostile provocation from Japan due to its rapid rise (I'm afraid Japan hopes to change the internal political trend of China through an external conflict and interrupt China's modernization efforts again, just like 120 years ago).
Finally, Ukraine, which is suffering between two external forces, also needs third-party forces. In today's world, apart from Russian, only China has the ability to give economic assistance. Of course, China's assistance is conditional, but compared with Russian and western countries, this kind of assistance is very small: it only transfers or provides military technology. Another point is equally important. The Ukrainian crisis once again shows the double standards of the West. Not long ago, similar large-scale protests took place in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Therefore, the west has always stood on the side of the government and supported the strong restoration of order. But the same thing happened in Ukraine. The West sided with the protesters, and even the opposition party gained political power through illegal means, which was quickly recognized by Europe and the United States. Since Ukraine has adopted the western democratic system, the change of political power can only be a vote, and any other way is illegal. Obviously, universal values such as democracy can also be traded in the face of interests. Only when this case is opened will Ukraine become the second Thailand: no one believes in political power in the ballot box, only street violence.
Of course, looking at Ukraine from a distance is not to expect China to take a chestnut from the fire, but to firmly put on his shoes and go his own way. Ten years later, the success or failure of different road choices will be an undeniable outcome. Perhaps by then, China will no longer need to consider whether the international environmental change is a danger or an opportunity, a benefit or a disadvantage. Because the so-called international environment is only China.