First, rapeseed oil overview

Rapeseed oil is commonly known as rapeseed oil (hereinafter commonly known as rapeseed oil), is the seeds of rapeseed (rapeseed, hereinafter referred to as rapeseed) squeezed from the transparent or translucent form of the liquid, the color of the golden yellow or brownish yellow. Rapeseed oil is one of the main edible oils in China, and the third largest vegetable oil in the world, and soybean oil, sunflower oil, palm oil together, and listed as the world's four major oils and fats.

Rapeseed oil has a high oil content, up to 35%-45%, and its main use is to extract oil for consumption.

In addition to direct consumption of rapeseed oil, it has a wide range of industrial uses: it can be used to make margarine and other foodstuffs, and as a lubricant in the steel casting industry. General vegetable oil in machinery, rubber, chemicals, plastics, paints, textiles, soap and medicine have a wide range of uses. The protein content of vegetable meal is as high as 36%-38%, and its nutritional value is similar to that of soybean meal, which is a good concentrate feed and widely used in freshwater aquaculture. In addition, in recent years, the rise of the biodiesel project so that the proportion of vegetable oil into biodiesel increased year by year, becoming an ideal substitute for petroleum diesel.

Second, the market overview

1, the supply of rapeseed oil

The world rapeseed oil production is mainly concentrated in the European Union, China, India and Canada, the four countries combined production accounted for 82.79% of global production. According to USDA's December 2012 report, the global rapeseed oil production in 11/12 was 24.31 million tons, of which, the EU accounted for 38.16%, ranking first, China, Canada and India accounted for 22.3%, 11.96%, 10.37% ranking second, third and fourth respectively. China's vegetable oil production is mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, with a national share of more than 80%.

World rapeseed oil production in 2010/11 and 2011/12 continued to increase and set new record highs. According to the USDA, global rapeseed oil production in 2010/11 reached 23.69 million tons, and in 2011/12 reached 24.31 million tons.

Over the past seven years, world rapeseed oil production has continued to grow rapidly, mainly due to the increasing demand, especially since 2002/03, with the continuous rise in crude oil prices, the rapid development of the global biodiesel industry, especially the rapid increase in the number of countries in the European Union that use rapeseed oil to produce biodiesel, resulting in the increasing demand for global rapeseed oil industrial consumption. At the same time, with the development of the global economy and the continuous improvement of people's living standards, the consumption of rapeseed oil is also increasing, the global domestic consumption of rapeseed oil has been showing an increasing trend.

2, rapeseed oil demand

World rapeseed oil consumption also has the characteristics of concentration, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture report 11/12 years, the world demand for rapeseed oil 23.76 million tons, of which the European Union, China, India, respectively, accounted for 39.41%, 25.62% and 10.31% of the three regions accounted for a total of 75.33% of global demand. Although Canada's rapeseed oil production accounted for the world's third, but very little in terms of demand, is the world's main exporter of rapeseed oil, diverted to China, the EU, India and other countries.

World rapeseed oil consumption has been increasing in 2002/03 world rapeseed oil domestic consumption of only 12.36 million tons, 2004/05 year for the first time exceeded 15 million tons, reaching 15.56 million tons; 2008/09 year again more than 20 million tons, reaching 20.31 million tons; 2011/12 world rapeseed oil domestic consumption reached 23.76 million tons, a record for nine consecutive years. For 9 consecutive years, world domestic consumption of rapeseed oil reached 23.76 million tons in 2011/12, a record. 2000/01-2011/12 12-year period, world domestic consumption of rapeseed oil increased by 77.08%, with an average annual growth rate of 5.33%.

The significant growth of global rapeseed oil domestic consumption is mainly due to the rapid increase of rapeseed oil industrial consumption. 2002/03 global rapeseed oil industrial consumption of only 1.33 million tons, 2007/08 exceeded 5 million tons, reaching 5.16 million tons; in 2009/10 exceeded 7 million tons after the start of the increase stopped. 2011/12 global rapeseed oil industrial consumption of 7.36 million tons. 2000/01-2011/12 12 years, the world rapeseed oil domestic consumption increased by 77.08%, with an average annual growth rate of 5.33%. During the 12-year period from 2000/01 to 2011/12, the industrial consumption of rapeseed oil in the world increased by 542.79%, with an average annual growth rate of 18.43%, much higher than the growth rate of rapeseed oil consumption. Global consumption of rapeseed oil was 12.23 million tons in 2000/01, and increased to 16.4 million tons in 2011/12, a cumulative increase of 33.79% over the 12-year period, with an average annual increase of only 2.68%.

Third, rapeseed oil exchanges and code

rapeseed oil futures exchange: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange

trading code: OI

Fourth, rapeseed oil futures contracts

V. The main factors affecting the volatility of rapeseed oil futures prices

1, the international market supply situation: Canada, the EU production status.

2, the domestic supply of rapeseed oil: domestic weather conditions in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and the planting area.

3, imports: China's source of imports is Canada, Canada's imports of how much of the Chinese vegetable oil market has a greater impact.

4, the international and domestic market demand factors, especially in recent years, the European Union used to produce biodiesel vegetable oil usage increased year by year, the vegetable oil market price to form a certain support.

5, the impact of alternative commodity prices: soybean oil and palm oil supply and demand will have an impact on the price of vegetable oil.

6, agriculture, trade, food policy related to rapeseed oil

7, the impact of international futures market prices: the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT ) soybean oil trading and Canada's Lake Winnipeg rapeseed futures have a greater impact on the market.

Six, the main source of market information

Canadian canola futures market, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange canola, rapeseed, rapeseed oil, meal market, the national grain auction market.

The USDA report, the National Grain and Oil Information Center monthly report, the Development and Reform Commission, Grain Bureau related policies, the monthly 10th release of China Customs import and export data, etc..