A slight change in the wrist will cause a drastic change in the whip tail! There are also many things.
Some subtle changes
Great influence in the future! From the supplier's point of view, the bullwhip effect is the result of risk transfer and speculation of suppliers at all levels in the supply chain, which will lead to disorderly production, increased inventory, increased cost, blocked access, market confusion and increased risk. Therefore, if properly solved, risks can be avoided, reduced and increased. Enterprises can carry out comprehensive management from the following six aspects. 1. Ordering hierarchical management From the perspective of suppliers, not all suppliers (wholesalers and retailers) have the same status and role. According to Pareto law, they have some general sellers, some important sellers and some key sellers. The proportion of key sellers is about 20%, but they have achieved 80% sales. Therefore, suppliers should classify suppliers according to certain standards, classify different suppliers into different grades, and implement hierarchical management of their orders, such as satisfying the orders of general suppliers, comprehensively managing the orders of important suppliers, and perfecting the management of the orders of key suppliers, so as to reduce the mutation probability by controlling key suppliers and important suppliers; In the case of supply shortage, priority can be given to ensuring orders from key manufacturers; Suppliers can also eliminate unqualified sellers at the right time through hierarchical management strategy to maintain the unity of sellers and the standardization of channel management. This method has been well applied in some excellent enterprises, and the effect is obvious. For example, 3M Company provides perfect ordering service for its key customers. In order to improve service quality and ensure key customers, 3M Company implemented a service measure called "Platinum Club". 3M Company has implemented various unexpected safeguard measures for Platinum Club members, so that they can obtain the required inventory and complete the orders of Platinum customers when the main supply locations are out of stock. These protective measures include transferring inventory from secondary storage locations and searching inventory in other warehouse facilities of 3M Company around the world. As soon as these emergency measures are put in place, direct delivery will be arranged using advanced transportation services. Even under special circumstances, 3M company will borrow the goods it sells to supply "Platinum" customers. The purpose of this is to ensure that it can provide perfect ordering service for key customers under any circumstances, enhance the confidence of sellers, create a good market atmosphere and reduce the amplification of ordering demand. 2. One way to strengthen warehouse management and share inventory responsibility reasonably is to enable upstream enterprises to obtain the real demand information of their downstream enterprises, so that both upstream and downstream enterprises can make supply and demand plans based on the same original data. For example, IBM, Hewlett-Packard, Apple and other companies explicitly require dealers to feedback the information of products in the central warehouse of retailers. Although the information is not as comprehensive as the information of the retailer's point of sale, it is much better than the information of lost goods after delivery. Using modern information technology such as electronic data interchange (EDI) is also an important way to solve the "bullwhip effect". For example, Dell has formed an efficient information network through Inter/Intra, telephone and fax. When the order is generated, it can be transmitted to Dell Information Center, which will break it down into subtasks. It is distributed to regional centers through inter-enterprise and inter-enterprise information networks, assembled according to Dell electronic orders, and delivered on time according to the schedule (usually no more than 48 hours), so that ordering, manufacturing and supply can be completed in one stop, effectively preventing the bullwhip effect. Joint inventory management strategy is an advanced method to share inventory responsibility reasonably and prevent demand variation and amplification. In the inventory environment managed by the supplier, the seller's large inventory does not need advance payment, which will not increase the pressure of capital turnover. On the contrary, a large amount of inventory will also play the role of financing, improve rate of return on capital, and even restrain suppliers. Therefore, it will greatly increase the demand for orders and increase the risk of suppliers. Joint inventory management is a risk-sharing inventory management model, which is modified to balance the rights and responsibilities of suppliers and sellers. It establishes a reasonable sharing mechanism of inventory cost, transportation cost and competitive inventory loss between suppliers and sellers, and transforms all the responsibilities of suppliers into some responsibilities of sellers, so that both parties bear the costs and risks and make use of the benefits, which is beneficial to the balance of costs, risks and benefits, thus effectively restraining the "bullwhip effect" 3. Shorten delivery time and outsource services. Generally speaking, the shorter the lead time, the more accurate the order quantity, so encouraging shortening the lead time is a good way to solve the "bullwhip effect". According to Wal-Mart's survey, if the goods are purchased 26 weeks in advance, the demand forecast error is 40%, if the goods are purchased 16 weeks in advance, the demand forecast error is 20%, and if the goods are purchased at the beginning of the sales season, the demand forecast error is 10%. Through the application of modern information system, sales information and cargo flow can be obtained in time, and at the same time, real-time demand ordering can be realized through multi-frequency and small-batch joint distribution, further reducing the error of demand forecasting. The use of outsourcing services, such as third-party logistics, can also shorten the delivery time, so that small orders can be operated on a large scale, so that sellers do not have to order a large number from the same supplier at one time. Although this will increase the extra processing cost and management cost, as long as the cost saved is greater than the extra cost, this method is still worth applying. 4. When the game behavior under the situation of avoiding shortage is faced with insufficient supply, the supplier can limit the supply according to the customer's previous sales records, instead of limiting the supply according to the ordered quantity, so as to prevent the seller from exaggerating the ordered quantity in order to obtain more supply. General Motors has done this for a long time, and now many big companies, such as Hewlett-Packard, have begun to adopt this method. When the supply exceeds the demand, the seller lacks understanding of the supplier's supply situation, and the degree of game is easy to intensify. Using the information about the seller's supply capacity and inventory status can alleviate their worries, thus preventing them from participating in the game to some extent. However, * * * cannot completely solve the problem with this information. If suppliers help sellers make orders before the peak season, they can better design production capacity, arrange production schedule and meet the demand of products, thus reducing the chance of "bullwhip effect". 5. Refer to historical data, make appropriate reduction and correction, and send them in batches. According to historical data and current environmental analysis, the supplier appropriately reduces the order quantity. At the same time, in order to ensure the demand, suppliers can use joint inventory and joint transportation to send in batches, and ensure the satisfaction of orders without increasing costs. 6. Advance the payment term and arrange the logistics distribution according to the payment proportion, which is a good way to eliminate the false high order quantity, because this method only takes the initial reservation quantity as a reference, and the specific supply is linked with payment, thus ensuring the double-loop management of order and distribution. The specific method of advance payment period is to divide the accounting period into several periods and pay at the end of each period (if a month is divided into three or four periods, each period is 10 day or 7 days); Giving preferential price to the initiative to pay back the money a few days before the end of the term will be beneficial to the project, and so on.