National agricultural policy favorable impact
Since the Development and Reform Commission announced the state grain in the Northeast to buy 1.5 million tons of soybean pricing of 3,700 yuan / ton, a strong inhibition of soybean prices in the Northeast to continue to decline, the recent soybean prices in Heilongjiang Province, there is a strong upward momentum, the soybean prices rose from the initial 1.60 yuan / jin to the current 1.70- 1.80 yuan / catty between the price of selected beans can generally reach 1.80 yuan or more, the purchase price of local oil mills has reached 1.88 yuan / catty, but the requirements are more stringent, the protein content should be more than 42%. The state's favored policy has improved the low market to a certain extent, injected vitality into the market, and at the same time improved the enthusiasm of grain farmers.
Negative impact - 1 million tons of state reserves to buy a drop in the bucket
This year, only the production of soybeans in the Heilongjiang region is as high as 13 million tons of soybeans, the state reserves of soybean purchases can be stabilized within a short period of time to stabilize the price of soybeans, to increase the state's ability to regulate the grain market. But some people think that only 1 million tons of state reserves to buy for the Heilongjiang soybean market, is like a drop in the bucket, can only play a phased support role, so that both supply and demand sides to temporarily restore market confidence, boost the role of market popularity. And can not completely restore the weak situation of the soybean market.
The country will raise tariffs on imported food
The 17th National Congress clearly put forward, the food industry is the economic development, social stability of the basic industries; is the important material foundation of social harmony and stability; food security directly affects the stability of the national political situation and long-term socio-economic development. At this meeting, the state focuses on, highly proposed to comprehensively promote the three rural industries; all efforts to the agricultural economy up, for farmers to generate income, close the distance between urban and rural incomes as the primary task.
It is understood that, in order to stabilize the domestic prices of agricultural products, the country will raise tariffs on imported food and a series of measures to stabilize food prices, control the normal order of the domestic food market, which also contributes to the upward trend of domestic food prices, showing the country's position and attitude towards food price stability.
Because of the international crude oil fell below $ 65 per barrel and caused the international shipping costs to fall, the current to the Chinese port of soybean duty-paid price of about 3600 yuan / ton. If the country to raise tariffs on imported soybeans information is true, then the price of imported soybeans will be higher than the current price of domestic soybeans.
International favorable factors - the Chinese government in the face of the financial crisis of a strong initiative
World countries are making every effort to rescue this credit crisis caused by the United States "financial storm. The global financial system is facing a new reshuffle! Financial stability, food security is the world can not ignore the problem, the Chinese government is to make a strong initiative to ensure food security in a stable and orderly manner. So the financial turmoil on China's recent food trends have little impact, which may also be the "darkness before the dawn", I have full confidence in the Chinese government to get rid of the crisis!
International unfavorable factors
The current global economic downturn will also affect China's soybean market to a certain extent, recently, with the continued decline in international crude oil prices, the price advantage of soybeans will be more and more obvious in the long term to Hong Kong. If the domestic soybean prices have been persistently high, some traders will turn their attention to the relatively cheap international soybeans. According to part of the business reaction, since the introduction of the relevant state policy to benefit the family, the domestic soybean prices rose nearly 12% compared to the original, so that they have to choose the price is slightly lower than some of the imported soybeans, in the policy after the release of just one week's time, Chinese buyers from abroad to order 1.0 - 1.5 million tons of soybeans, the number of nearly 4 times as many as the usual. This shows that the road to the rise of soybeans is so difficult.
Domestic favorable factors - Heilongjiang soybean purchase price up
Recently, some of the soybean oil companies in Heilongjiang have started production, soybean purchase price of about 1.88 yuan / catty, the requirements of crude protein in 42% or more, screening. Individual grain merchants purchase price also increased to 1.86 yuan / catty. Such a purchase price is more powerful to support the upward trend of Heilongjiang soybean.
Domestic unfavorable factors: extreme shrinkage of profits market demand is weak
Soybean demand enterprises are mainly oil mills and soybean deep processing enterprises, and from the current domestic market conditions, since May this year, the domestic soybean oil market has been in the downward wave of the road, resulting in most of the country's oil mills are in the red or even half of the state of shutdown, extreme shrinkage of profits. And the other side can pull the market demand of the farming industry, this year also suffered a heavy blow, pork prices also appeared this year's lowest value, the price of live pigs from 7, August 7 yuan fell to about 5 yuan now, so that the farmers' breeding enthusiasm frustrated, pig replenishment rate slipped, so the end of the national reserve purchase oil mills and the farming industry is difficult to play a supporting role in the price of soybeans
Farmers The favorable factors of the selling mentality
Nowadays, Chinese farmers' business consciousness is generally improved, and the degree of market grasp of the product is also gradually maturing. Because of the high cost of production materials at the beginning of the year, resulting in the doubling of planting costs, so now the selling heart is quite strong. Coupled with the recent release of the National Development and Reform Commission to 1.85 yuan / kg to buy 1.5 million tons of soybean grain storage plan; 0.92 yuan / kg of rice to buy 4 million tons of plans and other measures to benefit farmers, so that farmers have more backbone. State grain purchase plan to be maintained in January 2009, which also strengthened the determination of farmers to sell, while greatly supporting the firm trend of Heilongjiang soybean.
In summary, in the short term by the policy factors, China's soybean prices will be a steady trend, November with the beginning of the state reserves acquisition will appear a small peak price, later will return to stable.
It is also predicted that the possibility of China's domestically produced soybeans falling back before December 08 is extremely small, unless the world failed to save the world. If the country does not introduce new policies, in February 09 after the soybean prices will be according to the rules of the game in the market in the operation.
While the state minimum purchase price, but it quality in stabilizing the soybean market price, improve the farmers' planting enthusiasm, rather than simply increase the purchase price of soybeans, the state is more unlikely to allow food prices to appear a flavor of the extraordinary growth.
Farmers should always pay attention to the market situation and national policy changes, random should be convenient, grasp the opportunity to go out at the right time is very important.
March to April, please keep an eye on the market information, seize the best opportunity.