Because in addition to the price of hogs in the rise, and hog prices are closely related to a number of indicators are also synchronized with the big rise.

First of all, the pig price, according to the new animal husbandry network pig price index, the national average price from April 12 has ushered in six consecutive increases.

Local areas have risen to as high as 7.3 yuan per catty.

And more strong is the price of piglets, according to the Zhuochuang information data, in recent weeks the domestic piglet price is rising trend, 7 kilograms of three yuan piglets out of the average price of 313.15 yuan / head, or 9.09%.

According to the previous research of the reporter of the Agricultural Finance BaoDian new animal husbandry network, the highest local area piglet price has reached 450 yuan/head.

Then the stock price, as of the close of business this day, pork stocks are also all red, this middle east Ryan rose, Wen, Makuhara, new hope and other giants also rose more than 4%.

Additionally in the more responsive to the enduring trend of hog futures, today's hog futures main 2205 contract soared 5.51%, closing price rose to 13400 yuan / ton.

Hog futures 2209 contract is soaring 7.34%, the price reached 17,910 yuan / ton.

The equivalent spot price is 8.95 yuan/catty.

In addition to the three big rises, today also enacted another major indicator certainly fell, but more favorable.

The State Council Information Office on April 18, 2022 (Monday) at 10:00 a.m. held a press conference to introduce the first quarter of 2022 citizens economic operation.

Including the end of the first quarter, the stock of live pigs 422.53 million head, an increase of 1.6% year-on-year; of which 41.85 million breeding sows.

And previously the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development had issued the February end of the breeding sows inventory of 42.68 million head.

There were 830,000 sows landed in one month.

The vast amount of favorable data seems to point to the same conclusion that hog prices are finally going to start reversing.

Recently there are a number of brokerage firms announced a research report that the 2022 pig cycle reversal is imminent.

And the detailed rebound time, from the end of the second quarter to the third quarter, and even the end of the year, all kinds of claims.

But every one of them is particularly confident that hog prices are going to rise this year.

While we often say that belief is more particularly important than gold.

For an industry to develop well, it is certain that the practitioners must be full of faith to do so.

But everyone is optimistic about the same direction, but may bring unexpected effects in the matter of pig prices.

At the end of 2020, the whole industry was unanimously optimistic about the price of hogs in 2021, and the ultimate result was disastrous.

This time, the pig industry can get out of this game about pig prices dilemma?

For the determination of pig prices, say briefly also briefly, is nothing more than the analysis of both supply and demand.

Said Pangmu precisely Pangmu in, affecting the supply and demand factors are too many too Pangmu.

First of all, the supply side, the main reason for the unexpected plunge in hog prices in 2021 is that the whole industry has underestimated the speed of production capacity restoration, the big group underestimated the enthusiasm of small retailers to resume production, and the small retailers also underestimated the terrible expansion of the big group speed.

Today many people's belief in the second half of the pig price rebound is from the capacity reduction brought about by the persistent losses.

The hog inventory at this moment is sure to be less than the peak of the past year, but may not have been less than the field to let the price of hogs soared.

The state has just issued data, for example, the total stock of hogs against the year at this time is still 1.6% more.

And the breeding sows stock 41.85 million head is still higher than the normal retention of 41 million head in the "hog production capacity control implementation plan" issued by the state before.

Today's sows are still exceptionally far from being fewer in the absolute sense.

More to the point, hog supply is a dynamic indicator.

If the sows can stick to 41 million from now on, then maybe China's pig industry can become calm from now on, and every pig farmer can make a little solid money.

It is a pity that every private person in the bureau can not control the selection of others.

Currently on the situation of pig inventory appeared a very strange phenomenon, I chat with the difference between the regional farmers, the response is to their own around the pig significantly reduced, and some places even landed more than 50%.

But the price of hogs is slow to see a significant rebound.

Because at the moment no one can touch the group pig enterprise after all how many pigs.

And the difference is that in the past, when farmers started to replenish their stocks, they had to go through a long cycle from the beginning of the introduction of seeds.

The current round of production capacity in the process, group pig enterprises certainly cut down a large number of inefficient sows, but the reserve sows are widely retained.

Once they smell the signs of hog price recovery, the reserve sows of group hog enterprises can be converted into production capacity very quickly.

This moment can reduce 1 million sows a month, in the future the same ability to add 1 million sows a month.

When the small and medium-sized farmers reflect, I'm afraid this capacity gap has long been filled tightly.

And on the demand side, the other big miscalculation of the industry in 2021 was that it didn't realize that Chinese pork spending had fallen along with capacity at the time of the SARS outbreak, but never recovered along with capacity.

This is also the same time involved in the shift in spending habits, the new crown of the epidemic on the weakening of spending capacity and many other factors.

Today many pig farmers are complaining that the cost of raising pigs has risen sharply, and pig prices should rise a little.

But neglected once the price of pigs to the cost of meat prices, meat prices, if really synchronized rise, the amount of spending must be once again a significant decline in the requirements of the landing will in turn depress the price of pigs.

In this chain of transmission of requirements, the slaughtering enterprise continuously has the key right to speak.

And in recent years, farming giants are also more and more important to the extension of the slaughtering end, not only vigorously self-built slaughterhouse, more similar to the strong combination of Makin and Shuanghui.

The change in the general trend of policy is also more obvious, Hainan, Fujian, Guangdong and other provinces have implemented a ban on the transfer of foreign hogs.

In the future, the smooth flow of hogs between provinces, in fact, there are two remaining channels, one is to transfer pigs to transfer meat, pig enterprises to end the local slaughtering will be shipped after the meat, and the second is a small number of suitable point-to-point qualifications of the hog farms continue to transport pigs.

The rest of the hogs have to end up locally from hogs to meat.

We are clearly able to invent both owning abattoirs and having peer-to-peer credentials, which are clearly the preserve of the farming giants.

This also means that the giants will have a much greater say than they do at the moment about the price of pigs in their local markets.

It is clear from this that the logic of determining hog prices may be changing magnificently, both on the supply and demand side.

As an ordinary pig farmer, in the face of the immediate good, after all, to follow the wind or cautious? Past experience may no longer be practical.