Energy is a business, and OPEC also wants to make money. Since the interest rate hike led by the Federal Reserve, the world
Consumption has shrunk, energy demand has declined, and prices have also dropped before the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the quantity and protect the price. Now the global economy is in a downward cycle, and we are already in an economic crisis. The biggest weapon of energy exporting countries is energy.
Otherwise, these countries will be harvested by the United States. At present, the global currency dollar is the only one, followed by the latest indicators of economic winter in energy countries.
Second, OPEC cuts crude oil production, so the United States should be like
Under this circumstance, Europe has been sacrificed by hook or by crook, and the global economy has entered a critical crossroad. The release of water from the United States and Europe is doomed to this disaster, especially the uncontrolled release of water from the United States, which has laid a curse on the global economy. The source of global inflation is water release.
In other words, the source of this global crisis is similar to that in 2008, and the chief culprit is the greed of the United States.
Uncontrolled water discharge belongs to carpe diem, and the pain has not disappeared, just a delay. Past experience tells people that any so-called change
It just shifted the contradiction, and the contradiction did not disappear, but it will come in a different mode.
The trip to the Middle East was considered a failure by the American media themselves. When they met Salman, they didn't mention the murder of the Kachouqi reporter, and were criticized by the United States for not paying enough attention to human rights. Later, they said that they mentioned this matter in the talks. I don't know whether they mentioned it or not. However, Saudi Arabia agreed to increase
The production is true, but this is even more caught by the American media, because the increase in production is100000 barrels, which is not enough.
Theoretically, Saudi Arabia should have given some face in exchange for acquiescence in the transfer of power in Salman.
Third, this transaction is probably not the10,000 barrels announced by Saudi Arabia, but the two sides agreed that Saudi Arabia should control the oil price at a price that both sides think is appropriate.
Near the lattice.
So what's the price? The cost of Russian crude oil is about 44 dollars, including pipeline maintenance and other costs, it is about 50.
Dollars. Most of the crude oil exported by Russia is long-term cooperative price, that is, the futures price is about 30% off. In this way, when the international crude oil price is calculated,
When the price is below $65, there is no profit in Russian crude oil export. ?
Fourth, the output of shale oil has been increasing, and as the background of the traditional energy industry, it is certain to maintain enough shale oil industry.
Profit, then the construction transaction with Saudi Arabia is probably not 70, but about 80 dollars. If crude oil reaches $63, it will immediately penetrate the profit margin of shale oil, which is unacceptable to the shale oil industry.
In order to increase the output of shale oil enterprises at all costs, it is necessary to maintain the profits of shale oil industry, otherwise it will break through the formation of shale oil.
Ben, the decline in shale oil production is equal to the reduction in crude oil production.
Therefore, the oil price dropped rapidly after the trip to the Middle East, and now it is maintained at $80, and Saudi Arabia jumped out to reduce crude oil production, probably.
The rate is a long-established deal between the two sides, which really has nothing to do with American pills or Russian pills.
Cutting production is definitely bad for the economy. However, if the reduction in production really leads to a high oil price, then the resulting economic contraction should be
This is just a small snowflake in the global economic winter. The economy has often appeared in the mainstream media of a big country for other reasons. The president of this big country seems to have Alzheimer's disease and has a big problem. This is enough. On a problem that is really an economic killer, the whole world has not United to solve it, so the retribution is certain.
5. From the current point of view, OPEC's reduction in crude oil production has made it difficult for other countries, regardless of the frost on others' tiles. If this is the case,
It has really become irreversible for the time being, so I hope China can have good relations with resource-rich countries. And help some small countries as much as possible.
As for developed countries, there is no need to help. First, people don't need it, and the blood is thick. Even if we resell some resources to them at a high price, they will also pay.
I can afford it Secondly, if we really help, we can't help. People are used to living a good life, and they are all uncles.
As far as the current situation is concerned, I think it is impossible to say that OPEC is deliberately disgusting the United States.
We must know that fossil energy is no longer popular in the investment community, and the news that it can't be funded is there every day. If it is not the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,
No one is begging them to expand production, so now they can earn some, and it is best not to cut production if they can.
However, the signal of global economic recession is very clear. If production is not reduced now, there may be overcapacity in 2023, and oil prices are
There may be a plunge.
It is even possible to explode as in 20 years and have negative oil prices.
The sharp drop in oil prices is not good for anyone, but for oil-producing countries, it marks a further increase in production costs and profit margins.
Further narrowing, the life will be even worse.
Therefore, from the perspective of OPEC, we would rather have higher oil prices than overcapacity, so it is necessary to start reducing production now.
What we really need to consider is whether the amount of 2 million barrels is too large. I think it's hard to say.
Considering that the Beixi pipeline has just been bombed and the EU and Russia have fallen out, the consumption of the euro zone will definitely drop significantly in 2023.
Drop.