After entering December, the price of eggs on the market first rose and then fell, currently maintaining a level of 5-5.1 yuan.

The price of sheep cannot afford to fall, and the start of the rise can even be traced back to November.

After a month and a half of decline in pig prices, good news has finally come out in the market recently.

Wheat and corn prices have fallen one after another recently, but there is still hope for future prices.

1. Egg prices first rose and then fell

After entering December, egg prices first rose and then fell. The highest average price rose to 5.6 yuan. Recently, it fell again, and it rose before. The part was completely wiped out and fell back to the level of 5-5.1 yuan.

In early December, egg prices were able to see a rise. The author believes that the main reasons are as follows: 1. After the optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, market consumer demand has picked up.

2. The continued decline in egg prices in November stimulated the breeding sector to hold up prices and be reluctant to sell.

3. Feed costs are at a high level, which underpins the rise in egg prices.

As the price of eggs rose again to around 5.6 yuan, the relatively high price of eggs not only stimulated farmers to ship goods, but also inhibited terminal consumption.

Coupled with the recovery of transportation between production and marketing, the supply of eggs is relatively sufficient and prices have fallen.

What will be the subsequent trend of egg prices?

1. From the supply side, the production capacity of laying hens in December decreased compared with November. Although the number of new laying hens has increased, the price of retired chickens has continued to fall recently, indicating that the market The number of culled chickens has increased significantly. Taking into account the production capacity of laying hens, December has declined compared to November.

2. From the perspective of the mentality of the breeding end, due to the high price of feed, the high incidence of winter diseases, and the high cost of drug use, the breeding end is also very willing to pay high prices.

3. From the perspective of market consumption, although the low-temperature season is considered the traditional off-season for egg consumption, the eggs hoarded during the previous epidemic will be gradually used up, and there will be holiday shopping and supermarket stockings in the future. The market Consumption is improving.

Taking the above three points into consideration, it is expected that in the next half month, egg prices will most likely show a volatile and strong trend.

2. The price of sheep “cannot afford to fall”

Friends who do not understand the sheep raising industry will think that describing the price of sheep as “cannot afford to fall” is a bit too much. After all, the current wholesale price of mutton is still 33.6 yuan, and the retail price is well above 40 yuan.

But in fact, since the second half of 2021, domestic sheep prices have entered a downward mode.

Although sheep prices have been sluggish, the logic of sheep price declines in different periods is different. Generally speaking, there are several reasons why sheep prices cannot afford to fall:

1. The number of sheep raised has increased significantly.

According to statistics, my country's mutton production in the first half of this year was 2.12 million tons, and 138.74 million mutton sheep were slaughtered, an increase of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively compared with the same period last year. The supply of mutton has also reached the last 4 highest level in years.

2. Mutton consumption is sluggish. Affected by the loss of terminal restaurant customer flow, mutton sales have dropped to about 20% to 50% of the original level.

In addition, the high price of mutton is also one of the reasons for the unsatisfactory consumption of mutton.

3. Due to the previous traffic control, it was difficult to transport mutton, and it was backlogged in the place of production.

Next, mutton consumption is expected to rebound with the recovery of catering consumption. Smooth transportation will help consume the backlog of mutton in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. However, considering that the current domestic mutton production capacity is still in excess If the sheep price cannot rise before the Spring Festival, mutton consumption will gradually shrink after the Spring Festival, and the price increase will have to wait until May or June.

3. The pig market is booming

On December 15, the price of live pigs in various regions in the country fell overall, but the prices in the southern provinces increased steadily.

Although large fertilizers have been consumed for more than two months, there are still stocks on the market. Many farmers still have about 300 kilograms of large fertilizers in their hands. The current price is not suitable for these farmers. Generally speaking, it was at a loss. Because I was worried that the market outlook would continue to fall, I sold it urgently.

Under this situation, the price of pigs should continue to fall. Why can the southern provinces be able to rise steadily? The most important reason is that the pig market is booming. The demand for cured meat in the south has just started, and the demand has not yet reached its peak. The ban has been lifted in various places. The passenger flow in wet markets, supermarkets and other places has increased. In addition, the recovery of catering and dine-in dining has exerted a strong influence on pork. Consumption has played a very good role in promoting.

In order to meet the market's pork supply, butchery companies have also increased their operating rates. The current butchery companies have insufficient plans. According to pig dealers, the price quoted by butchery companies in some areas is 9.5 yuan. In the evening, due to insufficient plans, the quotation was The price was 10 yuan.

Although there is a shortage of standard pigs on the market, there is no shortage of fat pigs. Under normal circumstances, the fat pigs will rise with the fat pigs. There has never been a pig with fat pigs rising in price on the market, because Lack of fat is the real lack of meat, and there is no shortage of meat in the market for standard-deficient pigs.

My advice to farmers is that if you have big fat in your hands, then you should do it early. If it is a standard pig, you can continue to wait and see for about 10 days. After all, within these 10 days, Pork consumption is still relatively ideal, which can give relatively strong support to the price of pigs, even if it does not rise or fall sharply, it is unlikely.

4. Corn and wheat are still there

Recently, the market has seen significant increases in corn and wheat, and both have experienced varying degrees of decline.

Currently, the price of corn in Shandong is 1.465-1.55 yuan, the price of wheat is 1.61-1.645 yuan, the price of corn in North China is 1.39-1.495 yuan, and the price of wheat in Hebei is 1.625-1.64 yuan. , Henan's wheat quotation is 1.613-1.635 yuan.

The logic of the recent decline in wheat and corn prices is not complicated:

1. After the recovery of transportation, the supply of grain increased.

2. Corn and wheat prices are at relatively high levels, and grassroots farmers and traders are reluctant to sell.

3. The terminal is not delivering goods smoothly, and the company's operating rate is low.

4. The fall in pig and chicken prices has reduced breeding profits and weakened demand for feed.

However, regarding the subsequent food prices, the author believes that both wheat and corn will have a chance.

In terms of corn, the continuous decline in corn prices has had an impact on corn production. At the peak, the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong Deep Processing Enterprises in the morning was as high as 2,000 taels. In recent days, it has only been 600 to 700 taels. With the early The long-depressed corn volume spurt in the market is over, and corn prices will return to market supply and demand.

Grain holders are reluctant to sell. In addition, deep processing companies and feed companies will have a stocking period before the Spring Festival. Short-term corporate inventories are relatively sufficient and the willingness to increase prices is not strong. However, there will still be a wave before the Spring Festival. During the rising period, it is just that this rising period may be impacted by farmers’ cash out before the Spring Festival.

As for wheat, due to the high price of flour, flour dealers generally said that flour sales this year are poor and they can only rely on catering demand to support them.

Furry will usher in two benefits in the future: 1. After the epidemic situation improves, catering will gradually resume, which will help further increase the demand for flour.

2. The peak season for flour demand will enter next. The poor demand for flour in the early stage will help the demand to retaliate.

In addition, the period of concentrated wheat volume increase has ended, and wheat has been transferred from the hands of grassroots farmers to traders. Under the pressure of high prices and high storage costs, traders are more willing to raise prices. .

Comprehensive analysis shows that wheat prices are expected to have strong momentum to stop falling and rebound.