On June 5438+ 10, Nongfu Spring indicated that the 2 yuan per barrel of water rose by10%; McDonald's rose from 12.9 yuan to 13.9 yuan, and KFC's products also rose by 0.5-2 yuan. * * * The bicycle price is increased to 1.5 yuan every 15 minutes.
The price increase from air tickets to enjoying bicycles has made many people exclaim that the cost of living is too high.
In our previous ideas, rising prices were often associated with inflation. But this time, we should be wary of deflation.
Since 2020, the growth rate of M2, which represents the amount of market money, has remained above 8% for a long time. At the end of February this year, the balance of M2 reached 275.52 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, a record high of nearly seven years. At the end of last year 1 1, the central bank released about 500 billion yuan of liquidity, and on March 17, the central bank lowered the RRR again.
There is a lot of money in the market, but the CPI in China dropped to 1% in February, and now there are signs of deflation.
In this case, why did the price go up? Are we feeling wrong?
Jin Yongjun believes that there are three main reasons.
First of all, the prices of air tickets, hotels and other commodities are particularly affected by market supply and demand.
A scalper revealed to Jin Yongjun, "This year is the most incomprehensible year since I sold tickets for seven years. There is no music festival without premium, which can be said to be' horror'".
Disney also announced that it will raise the price for the fourth time from June 23rd. Even so, recently, Jin Yongjun found that people's enthusiasm was not affected by queuing at the Disney gate before dawn every day.
In the past three years, people's travel and entertainment have been restrained, accompanied by a sharp decline in the income of travel agencies, airlines, homestays and other related industries. Now, people's demand has been quickly released, and the market demand is large, so it is not surprising that prices have risen.
Second, the prices and costs of raw materials for some commodities will naturally increase. Take mineral water as an example. Last year, the international oil price remained high, which made the purchase cost of PET (a plastic material) higher. Coupled with the cost of packaging materials such as cartons, labels and shrink films, the gross profit margin of Nongfu Spring in the first half of 2022 decreased from 60.9% in the same period last year to 59.3%. As the upstream cost increases, the price of bottled water naturally rises.
Even before McDonald's arbitrary price increase caused concern, catering brands such as Haidilao, Xibei, Luckin Coffee and Chabaidao had already raised their prices. The reasons for the price increase in the catering industry also point to the increase in raw materials and labor costs.
According to the Report on the Development Status and Market Research and Analysis of China Catering Industry in 2022 released by Ai Media Consulting, the three highest catering costs are raw material cost (4 1.8%), labor cost (2 1.3%) and three expenses (2 1.2%), among which raw material cost accounts for the highest proportion.
However, from another perspective, this may be a good thing for consumers. The increase of cost and fierce market competition can force enterprises to make improvements to some extent.
With the development of economy and the change of people's consumption concept, price is no longer the only indicator for consumers to judge. Food quality, supporting services and dining environment constitute a comprehensive evaluation of a restaurant. Even if the price is higher, a good experience will still make consumers feel value for money. On the other hand, businesses whose prices are not low, but whose food or service environment has no characteristics, will be eliminated by the market.
Third, people with different needs in different regions have different perceptions of prices. People feel that food, clothing, housing and transportation are the main sources of rising prices, and China's CPI consists of eight categories: food, alcohol, tobacco and supplies, clothing, household equipment, medical care, transportation and communication, entertainment, education and culture, and housing. The price of hotel catering industry has increased this year, but the sales of automobiles, electronic products and other commodities are still sluggish. In these aspects, people's current demand potential needs to be further released.
And the prices in different regions are naturally different. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in February, the highest CPI index of all provinces in China was 1.7% in Jiangsu, and the lowest was 0.3% in Guizhou. When Jiangsu people complain about the high price of the same commodity, Guizhou people may ask, "I don't think the price has increased."
Therefore, our understanding of prices often has certain limitations and cannot represent the real situation of the whole society.
Looking at it from another angle, the rising prices of some commodities can see the recovery of tourism and catering industry. Only by letting money flow in the market and inject it into the entity can we really promote economic development.