First of all, let's analyze the national garlic (young garlic) production and marketing in 24-25. The national garlic production and marketing in 24 has ended. Looking back on the national garlic production this year, it can be summarized as two increases and two decreases:

1. The area is flat. According to incomplete statistics, the garlic planting area in China this year is 6.91 million mu (according to FAO statistics, the garlic planting area in China is 7.35 million mu), which is basically the same as that of the previous year; Among them, the garlic area of Shandong, Henan and Jiangsu provinces accounts for more than 8% of the total area of the country. According to the statistics of 28 garlic producing counties (cities) by the National Garlic Committee, this year * * * planted 4.3 million mu of garlic, a decrease of 15, mu over the previous year, of which 1.87 million mu of garlic was mainly used for biting or both, accounting for 43.5% of the garlic area, a decrease of 125, mu over the previous year; The garlic area with the head as the main part (hybrid garlic) was 2.43 million mu, accounting for 56.5%, an increase of 11, mu over the previous year.

2. The output increased and decreased. Although no large number of garlic seedlings died in the northern garlic region this year due to the influence of low temperature, it was affected by drought when it entered the growing period of garlic shoots, and only at the end of April did the main garlic producing areas in Shandong get a soaking rain, which led to a reduction in garlic shoots. However, the rain was relatively even in the later period, and the garlic grew better this year than in previous years. According to the statistics of 28 major garlic producing counties (cities), the output of garlic this year was 2.623 million tons, an increase of 4.7% over last year, and the output of garlic bolts was 1.58 million tons, a decrease of 5.2%.

3. The purchase price has increased.

First, the market of garlic bolts is optimistic. Last winter and this spring, the price of vegetables was high, and the price of garlic products also rose. In addition, the output of garlic bolts this year is low, and the quality is better than last year, so the enthusiasm of fresh-keeping enterprises to buy garlic bolts is improved; Therefore, the purchase price of young garlic shoots this year is generally higher than last year. Sheyang County, which is known as the hometown of young garlic shoots in China, has an average purchase price of 1.9 yuan this year, an increase of more than 37.68% over last year.

Second, the price of purchasing garlic is high, because there is a rare high benefit in storing garlic in 23. Greatly stimulate the price trend of garlic in China

With China's accession to the WTO, the pace of zero tariff is getting closer and closer to us. Garlic, the main vegetable export variety in China, has exceeded 1 million tons for four consecutive years. The processed products of garlic, such as garlic slices, garlic powder, garlic granules and garlic oil, are also exported rapidly, which greatly promotes the development of garlic industry in China. In recent years, the price of garlic has been rising all the way, from .6 yuan per kilogram in the pre-SARS period in 23 to more than 3 yuan per kilogram in August last year. Garlic farmers are happy and elated all the way, but now it has climbed to a record high per kilogram in 4.6 yuan, even the "market experts" who have stored and managed garlic for many years are unexpected. Garlic planting is concentrated in the junction of southern Shandong, northern Jiangsu and northern Henan provinces. In 25, the high price of garlic attracted the vast number of garlic farmers to expand their planting area, and the natural output of the area was large, so the price would inevitably fall. The price of garlic in 26 was lower than that in 25 for the following reasons:

The price of garlic in 25 was high, and the planting area increased by about 25% compared with the previous year. In addition, the winter in 25 was relatively cold. Although the planting season of garlic was late, the growth of garlic was similar to that in previous years. From the growth trend in early spring, the number of leaves was basically the same as that in previous years, which means that the yield of garlic would be equivalent to that in 25.

Although the price will be low, it will not be too low for the following reasons:

1. The high-priced garlic in 25 is gradually being digested by the international market. During the garlic storage season from July to August in 25, the export of garlic in Jinxiang and Pizhou was above 3, yuan/ton. Garlic powder, a deep-processed product of garlic, was 12, yuan/ton, an increase of more than 5% over the same period of last year. The high-priced raw material garlic drove the price of garlic processed products to rise. The high-priced export of garlic and its processed products has largely digested the price risk of the arrival of high-priced garlic this year.

2. The demand for garlic in domestic and international markets has also increased further. According to the trend in recent years, the demand for garlic, especially in China, is increasing year by year, because Chinese people are recognizing the health care function of garlic and their awareness of health care is improving. The country's political situation has been very stable, which provides many favorable conditions for further expanding the international market, and the export of garlic will increase further. In addition, the domestic garlic processing capacity is being further enhanced, which will further improve the international competitiveness of garlic in China and bring some positive factors to the price increase of garlic.

3. According to the law of wave development, the price rises for several consecutive years, even if the highest price appears, it is not a sharp drop, but a gradual decline, and the decline time is two, three or more years. Generally speaking, the current high price has been accepted by domestic and foreign markets. The price decline will also come slowly.

4. Judging from the purchasing and storage psychology in 26, the purchasing and storage price of garlic was too low from June to August, so farmers had enough time to hold the goods and find opportunities to sell them. Judging from many years' experience in purchasing garlic, those who buy garlic in the early stage generally won't lose money. Although this year's early acquisition can't be said to be the same as in 25, the momentum will not be too weak. In addition, the pre-purchase will be priced at the price of cold-stored garlic in 25. In addition, because all the farmers sold at low prices early last year, it will inevitably lead to farmers' reluctance to sell. Together, the pre-purchase price will not be too low. Once the price comes up, there will not be too much decline, because the early purchase will be cost-effective, and the price trend will be similar to that in the middle and late 25.

5. The increase in the price of water, electricity and fertilizer has led to the increase in production costs, which in principle has also pushed up the price of garlic.

To sum up, the price of garlic in 26 will be lower than that in 25, but not too low. It is estimated that it will be around 1 yuan, but it is unlikely to be lower than .8 yuan/kg.