Text: Yan Ansheng

In the past 22, the sudden COVID-19 epidemic hit the global economy like never before. Because China's epidemic prevention measures were resolute and decisive, and it took only about three months to control the epidemic, China is the country with the fastest and most effective economic recovery and the only large economy in the world that has achieved positive economic growth.

Looking back on the performance of major economies in the world in the past year, except China, which achieved a positive growth rate of 2.3%, other countries can be described as miserable. One is worse than the other. Among them, the United States is-3.1%, Brazil is-4.5%, Japan is-5.1%, Germany is-5.4%, India is-8%, and France is-9%. Based on the global economic situation, the global economy shrank by 3.5% in 22.

China and the United States lead the global economy in Big bounce

Fortunately, in 221, the impact of the epidemic on the global economy is decreasing, and with the launch of COVID-19 vaccine around the world, it will also bring good news to the global economy. Recently, people all over the world have been vaccinated against COVID-19, especially the United States and China, the two largest economies in the world. Not only are their economies the most resistant to shocks, but their vaccination speed and quantity are also the fastest and the most. Therefore, China and the United States may take the lead in achieving group immunization. In this way, the two biggest engines of global economic growth will quickly return to normal, and an endless surge of growth momentum will be injected into the global economy.

first of all, China's economic performance in 221 will be one of the biggest highlights of the global economy. In the first quarter of 22, China's economy experienced a negative growth of 6.8%, but in the second quarter, China's economic decline was effectively curbed, and there was a positive growth of 3.2%; In the third quarter, it rose further to 4.9%, while in the fourth quarter, China's economic growth rate was as high as 6.4%, exceeding the level before the outbreak. It can be expected that the positive momentum of China's economic growth in 221 will be continuously consolidated and enhanced.

it must be noted that the "two-cycle" development pattern of China economy has achieved great success in 22, laying a solid foundation for China's economy to reach a new level in 221. In 22, on the one hand, China's economy was severely impacted by the COVID-19 epidemic; on the other hand, anti-globalization forces headed by the Trump administration of the United States rose, clamoring for decoupling from China's economy, and escalating the trade war and science and technology war against China. Faced with the rise of international protectionism, the downturn of the world economy, and the unfavorable external environment of shrinking global markets, the CPC Central Committee has made a major strategic deployment of "two-cycle development", that is, a new development pattern with the domestic big cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promoting each other. Facts have proved that the strategic arrangement of "dual-cycle development" in 22 was a great success, which not only laid a solid foundation for the domestic market and industry, but also consolidated China's position in international trade, and even made the trade war launched by the United States against China a complete failure. In 221, China's economy will continue to maintain a strong development momentum in the "double-cycle development" pattern, following the pace of 22.

It should be emphasized that China's economy has entered a new stage of all-round high-quality development. The new development concept of "innovation, coordination, green, openness and enjoyment" is leading China's economy to transform and upgrade in an all-round way, and new technologies, industries and formats are emerging one after another, such as modern information industries and industries such as 5G, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, clean energy, high-end medical equipment and high-end chips. The development of new technologies, new industries and new formats in China is in the ascendant, with great potential and unlimited market prospects. In 221 and the next few years, it will be the outbreak period of emerging economies such as new technologies, new industries and new formats in China, which will inject surging momentum into the economic development of China.

in view of this, at the national "two sessions" held in March this year, Premier Li Keqiang announced to the world that the economic growth target set by the China government in 221 is 6% and above. As Premier Li Keqiang emphasized, since China's GDP has exceeded RMB 1 trillion, the 6% GDP growth in 221 is equivalent to the 8% growth in the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Obviously, the economic growth rate of 6% and above set by China government in 221 is a very positive and prudent goal.

Secondly, the United States made full use of the hegemonic position of the US dollar, and made the US economy recover rapidly through the massive relief plan and fiscal stimulus plan. Although the United States is deeply troubled by the epidemic in 22, the recession of the American economy is better than expected, with a decline of only 3.1%, which is much better than other major economies in the world except China. Why can the US economy be better than expected? The fundamental reason is that the US dollar has helped the US economy a lot, because the US dollar has the hegemonic position of the world currency, is the most popular settlement currency and reserve currency in the world, and is the only hard currency that takes all the world. It is precisely by making full use of the hegemony of the US dollar that the United States started printing money, distributing hundreds of billions of dollars in cash benefits to American nationals on the one hand, and injecting trillions of dollars in relief funds and liquidity into American enterprises and markets on the other, thus reviving the troubled American economy.

In 22, when Trump took office, the United States has released a huge relief plan and rescue plan of US$ 4 trillion. As soon as Biden took office, he inherited the Trump administration's so-called relief and stimulus policy. On March 11, Biden officially signed a new bailout bill with a scale of US$ 1.9 trillion. Since March 22, the US government has distributed US$ 6 trillion to American nationals and enterprises. In fact, after Biden signed the $1.9 trillion stimulus plan, many international institutions immediately raised the US economic growth forecast in 221.

However, the US dollar drama is yet to come. The Biden administration has also decided to launch an economic recovery plan with a scale of 3-4 trillion US dollars. This economic recovery plan with a scale of 2.25 trillion US dollars focuses on solving infrastructure reform problems such as rebuilding roads and bridges in the United States and widening network broadband in rural areas. The investment plan bill was signed by Biden at the end of March. The remaining $2 trillion is expected to be announced in April and the second bill will be finalized, mainly for issues related to child care measures and medical care subsidies. According to the data released by the Federal Reserve, from 22 to now, the national subsidy plan and economic stimulus plan announced and prepared by the United States will release the basic liquid currency to the market up to 23 trillion US dollars within one year. Some market analysts pointed out that even if all Americans don't work, it is no doubt that the US economy will achieve positive growth in 221 only by starting the printing press by the US government.

Looking forward to 221, major international organizations are optimistic about the global economic prospects. In early January this year, the IMF said that the global economy is expected to grow by 5.5% in 221, .3 percentage points higher than the forecast in October last year. Among them, China's economic growth forecast is ahead of all western economies. Specifically, in 221, the economic growth rate of China will be 8.1%, that of France will be 5.5%, that of the United States will be 5.1%, that of Britain will be 4.5%, that of Germany will be 3.5%, that of Brazil will be 3.6%, that of Japan will be 3.1%, and that of India is expected to rise to 11.5%. Three months later, the International Monetary Fund released the World Economic Outlook Report on April 6, predicting that the global economy will grow by 6% in 221, .5 percentage points higher than the forecast in January. At the same time, the IMF predicts that China's economy will grow by 8.4% in 221, .3 percentage point higher than that predicted in January, and China will become the largest contributor to global economic growth. The IMF also predicts that the United States and India will be the second and third largest contributors to global economic growth, and Japan and Germany will be in the top five. The International Monetary Fund says there are more and more signs that the economic crisis is coming to an end.

Global inflation is rolling in

When Big bounce appears in the global economy in 221, it will be accompanied by global inflation, and the culprit is the US dollar. As mentioned above, from the Trump administration to the Biden administration, the relief plan and economic stimulus plan launched by the US government have continued. The US government has no money. Where does the money come from?

the U.S. government can only repeat its old tricks, take advantage of the hegemonic position of the U.S. dollar in the international monetary system, and start printing money on a large scale to release a large amount of dollars to the world. In this way, the United States not only successfully passed on the crisis to other countries and regions, but also can reap the development achievements of other countries and regions.

Up to now, the United States' practice of playing with the hegemony of the dollar has been tried and tested, which has caused great disasters to all countries in the world. However, as there is no international currency that can challenge the status of the dollar at present, the whole world can only watch the dollar openly plunder the world's wealth. Some analysts pointed out that the banknotes printed in the United States in the past year are equivalent to the sum of banknotes printed since the history of printing money.

As the US dollar is a global hard currency, it is the most important international settlement currency, international reserve currency and international circulation currency. Therefore, the United States' unrestrained release of US dollars to the whole world with all its efforts in printing money will inevitably lead to many serious consequences, and the most direct consequence is global inflation. As a matter of fact, for the successive rescue and economic stimulus plans launched by the United States, while the market is gratified that Big bounce will appear in the American economy, it also shows deep anxiety and worry, and global inflation has been rolling in. Summers, a former US Treasury Secretary and a professor at Harvard University, believes that a large-scale stimulus policy may trigger "inflationary pressure that has never been seen in a generation". He predicted that the Fed may be forced to raise interest rates from 222 to "cool down" the economy and curb inflation, earlier than the previous expectation of 223.

In order to cope with the wanton printing of money in the United States, printing machines are being started all over the world. It is reported that this year, the world's printed cash will be converted into several hundred trillion dollars. Such a huge amount of cash printed by countries will flock to the market. Some of the funds used to help their nationals will flow to the stock market, while the other will flow to the consumer goods market. Other bailout funds or economic stimulus funds will flow to raw materials, minerals, real estate, company equity and industrial products. It is reported that the capital construction plan of the United States alone has as much as 2 trillion dollars flowing to the international raw material market, which means that the prices of building materials such as cement, steel, copper and aluminum will rise sharply. Some analysts have pointed out that in the next 5-1 years, the prices of products such as cement, steel, copper and aluminum will rise at least 1-3 times.

The world has entered an era when everything is expensive. First of all, the stock market led the rise. However, it was the rich who benefited from the stock market surge, but ordinary people could only hope that the stock market would sigh, and the gap between the rich and the poor would be widened again. According to statistics, in 22, the total assets of the world's richest 5 people increased by 1.8 trillion US dollars, an increase of 31%, the largest annual increase in the eight-year history of the index.

followed by the surge in commodities. From April 22 to February 221, the prices of copper, iron and silver in the international market rose by 67%, 94% and 82% respectively. The price of crude oil once approached $7 per barrel, which was the highest level in the past two years. The crude oil index rose by 17% and the energy index rose by 172%. Steel prices have more than doubled in the past six months, and iron ore and nickel have also hit new highs for many years.

As far as the China market is concerned, since mid-22, the prices of bulk commodities in the Mainland have been rising at an alarming rate. In the past six months or so, copper prices have increased by nearly 4%, paper prices by 5%, plastics by 35%, aluminum prices by nearly 4%, iron and glass by more than 3%, while zinc alloys and stainless steel have soared by nearly 5%, and IC prices have even increased by as much as 1%. Because energy and commodities are the basic products of the economy, the rise in the prices of these products will inevitably lead to a chain reaction, which will eventually be transmitted to the entire consumer market.

Third, with the rising prices of consumer goods in daily life, the costs of clothing, food, housing and transportation will become more and more expensive. According to data from the World Bank, global food prices will rise by more than 2% in 22, and international sorghum prices will rise by more than 8%. After entering 221, the prices of most agricultural products are still on the rise. The international food price index compiled by FAO has risen for nine consecutive months, reaching the highest level since 214, among which the prices of sorghum, corn and wheat have increased significantly. The price of soybeans has increased by more than 6% in the past year, the price of rice has increased by 7% in 11 months, and the price of black beans has increased by 4%.

In addition, at present, the real estate market in many countries in the world, especially in the United States and Britain, is in full swing, and property prices are rising. According to the report of American real estate agency, in September 22, the median residential sales in the United States increased by 13% year-on-year, reaching $31.9. By November, the median house price in the United States rose to $334,, the highest annual increase since July 213. The average house only stayed in the market for 27 days, and the total sales volume increased by 23%. It is estimated that in 221, American house prices will increase by 5.7% on the basis of 22. At the same time, in recent months, the rising international transportation prices have led to a shortage of containers, which has led to an increase in the cost of imported goods in various countries. Global inflation has hit some emerging market countries and regions. For example, inflation in Brazil jumped to 5.2% in February this year, about twice that of six months ago.

The global financial market will be turbulent

In 221, the global economic Big bounce will be accompanied by another major phenomenon, that is, the global financial market is bound to be more turbulent.

As mentioned above, a huge amount of US dollar water release has become a surging trend in the international financial market. For other countries except the United States, if any country follows the example of the United States in printing money and releasing water, it will lead to serious inflation and soaring prices, and its own currency will not be able to buy a piece of bread even if it carries a sack of tens of billions of banknotes, as Zimbabwe did in 29. However, the United States is different, because the United States has the hegemony of the dollar, and the dollar has a unique hard currency status in the international monetary system. In this way, all the dollar bills printed by the United States are for their own use, but the consequences will be borne by the whole world.

the wanton release of dollars has begun to impact the global economy. Some market participants pointed out that at present, the US dollar is facing the biggest challenge and confidence crisis since the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913. In order to avoid the possible devaluation of the US dollar, all countries and international organizations in the world are trying their best to avoid the possible risks brought by the US dollar. Even European countries, including some American allies, and more and more emerging market countries are preparing for the US dollar to lose its status as an international hard currency one day.