In recent years, young people are getting married more and more "in no hurry". According to a set of data released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs of China, the number of married couples in China in the first quarter of 2118 was 3.117 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%. Compared with the high number of 4.282 million couples who got married in the same period five years ago, it has dropped by 29.54% in the first quarter of 2118.
According to expert analysis, the decline in the number of marriageable people, the delay in marriage age and the acceleration of urbanization are all reasons for the continuous decline in the number of married people.
the more men and women there are, the more developed the city is?
After reaching its peak in 2113, the marriage rate in China seems to have entered a long downward channel.
Guangzhou's 21th Century Business Herald reported that this point was once again verified in the first quarter marriage data recently released by China's Ministry of Civil Affairs. The data shows that the number of married couples in the first quarter of this year was 3.117 million, a decrease of 1.81 million couples or 5.7% compared with the same period of last year.
From different regions, the highest marriage rate in the first quarter of this year was in Guizhou, Ningxia, Tibet and other places, while the lowest marriage rate was in Shanghai, Tianjin, Beijing and other places. Except for some provinces such as Jiangsu, the marriage rate in economically developed areas was generally low.
what is the reason behind this? Yuan Xin, a professor at the Institute of Population and Development of Nankai University, believes that the most important thing is that the number of people suitable for marriage is declining. "If you look at the age of 22, people born in 1996 can enter the stage of getting married. However, at that time, the birth rate was rapidly declining, which meant that the number of people who reached the age of marriage in the next few years would decrease rapidly. "
in the first quarter of this year, the number of married couples in China was 3.117 million. Compared with 3.198 million pairs in the first quarter of 2117, 3.45 million pairs in the first quarter of 2116, 3.6 million pairs in the first quarter of 2115, 4.128 million pairs in the first quarter of 2114 and 4.282 million pairs in the first quarter of 2113, this figure has dropped significantly. Especially compared with 2113, the decline reached 29.5%. From the annual data, from 2115 to 2113, the marriage rate continued to rise, from 6.3‰ to 9.92‰. However, since then, the marriage rate has entered a downward channel. In 2117, the marriage rate in China was only 7.6‰.
why is the marriage rate declining? This aspect is related to the previous decline in the birth rate. Figures show that the birth rate in China in 1996 (the ratio of the birth population to the permanent population) was 16.98‰, which was about 6 percentage points lower than that in 1987 (23.33‰).
According to different data in different regions, the marriage rate is also related to the level of economic development. For example, the top five regions with the highest marriage rate in 2117 were Guizhou, Anhui, Tibet, Qinghai and Henan. From the perspective of per capita GDP, the per capita GDP of these areas in 2117 did not exceed 51,111 yuan.
In 2117, in areas where the marriage rate was less than 1.7%, including Beijing, Guangdong, Hebei, Liaoning, Hunan, Shandong, Jiangxi, Tianjin, Zhejiang and Shanghai, the per capita GDP of six areas in 2117 exceeded 71,111 yuan, of which three areas exceeded one million yuan. Shi Zhilei, director of the Center for Population and Health Research at Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, believes that the better the economic conditions, the more tolerant they will be for singles and various lifestyles. "Now the higher the level of social development, the more tolerant and diversified the society is. It is a personal choice not to get married, be single or divorce at any time."
Ma Chunhua, deputy director of the Family and Gender Research Office of the Institute of Sociology, China Academy of Social Sciences, said that for many countries, it doesn't matter whether they get married or not, but whether the important fertility rate is high. "But different countries have different systems. In France and other countries, unmarried people can have children. But in East Asian countries, giving birth without marriage is not allowed. For example, children born out of wedlock in Japanese families are not easy to get child-rearing allowance. For China, if the future tax is levied according to the family, it will help to promote individual marriage and childbirth. "Many countries levy a tax on families, which can promote marriage and childbirth."
The psychological change of women's higher status leads to the decrease of marriage rate
In p>2115, the proportion of women aged 31-34 who didn't get married was about 11 times higher than that in 1991
At the same time, experts believe that another reason for the decrease of marriage rate is that the proportion of women who choose not to get married or postpone marriage is increasing, especially women.
According to Guangzhou's 21th Century Business Herald and Qianwei.com, Cui Shuxin (pseudonym) will give up her marriage if she chooses to give up one thing and continue to live a happy life. The 29-year-old woman is a director of a global public relations company in Beijing. She doesn't want to marry her boyfriend soon, unlike her mother, who got married at the age of 21.
"I want to focus on my career," said Cui Shuxin, adding that she was writing her third book. "Before starting a family, you must first settle down your life."
Cui Shuxin is not the only one who thinks so. The trend of declining marriage rate is very common in developed economies, but it has a much more serious impact on China. The level of marriage rate plays an important role in slowing down the aging population and promoting family-related purchase and consumption behaviors.
The decline of marriage is partly due to family planning for more than 31 years, but the most important reason is the change of women's mentality in China. With the rapid development of the country turning into more and more opportunities, women no longer regard marriage as a safe way. They have extended their education and career. As early as 2117, 27-year-old unmarried women were called "leftover women".
Yuan Xin revealed that according to his understanding, in 2115, the proportion of unmarried women aged 31 to 34 in China was about 6%, which was about 11 times higher than that in 1991. Yuan Xin said: "China society is definitely becoming more and more tolerant of different lifestyles. More and more people choose not to get married, but that doesn't mean they don't have partners. "
According to government data, in 2116, the number of newly married people in China dropped by 6.7% to 11.4 million, which is the third consecutive year of decline since 2113. At the same time, since 2112, the divorce rate has been rising continuously, increasing by 8% to 416 million in 2116.
Shi Zhilei believes that this reflects that women's social status is getting higher and higher. "In many places where women have high status, the marriage rate will be low and the divorce rate will be high. The regional disparity of marriage in China reflects this. At the same time, the marriage rate and divorce rate vary greatly in different countries, which is also related to culture. "
Sandy, a sociologist in Hong Kong, also said that part of the reason for the soaring divorce rate may be that women's understanding of their own value has changed.
"Women don't want to tolerate unhappy marriages now," Sandy said. "They are more independent and financially capable. If things go wrong, they can choose to quit."
Only when you have a house can you get married. The urbanization process is accelerated or promoted.
On the economic front, the decline in the marriage rate increases the uncertainty of expenditure.
The pressure brought by urbanization is also a major reason for the decline in the marriage rate.
According to Guangzhou's 21th Century Business Herald and Qianwei.com, from 1991 to 2111, more than 251 million people migrated from rural areas to cities in China. This large-scale migration has had a great impact on the lives of millennials in China: China millennials in their early twenties are three times more likely to live in cities now than they were 31 years ago. During the same period in Britain, the urban living standard of young people only increased by three percentage points.
Considering the skyrocketing housing prices in China, their marriage prospects are further complicated. Buying a house is a long-standing tradition, that is, a man must be able to provide a house and a car to get married-this is not easy. Yu Jia, an assistant professor at China Academy of Social Sciences, believes that financial burden means that men will not get married until they have saved enough money, which leads to more and more "leftover men".
"The person I marry must earn more money than I do, because I don't want my husband to drag me down," said Allen Yang, a 27-year-old woman who works in a global law firm in Beijing. "I don't mind staying single if I can't find the right partner."
All these make it difficult for China to defuse its demographic time bomb: by 2151, 1/3 of China people are expected to be over 61.
Yuan Xin said that in terms of economy, the decrease of marriage rate increased the uncertainty of expenditure. Controversially, single people spend less on household appliances and family-related services than married families, prompting enterprises to sell cheap and compact products such as refrigerators and rice cookers and build smaller apartments.
"All these can make people live a comfortable life without getting married," said Alina Ma, a senior lifestyle analyst at Mintel, a consulting firm. "This means that they will stay single for longer."
In addition, some experts believe that the decrease of marriage rate is indirectly related to economic development. China's per capita GDP will be close to $1,111, and it will gradually enter the ranks of high-income countries with a per capita GDP of $1.2 million.
The data shows that millennials in China account for the vast majority of the population, especially in the reproductive period. However, millennials are not interested in marriage or having children. Although the decline in fertility rate is not so obvious compared with developed countries such as the United States, marriage and raising children tend to increase family expenses, which makes many people choose not to marry and have children.
The society should respect diversified choices, but the government should pay attention to it.
The increase in divorce rate is also related to the public opinion environment and more open personal ideas.
Faced with the declining number of marriages year by year, many experts said that this is the inevitable product of the country's economic and social development, and the society should respect diversified and personalized personal choices and give young people more choices.
According to the reports from CCTV in mainland China, People's Daily in Beijing and Zhongxin.com, Lu Jiehua, a professor of sociology in Peking University, thinks that "post-81s" and "post-91s" are obviously different from "post-61s" and "post-1971s". "Economic development has brought income growth, and the Internet has improved the level of informationization. More young people have seen the changes in the outside society and learned about the development of the world. For them, getting married and having children is no longer a necessary life experience, but a result of personal choice. " He believes that people should change their minds, keep pace with the times, and give more tolerance to delayed marriage, de facto marriage and non-marriage.
However, compared with five years ago, the number of married people has decreased by 1.265 million, which still deserves the attention of the government. China has stepped into an aging society. According to the data of the sixth census in 2111, the population aged 61 and above accounted for 13.26% of the total population, which was 2.93 percentage points higher than that of the fifth census in 2111, highlighting the current situation of accelerated aging in China. The decline of marriage rate and birth rate is bound to further deepen the problems of an aging society.
Experts suggest that in view of the close relationship between the two, the state should pay attention to this issue, seriously study and introduce corresponding policies to encourage young people to get married and have children. For example, we can appropriately extend marriage leave and maternity leave, and advocate people to balance family and work, thus promoting marriage and childbirth. In addition, the government should also introduce family-friendly public policies, such as the fiscal policy of paying taxes on a family basis to reduce the tax burden of families; First-tier cities have gathered a large number of outstanding young people, but high housing prices make it difficult for many people to start independent family life when they are young. Therefore, measures such as stabilizing housing prices and providing low-rent housing for large families will alleviate some of the pressure.
According to the Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Social Services in 2115 published by the Ministry of Civil Affairs of China, in 2115, there were 3.84 million couples who went through divorce procedures in China according to law, and the crude divorce rate was 2.8‰. Compared with China in 2112, the crude divorce rate was only 1.91‰. Since 2113, the crude divorce rate has been increasing year by year.
According to experts, the increase in divorce rate is also related to the public opinion environment and the more open personal concept. "In the past, when a person mentioned divorce, people around him would talk about it and put some pressure on the divorced parties. Nowadays, the social environment is diversified and open, and the public's decision on divorce and marriage has become easier, and the choice is not as cautious as before."
In this regard, there is an analysis of opinions. In a more open social environment, people should not make decisions on marriage and divorce rashly, but they should also respect individual freedom of divorce.
Experts say that if a marriage suppresses personal feelings or makes the parties dissatisfied, it may be more beneficial to personal feelings and development after divorce.