In recent months, the market for broiler chickens has improved. A large number of pig farmers have switched to raising chickens. Poultry meat is also recognized as the most promising meat product to replace pork. But in the face of a pork gap of tens of millions of tons, can poultry production capacity be quickly filled? What risks will the substantial increase in poultry industry production capacity bring? Is it really easy for pig farmers to switch to raising chickens? Answers to Dad It's not as simple as imagined.
Not enough pork and poultry? It’s not as easy as imagined
Mr. Li, who lives in a small town in northern Henan Province, is usually keen on visiting vegetable markets and cooking delicious food. In the past two months, he has The invention of pork started a wave of price increases. The price of ordinary cuts of pork rose from 12 yuan/catty to 15-16 yuan/catty. Mr. Li was helpless, "It has risen too fast. It seems that I will have to buy something else to eat in the future. No." You must eat pork.”
Ordinary citizens are gradually feeling the impact of African swine fever from the price of meat.
The average annual pork consumption per capita is 39 kilograms
Chinese people have a long history of eating pork, and pork plays an important role on the Chinese dinner table. Every year, the Chinese eat half of the world’s pigs. In 2018, global pork consumption was approximately 110 million tons, of which China accounted for 55 million tons. In 2018, my country's self-produced pork reached 54.04 million tons. In other words, Chinese people basically rely on themselves to raise their own pork consumption.
However, the number of reproductive sows continues to decline this year. Based on the sow reproduction cycle, the number of pigs sold this year and even next year and the supply of pork are bound to be affected.
The huge shock caused by African swine fever to China’s pig industry may directly affect the lives of ordinary people.
The reporter visited and found that the price of pork in Guangzhou has increased by an average of 3-4 yuan/jin in the past two months. The price of ordinary lean meat in a supermarket has increased from 14 yuan/jin to 20 yuan/jin; the price of ribs has increased from 25 yuan/jin to 28 yuan/jin.
"The quantity purchased now is much less than before. Those who bought two ends earlier will now buy one and a half; those who bought one and a half earlier will now buy one." A boss selling pork in the wet market said: "Suffer Affected by African swine fever, there are fewer pigs and fewer people eat pork. Many people eat other foods instead."
In addition to pork, consumers also have other meat options to choose from. Chicken, beef, mutton, and fish are the main alternatives.
Statistics show that in the past 30 years, the relative amount of pork eaten by Chinese people has been decreasing, while the amount of poultry, beef and mutton has increased significantly. In 1987, China's per capita annual consumption of pork, beef and chicken was 16.45 kilograms, 0.69 kilograms and 1.39 kilograms respectively. By 2018, the per capita consumption of pork, beef, mutton and chicken was 38.6 kg, 8 kg and 14.3 kg respectively. It can be seen that over the past 30 years, although the proportion of beef, sheep, and chicken consumption in total meat consumption has increased, pork's status in the world remains unbreakable. In the future, people’s habits of eating pork will not change much.
The increase in poultry production capacity makes it difficult to fill the pork gap
Aunt Li from Chenzhou, Hunan Province goes to the wet market to buy pork every day. Recently, she wanted to change her taste, but she went a little late. The chicken and duck meat in the vegetable market has been sold out.
In the first half of 2019, poultry prices rose sharply in various places. The poultry industry seems to have become the easiest transformation direction for pig farmers.
"A three-yellow chicken or a native chicken can weigh three kilograms after being raised for 120 days. The cost is about 20 yuan. Based on the current price of 9 yuan/jin, you can earn 6 yuan after slaughtering." Yulin City, Guangxi Liang Tiejun, general manager of Junhai Animal Health Co., Ltd., told reporters that the good market situation of broiler chickens this year has given hope to many farmers who have experienced the disaster of African plague. Raising a few chickens in a pig pen is jokingly called "successful heavy production" by industry insiders. A large number of feed companies and distributors have also begun to change careers and enter the poultry industry.
Pang Hongzhi, president of the Guangxi Yulin Animal Husbandry and Fisheries Association, told reporters that the increase in yellow-feather broiler production capacity in Yulin City is about 10%-20%. Based on the national situation, the increase in domestic chicken production capacity should be small. at 30%.
Xin Guochang, director of the Monitoring Information Division of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, analyzed that from the perspective of consumption advantages, production advantages, and price advantages, poultry meat is the most promising meat to replace pork. From the perspective of global consumption trends, from 1961 to 2017, the average annual growth rates of pork and poultry were 2.9% and 4.8% respectively. In 2016, poultry replaced pork as the most consumed meat in the world. He introduced that the potential for increasing domestic poultry meat production is estimated to be 3-3.2 million tons.
According to the "2018 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin", my country's poultry meat production in 2018 was 19.94 million tons, beef 6.44 million tons, mutton 4.75 million tons, and aquatic product production 64.69 million tons. Even if the supply of poultry increases by 30%, or 6 million tons, it will be difficult to make up for the pork gap of approximately 10 million tons.
In addition, due to consumption habits, many people may not be willing to switch from eating pork to chicken. Industry insiders have concerns about the rapid increase in poultry production capacity. Pang Hongzhi said that due to factors such as environment, land resources, financial strength, etc., it is not recommended for broiler chicken breeding enterprises to expand blindly. Taking Yulin as an example, the production capacity change range is within the range of ±10%-20%, which is more scientific and easy to achieve. There will be greater market risks after exceeding the upper limit.
It is difficult to significantly increase the production of cattle, sheep and aquatic products
Meat must be eaten. Some people eat chicken, some eat beef, and some eat fish.
Official data shows that my country’s beef and mutton production in 2018 was only 20% of pork production. If the gap in pork needs to be filled, the current production of beef and mutton is far from sufficient. Restricted by technical problems such as the long reproductive cycle of cattle and sheep and other ruminants, the small number of fetuses produced, and the high feed-to-meat ratio, the production cost of cattle and sheep remains high. Therefore, the threshold for entering cattle and sheep breeding is relatively high. Guo Huiwu, a professor at the Economic Research Office of the National Pig Industry Technology System, believes that there is little certainty that the supply of beef and mutton will increase significantly in a short period of time, and it will have a small substitution effect on pork.
Aquaculture also has its own internal logic. Although the overall amount of aquatic products is not small, there are many types, and the length of the breeding cycle varies greatly. Shorter ones, such as shrimps, can be grown in about 80 days, while longer ones take several years. Some people in the aquaculture industry admitted that it is difficult for aquatic products to quickly replace pork.
Mr. Deng, an industry veteran, told reporters that freshwater farmed fish, such as the four major species of fish and tilapia, are the most promising substitutes for pork among aquatic products due to their affordable prices. However, there are also limitations in the production of aquatic products. According to the industry's own rules, the breeding volume will fluctuate every year. From the current market point of view, the price has not been stimulated by the pork gap. It is expected that the overall output this year will still continue the previous slight increase, and the increase is expected to be no more than 1%. If this year's pork shortage stimulates the aquaculture industry, it is expected that the amount of seedlings invested in 2020 will respond quickly, thereby making up for the pork gap with a certain increase.
There is no doubt that there will be a gap in pork in the short term. If the price of pork skyrockets due to too little supply, it will trigger inflation, which is essentially a problem that people feel.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in June 2019, the national consumer price (CPI) increased by 2.7% year-on-year. Among them, the price of livestock meat increased by 14.4%, affecting the CPI increase by about 0.59 percentage points (the price of pork increased by 21.1%, affecting the CPI increase by about 0.45 percentage points); the price of poultry meat increased by 7.4%, affecting the CPI increase by about 0.09 percentage points.
Lao Cheng from Guangning, Zhaoqing, Guangdong, opened a wonton shop and went to the market to wholesale pork every day. Lao Cheng said that in May 2019, the price of pork was 11 yuan/jin, but by mid-July, it was as high as 18 yuan/jin. Although the amount of pork purchased was reduced from 30 kilograms to 10 kilograms, Lao Cheng still said he couldn't stand it. "I'm planning to open a restaurant where other ingredients can be used instead of pork," he said.